The premise of the thread is fairly straightforward; by their looks alone, those games should run better,
That's a fine premise on a game by game basis, but it really has nothing to do with upscaling. I imagine folks here really just aren't familiar with how expensive dynamic lighting is and admittedly outside Fortnite (where I think most will agree the visual upgrade is pretty obvious because it was always dynamic lighting), the games so far don't lean into the dynamic nature very much with time of day or similar systems. Thus people are comparing the look to games with baked lighting, which is obviously far cheaper.
Could these specific games be done with baked lighting? Possibly, with some sacrifices in both lighting and geometric detail. And of course longer development times and less content. But that's certainly not true of all games.
it basically comes down to, "if upscaling didn't exist, this game would be so bad it wouldn't be released."
Right but that argument is silly on the face of it. When Battlefield 4 was released no GPU could run it at 120fps at 4k, or even 60fps at 1440p. The very notion that a GPU has to run it at some arbitrarily-chosen set of settings just because that's what you're used to running last gen games at because they were targeted to GPUs with 10x less power doesn't make sense. Not to belabor the point, but was half res particles a crutch or an optimization? Were any of the myriad of clever approximations (which in the end is all that real time graphics is) crutches or "optimizations"? It's fine to discuss individual choices in detail, but the global notion that a game has to run at X performance at Y resolution or else it's "poorly optimized" is silly. We've done reconstruction for ages - it has just gotten more clever recently.
Ultimately, these games generally *do* run fine on mid-to-high end machines... and I can say that confidently because (unlike I presume many in this thread) I've actually played them. They are more expensive per pixel than games of the past, but they also look better than past dynamically-lit games.
Now as I mentioned above, whether or not people care about dynamic lighting is a separate discussion, and there's no disputing that it is expensive. Similar argument for the higher geometric detail brought by Nanite. Both have some good moments but aren't necessarily pushed as hard overall as they could be in the games discussed here.
Anyways I think I've said my bit at this point. I'd just prefer to steer the chat to specific games and techniques rather than people just making grandiose complaints about arbitrary metrics.