Vita 2 / PS4 Go?

[Silent_Buddha]

Of course, but epic 'AAA' titles aren't selling that well. It's Nintendo's light, family-friendly games that are selling. Plus Nintendo have the handheld market to themselves. Sony (or MS) releasing a handheld would be going up against NSW. They need a machine that people will choose over mobile gaming and over NSW. What's the market size for that device?

A business decision like this can't be based on someone's gut feeling. It needs decent data.

If the device doesn't improve software sales, it'll be even less profitable and make even less sense as a business decision. After investing R&D and manufacturing, you need to make back that money. Selling at a profit on hardware? Prices it too high. Sell it at cost? Without software sales, it's a lossy project. PlayStation doesn't need a portable to improve its market position in the home console space, so the PR would be pretty worthless.

All of that and more is why MS and Sony are so focused on trying to get streamed games up to an acceptable point. So far, it hasn't gotten to that point where most consumers are satisfied with streamed games. But it's sort of like the Holy Grail for them if they can get it to work as then it can leverage virtually any mobile device at lower risk and cost than a dedicated mobile gaming machine.

I think even Nintendo could see the writing on the wall that a mobile only device is probably a dead end WRT to large sales. They gambled on a hybrid system and so far it is paying off. Even the Switch Lite is just an extension of that ecosystem using the same base hardware so there's no large additional investment for a mobile only device.

You can see this in the performance of the Nintendo 3DS family, it's the worst performing mobile platform that Nintendo has released worldwide even though it was still a successful platform. The NSW is likely to take less than 5 years to sell as many units as the 3DS family sold in over 8 years.

If Nintendo had released another mobile only platform, I don't think it would do nearly as well as the NSW is currently doing. In fact, I think it may actually have done worse than the 3DS family.

Regards,
SB

 

[goonergaz]

Of course, but epic 'AAA' titles aren't selling that well. It's Nintendo's light, family-friendly games that are selling. Plus Nintendo have the handheld market to themselves. Sony (or MS) releasing a handheld would be going up against NSW. They need a machine that people will choose over mobile gaming and over NSW. What's the market size for that device?

AAA titles sell perfectly fine on PS4. Nintendo is Nintendo, I wouldn't get too hung up on Switch as a straight comparison...what you have with switch is Nintendos first handheld since 3DS that is also the first half-decent hardware since Wii...and it's unlike anything before it.

A business decision like this can't be based on someone's gut feeling. It needs decent data.

Where was the data behind Wii or Switch? Sometimes you have to try and take a gamble on where the market is headed - or where the next 'gap' is - Nintendo did this with both the Wii and the Switch (and WiiU but let's ignore that ).- but I do understand what you're saying with regard to Sony taking such a gamble so soon after the PS3/Vita.

If the device doesn't improve software sales, it'll be even less profitable and make even less sense as a business decision. After investing R&D and manufacturing, you need to make back that money. Selling at a profit on hardware? Prices it too high. Sell it at cost? Without software sales, it's a lossy project. PlayStation doesn't need a portable to improve its market position in the home console space, so the PR would be pretty worthless.

Yeah, I get this too - but sometimes it's about locking people into your ecosystem. For people like me PS4lite would be a no brainer, but it's possible that some other gamers might jump onboard from Xbox/PC/Nintendo land who don't normally have time/ability to play on the big screen but are interested in playing some of the great PlayStation exclusives. No data to back that up though

 

[Shifty Geezer]

AAA titles sell perfectly fine on PS4.

AAA titles aren't selling that well on handhelds.

Where was the data behind Wii or Switch? Sometimes you have to try and take a gamble on where the market is headed - or where the next 'gap' is - Nintendo did this with both the Wii and the Switch (and WiiU but let's ignore that ).- but I do understand what you're saying with regard to Sony taking such a gamble so soon after the PS3/Vita.

NSW wasn't a massive gamble. Nintendo was still strong with handhelds so, worst case, it was a new handheld. Wii was a gamble in concept but super cheap too, recycling their previous gen hardware, so losses if they needed to ditch and come up with something new quick wouldn't have been too bad.

I think PlayStation consoles are super solid and not going to be benefited much by a handheld. BC encourages lock-in far better than a $200+ handheld can. PS is already an incredible strong brand. Upon balance, I think the argument is in favour of caution. The only case I can see for a PS4 portable is if the PS4 can be replaced with a portable-capable SOC. So the development is a PS4 replacement that can be sold in a tiny box, and those same innards are placed in a handheld with screen in a portable SKU. If the hardware is unique to a portable, I think it's not worth the risk.

 

[see colon]

I think PlayStation consoles are super solid and not going to be benefited much by a handheld. BC encourages lock-in far better than a $200+ handheld can. PS is already an incredible strong brand. Upon balance, I think the argument is in favour of caution. The only case I can see for a PS4 portable is if the PS4 can be replaced with a portable-capable. So the development is a PS4 replacement that can be sold in a tiny box, and those same innards are placed in a handheld with screen in a portable SKU. If the hardware is unique to a portable, I think it's not worth the risk.

