What are the chances of PS3 coming out this year?

[GwymWeepa]

I read a rumor in Game Informer (I believe its the one with Batman Begins on the cover) and its the first time I've heard of a magazine publishing such a rumor, that Sony may release the ps3 fall of this year. I know that 99% of rumors usually turn out to be pure BS, but doesn't anyone find it odd that Sony would be releasing so much info about Cell? I know they'll want to start the hype as soon as possible to help squelch the hype that Xenon has been generating and will continue to generate until E3 (which at that point will explode). What do you think are the chances of the rumor being true? Could Sony release the ps3 this fall? What would it mean to Xenon if it did?

Now before people jump all over me, remember, its pretty much accepted as fact that Xenon will release this year, and that's just a rumor.

Anyway, as for my opinion, I can't imagine Sony being able to pull things together quick enough for an '05 release. They're just trying to generate as much hype as possible as early as possible. I think they'll move up the launch of ps3 if Xenon does well (ps3 won't release late next year, it'll be sometime before Summer IMO). If they could do it, and they did release at the end of the year, MS has precious little chance of surviving in this market, especially if they don't have Halo3 to help them out.

 

[max-pain]

0%

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Aren't Cell dev kits not going to appear 'til this Winter? I still think PS3 will be next Summer at the earliest. Instead Sony will combat XB2 hype with their own hype, including showing of PS3 before XB2 appears, thus stealing the 'thunder'.

Expect some unbelievable 'demos' on PS3 that are totally unrealistic prerendered FMVs that make the XB2 look like a C64

 

[Shinjisan]

Really improbable.
According to Sony's schedule,developers will officially receive the first version of PS3 dev kit next month.Maybe just a few key partners (Square,Namco,Konami) are already working on tech demo for the system (and maybe not even running on actual hardware).
So I think there's no time to launch this year, they could afford a PS2 style launch just in Japan but again,I think they want to use 65nm chips so a March 2006 launch in Japan is the most probable thing at the moment.
If I were in their shoes I would try to have a Japan-Usa launch both in spring 2006 instead.

 

[hey69]

"Japan-Usa launch both in spring 2006 instead."
and why not a EU japan launch if I may ask?

europe has a evenly large userbase then the US.


anyway, i guess also spring 2006 but never say never. lets wait for E3

 

[Xeno]

If Cell is being showcased already maybe STI are now in the the 90nm-65nm transition phase soon to enter production. There's then the unveiling of the PS3 in japan next month and the rumour (?) that PS3 will be playable at E3. It's also possible Dev kits have been shipped under very tight NDAs. Let us not forget Nvidia and Sony have been in-bed for the past two years and nothing was heard except a rumour which was shot down by an Nvidia executive, this means NDAs could be severe for people involved with a PS3 project and that they would even lie to dispell the truth. Does this mean PS3 will release in 2005, no, it's all conjecture but its launch could be closer than expected.

 

[chrisrt2]

I'd say %50/50... There is a %50 chance that it will come out this year and a %50 chance it won't.

 

[wco81]

europe has a evenly large userbase then the US.

Yeah but a lot of those "New Europe" nations aren't going to have a lot of people buying $300 consoles.

This Xmas would be the first Holiday season for the PSP in the US. If they launch the PS3 this year, they will lose PSP sales.[/quote]

 

[Shinjisan]

"Japan-Usa launch both in spring 2006 instead."
and why not a EU japan launch if I may ask?

europe has a evenly large userbase then the US.


anyway, i guess also spring 2006 but never say never. lets wait for E3

You forget that Microsoft is launching Xenon in USA this year,so it's in this country Sony gives them ground,and it's in the US Xbox has enjoyed its major success even outselling PS2 in recent months,in Japan we know it's as it had never existed and in Europe they're just considered a minor competitor in the console business.
Well I honestly expect the next generation to be for Microsoft the same as the current in Japan and Europe.
On the contrary in the US Microsoft could gain as much as 50% market share if Sony doesn't plan well its commercial strategy so it's in that country they have to focus at the beginning.

 

[akira888]

"USA" usually means "NAFTA Zone" anyway in corporate-speak, which is far larger than the EU (plus Norway and Switzerland) is. Not to mention wealthier on average as well as cheaper to operate in.

 

[Pozer]

europe has a evenly large userbase then the US.

Maybe, but localization takes more time and money. Whereas 1 sku can cover all of US and only need slight modification for Canada. Europe alone has traditionally never carried a console that has died in Japan and US for that reason.

btw. PS3 definitly could launch in 2005, but with the worst launch lineup ever in the history of console launches. That would be a huge mistake. Sony can't afford a poor launch.

 

[Qroach]

the only modifcations for canada are on the packaging (including french in the manual), so developing for all of north america isn't a problem.

 

[Megadrive1988]

about as much of a chance as PS2 had coming out in 1999. slim to none, and slim just left town.

 

[AlNom]

the only modifications for canada are done for Quebec

Fixed

 

[Almasy]

How about launching in North America first or at least at the same time than in Japan? I believe it´s very important for them to do that, since it´s precisely in North America where MS could have an oportunity to have a sizeable lead.

Sony could sort out a deal with EA to get a few key titles timed exclusive, extend the partnership with Rockstar, hype the hardware to no end, show MGS/FF/RE and I think MS chances would be slim to none in this territory. I´d imagine launching in march 2006 or so would be optimal.

 

[Kill_Jade]

the only modifications for canada are done for Quebec

Fixed

hmm im pretty sure its done for all of Canada. cause my store receives these modified packaging.

 

[gokickrocks]

i'd say a 1% chance, and that 1% is if someone invents a time machine and brings it back

 

[London Geezer]

i'd say a 1% chance, and that 1% is if someone invents a time machine and brings it back

1% to build a time machine is a bit much.

My guess is, No way. PSP is being released this year in the US and EU, there is no way Sony can successfully manufacture and release another major player, THE major player actually, in the same year they release PSP.

 

[sytaylor]

"USA" usually means "NAFTA Zone" anyway in corporate-speak, which is far larger than the EU (plus Norway and Switzerland) is. Not to mention wealthier on average as well as cheaper to operate in.

NAFTA covers canada, mexico and the USA right? So thats adding what canda's 30 mil to 290mil in the USA? Unless I'm wrong on that 320 million < ~500 million. The reasons for a US launch are better economic circumstances, higher impulse purcahse ratio's and way more hip hop stars

 

[sytaylor]

i'd say a 1% chance, and that 1% is if someone invents a time machine and brings it back

1% to build a time machine is a bit much.

My guess is, No way. PSP is being released this year in the US and EU, there is no way Sony can successfully manufacture and release another major player, THE major player actually, in the same year they release PSP.

Plus I need time to save after i spend far too much money on a launch day PSP and then spend years cursing myself not waiting for the longer battery improved BIOS version.