I'll continue this discussion tomorrow.
I dont consider "no, you're wrong", and "no, you're wrong" discussions ones worth continuing.
It doesn't seem like we're offering each other topics worth building upon.
just to clear things up...
How are the other two playing catchup to Sony? They are competing with the PS3, not the PS2.
I was actually referring solely to the PS2, and how MS and Nintendo needed to catch up with it.
I'm sorry, but the number can't be anything. The market doesn't adjust its burdens arbitrarily. While I agree that acceptable price point can vary from time to time, you can just suddenly adjust your asking price and expect people to simply match it.
the PS3's asking price of $500-$600 was the set, original price to begin with.
Why do you think there was such an uproar in gaming circles and the mass media? Sony went from an accepted and expected price point of $300 to $600!
Because people were speculating that Sony would attempt to mimic their former strategy (and perhaps rightfully so) with the PS2, and translate it into a successful formula for the PS3 to follow by. But Sony obviously has other priorities...ie, Blu Ray. Regardless of how relevant that is, its probably the truth.
In addition to this, I think its well established that the PS3 didn't really start sellign in droves until it hit a price point below $200. It will take years for the PS3 to get there even with aggresive pricedrops. You can't think that the public is suddenly going to raise this by much.
Again, we need to understand that the general public's perception of the PS3 will factor into the equation. But it's pretty pointless to debate on this topic, as it seems that our beliefs differ too much regarding mass market price acceptance.
On top of that, regardless of what we think that mass market price is, the fact remains that the Wii and 360 will hit that point BEFORE the PS3. That factors a lot when you pile on the other problems with the PS3 (like coming out late, not having the overwhelming support as before, etc).
that is probably true, yes-if they already haven't. Again, it relates to the product itself.
I simply wanted you to state what you believe a mass market price will be, since you don't agree with mine. An estimate will do.
Then state how long you think it will take Sony to get there, and how they will keep the 3 parties of consumers, developers and shareholders happy.
It is absolutely impossible to determine anything related to this as of now. the mass market acceptance price could be $500 one year from now, or it could be $50, depending on the events that occur within that span of time. It could take Sony one year..two...three...who knows? I'm not sure if you're looking at the broad picture in this. The acceptable price range will be determined by many, many, many things...including, but not limited to, the quality/quantity of games of the console, its features, the general perception (whether accurate or not) of the console, the current situation of its competitors, the success/failures/situations of specific hardware/formats that the console is pushing (in this case, Cell and Blu-Ray)...the list goes on.
I personally could never predict that the 360 would hit such a landmark when Gears came out..but look now. many could have predicted (and the probably did) that the console itself wouldn't cement itself into the market as a product appealing to mass audiences until Halo 3 hit shelves...but that goal may already have been accomplished with the absurd success and praise that Gears is enjoying at this instant. But we'll have to see.
And if we must focus on shareholders...well, what of them? Are they pushing for a Blu-ray home-run? Are they willing to sacrifice the share of one market for another?
Which is more valuable-Blu Ray, or the PS3? This question must be answered before their potential banking on the success of the PS3 is even speculated upon....because its obvious what Sony is dedicated to, as of now. The precious investments Sony has made on PS3 and, more importantly, Blu Ray, and their future, really depend on multiple things. I simply cannot comment on how Sony's going to deal with such a situation, as the situation itself is partly cloaked in undecided events that Sony may or may not have a key role in.
I cannot comment on the consumers or how Sony will appease them. Price drops, killer apps, multimedia features, viral marketing campaigns, bundles, events, meaningless numbers...who's to rightfully say? We're trying to analyze a console's future thats hardly even gotten out of the gate. Furthermore, you ask how they'll appease them until they reach the magic number? Well-dare I go off on this tangent again-the magic number will be altered by everything that I've just gone over....
Price drops, killer apps, multimedia features, viral marketing campaigns, bundles, events, meaningless numbers...
the quality/quantity of games of the console, its features, the general perception (whether accurate or not) of the console, the current situation of its competitors, the success/failures/situations of specific hardware/formats that the console is pushing (in this case, Cell and Blu-Ray)...
Whatever the magic number may be, it will always, always, always be affected by too many things to count. A computer could cost $80,000, but if it prints money, is that considered the "mass market acceptance" number? Maybe i'm not reading you correctly, but it seems to me that you believe that a console will just suddenly start selling better by 50% once it reaches a number that everybody loves. The number will always depend on the product, and even the individual. There's just no way to analyze it and come to a set-in-stone conclusion.
Developers? Well, thats definitely the wild card of the bunch. Sony could tempt them with money...MS could tempt them with more money. Sony could buy them out...MS could buy them out first. Sony could sign a contract...MS could sign a contract and slip them a check with 9 zero's. The Devs may predictably flock to the largest userbase-but if life were that simple, then MS would have monopolized yet another market 3 years ago.
So what do you end up with? A blurry situation that we'll probably never be able to safely analyze. However, I can say without too much risk of uncertainty on my own part (I'm sure you're getting tired of me being indecisive and indifferent towards all of these situations) that third parties will be much more independent in their actions this gen, and much less dedicated to specific consoles, as this race will be a much closer one, without a doubt.
I understand that I'm being an indecisive, complicated bastard, but thats how I've always perceived this console and its future...as well as the future of the console market as a whole. Perhaps thats why I find this topic difficult to swallow, as it seems that, these days, we can never accurately predict anything without being proven completely wrong a week later.