A portable PS4 make no sense to Sony because, unlike Nintendo, they don't make money on hardware. Nintendo can sell a Switch Lite and make a profit, plus whatever someone buys in games. At this point, Sony's new software is going to be shifting to PS5, and to sell a handheld that only plays PS4 games would mean that it would be expensive. More than Switch, for sure, even at a loss. More than the current PS4s, because the hardware cost would be the same, minus the optical drive, but with a screen. And the target audience for such a device would be the same audience Sony has been selling games to digitally for the whole generation, so people would have a deep library already, limiting potential software sales. Storage would be an issue, because you wouldn't want to use a mechanical drive. Solid state storage would drive up the price as well. I don't think many PS4 games would perform well running off SD cards, either.

And before someone brings us backwards compatibility in other consoles not limiting future software sales, that's only been successful when you are launching new hardware and leveraging those previous purchases to get people to buy into a new platform with new games. A portable PS4 would just play PS4 games on the go, not have it's own exclusives. The only way a portable makes sense for Sony is for it to have it's own games, and a full generation of potential software sales to offset the production and marketing costs.

 

[goonergaz]

AAA titles aren't selling that well on handhelds.

Surely pretty much most of the top 10 sellers of the last few handhelds are considered AAA?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_Switch_video_games
https://www.dualshockers.com/top-10-selling-ps-vita-games-us/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PSP_video_games
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_3DS_video_games

I doubt it's technically possible anyway, we'd end up with a PS Vita 2 where it's a cut-down PS3 and doomed to failure unless Sony are willing to poor endless money into it...shame though, because I did love the Vita (and still have my launch unit).

 

[Goodtwin]

NSW wasn't a massive gamble. Nintendo was still strong with handhelds so, worst case, it was a new handheld.

Depends on who you ask. I remember quite a few members here that were skeptical of the Switch even as a handheld because of its size. So while Switch might not have been a missive gamble, Nintendo was putting all its eggs into once basket, unlike the previous generations where they had both handheld and console. If Switch were to have performed very poorly, it would have been a pretty tough burden for the company. Fortunately it has done very well, and because mulipe iterations of portables is an accepted practice, Nintendo can release many different SKU's over the lifetime of the Switch, increasing hardware sales. There will be a lot of Switch Lite's sold to users who already own a Switch, and if they release a Switch Pro down the road, that will again get existing users to make another purchase. Certainly these new models also bring in new users, but early adopters are usually all about buying newer models as they are released as well.

It wasn't that long ago people assumed that mobile was going to completely eliminate the demand for dedicated handhelds. No question it has made an impact, but Nintendo is positioned to offer a lot of exclusive content that is in high demand with gamers. Mobile caters well to the casual non gamer crowd, but people who really enjoy deeper gaming experiences arent going to be satisfied with cell phone games. Sony had a fine piece of hardware with the Vita, but not enough software to really make it appealing. If Vita had an Uncharted, God of War, and Gran Turismo all released within 9 months of launch, it would have been in a much better situation to succeed. Nintendo rolled out Zelda BoTW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 all in 2017. That's a lot of high profile games in 9 months, and it helped propel Switch out of the gate.

Sony would be positioned with the option of splitting software resources between their portable and console or sticking with just the home console where they have pretty much dominated the market since the original PlayStation. There doesn't seem to be a lot of upside for Sony with a portable. It seems more likely that it would hurt their sales on the console side due to less frequent software releases, and there is history suggesting it will be an uphill battle for Sony, made even worse because Nintendo is now fully focusing all their efforts on their portable hardware.

 

[see colon]

The reason why the Switch was a gamble was because it was Nintendo half abandoning the idea of a home games console, not because it was a portable. It worked because the are selling a souped up portable disguised as a home console.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

The reason why the Switch was a gamble was because it was Nintendo half abandoning the idea of a home games console, not because it was a portable. It worked because the are selling a souped up portable disguised as a home console.

I'd argue the gamble Nintendo took with the Switch was convincing people to abandon the notion that a gaming device had to be classified as portable gaming device or a home console. It's both. I prefer Switch as a home console to PS4.

Not to mention most people's homes are bigger than just where their console is plugged in.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think the big gamble with Switch was choosing to have such a large device satisfy their handheld market. I expect that was quite a tough debate around the executive table, with some trying to convince the rest that something that won't fit in a pocket is still going to sell as a portable. Once you're past that, the rest seems pretty straight-forward to me.

 

[cheapchips]

A portable PS4 make no sense to Sony because, unlike Nintendo, they don't make money on hardware.

PS4 at launch was expected to be profitable, or incur a very minor loss.
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/...loss-at-launch?&source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n

The question ends up being, can you manufacture a PS4P at a low enough cost to sell at a reasonable price with worthwhile profit margin?

Customers would likely be existing PS4 customers. They'll probably have a digital library and PSPlus already. Does it increase their digital game purchases? Does it extend their PSPlus subscription? Maybe those are things that edge the retail price of a PS4P closer to loss leading?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

No. It's like saying now we have a hotdog stand, is the steak restaurant going to see the same numbers of lunch-time visitors? Before the hotdog stand, they had no choice but to go to the steak restaurant even if they just wanted something quick and simple. Now consumers have the choice of both, how often are they going to choose the steak restaurant?

So your argument is:
- Customers may not want a AAA handheld console in mass volume, despite the past market indicators of Sony's handhelds (and the anecdotal preferences declared by people who own a PS4) because most people who used to play AAA games on Sony's handhelds may have shifted their videogame preferences and want to play casual games instead.
?

I actually don't have a single PS4 owning friend who wouldn't want to purchase a portable PS4. It's a actually common conversation among us, as we enter our mid 30's with kids and travelling jobs.
Perhaps this would be a nice poll to create.

AAA titles aren't selling that well on handhelds.

They aren't selling well on handhelds because there's currently no handheld platform capable of playing them decently.
As I've shown before, AAA titles were the top sellers on the PSP and Vita, despite both of them having criticallyacclaimed simpler games like LocoRoco and some visual novels.

I think the big gamble with Switch was choosing to have such a large device satisfy their handheld market.

I think it was hardly a big gamble.
Nintendo knows very well how much their non-pocketable DS XL and 3DS XL sales proportions evolved throughout the years, especially with the rise of smartphones.
Everyone is carrying an electronic pocketable device nowadays so the availability for a second one would always be more limited.
Plus, people are progressively preferring the ergonomy and immersiveness of larger screens. E.g. there are no phablets anymore as everything is a phablet nowadays and 5" screens are considered compact.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Profit margin including or excluding R&D costs? Ordinarily these are excluded, so when PS4 sold at cost, that means from that point on selling hardware, no more losses happen, but that doesn't recuperate the costs sunk into creating the thing. For a handheld, it'd need to make a minimum of enough money to pay back the cost of creating it. While for an effective business venture, it needs to make more money from that spent on creating it than could have been made investing in a different project.

What would it cost to create a PS4Portable? Could that be spent on something else with better ROI?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So your argument is:
- Customers may not want a AAA handheld console in mass volume, despite the past market indicators of Sony's handhelds (and the anecdotal preferences declared by people who own a PS4) because most people who used to play AAA games on Sony's handhelds may have shifted their videogame preferences and want to play casual games instead.

Yes, because the market has changed. PSP's success was in a market without mobile gaming. Vita is not successful. It's the flip-side to your argument, and the decision for Sony to invest in a new handheld needs to determine probability of the two possibilities - that AAA handheld gaming is a large, untapped market, or gamers have largely moved on and a PS4P would be a DOA product.

Note I'm not trying to argue that there's no market, but just counter-argue your view that there's certainly a market and Sony should be selling to it. I don't think you can prove that with any degree of certainty and your arguments are just as speculative as mine.

PS4 now supports streaming to Android devices, and PS4 controller support is being added to iOS and Android (already supported on Android but I think it's BT support). Looks like that's Sony's strategy for in-the-home portable gaming. For on-the-go gaming, it's certainly cheaper and more profitable for them if they can get PS gamers using PSNow instead of creating a dedicated handheld.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Yes, because the market has changed. PSP's success was in a market without mobile gaming. Vita is not successful. It's the flip-side to your argument, and the decision for Sony to invest in a new handheld needs to determine probability of the two possibilities - that AAA handheld gaming is a large, untapped market, or gamers have largely moved on and a PS4P would be a DOA product.

Note I'm not trying to argue that there's no market, but just counter-argue your view that there's certainly a market and Sony should be selling to it. I don't think you can prove that with any degree of certainty and your arguments are just as speculative as mine.

PS4 now supports streaming to Android devices, and PS4 controller support is being added to iOS and Android (already supported on Android but I think it's BT support). Looks like that's Sony's strategy for in-the-home portable gaming. For on-the-go gaming, it's certainly cheaper and more profitable for them if they can get PS gamers using PSNow instead of creating a dedicated handheld.

Not only was the Vita not really successful, the 3DS family was also less successful than previous Nintendo handhelds.

To think of it another way, Nintendo were so scared that their business, both home console and handheld were trending down to eventual non-profitability that they abandoned any thoughts of custom hardware and went with an off-the shelf NV product that was created for another market and that had failed so miserably that it was likely offered to Nintendo at a rather large discount. Then they shoehorned it into a case that was just small enough that people might not mind taking it in a backpack or something.

Combine that with their move to release games on Smartphones as a way to prepare the way forward if portable console gaming was indeed at the end of line.

If even Nintendo likely thought there was possibly no future in a portable only device/ecosystem, then what hope does Sony have?

While the NSW was a bit of a gamble, it was likely the only gamble they could make. Their home console business was basically demolished and their handheld business was trending down. R&D on 2 devices would have been expensive. So why not remove most of the R&D by buying an off the shelf part and just make one device?

Regards,
SB

 

[RDGoodla]

SMACH Z can already run MHW with a 14nm SOC. With 7nm+ I think PS4 handheld is technically possible.