Johnny Awesome
Veteran
The Wii caters primarily to two demographics - Nintendo fans and casual gamers. Nintendo gamers represent probably 15% of the marketplace and casual gamers about 60% of the market IMO. That makes their upper bound around 75% share, but they are getting around 50%, which is VERY good. All the Nintendo fans and about 60% of the casuals. That's a recipe for success.
What's left for MS/Sony are hardcore non-Nintendo fans (25%) and 40% of the casuals (25%) = 50%. In the long run MS & Sony will probably split those fans equally because of Sony strength in Japan and MS strength and early launch in NA.
I also think that Wii will lose some ground with casuals as the novelty wears off so MS/Sony should do better with that crowd late in the generation.
What's left for MS/Sony are hardcore non-Nintendo fans (25%) and 40% of the casuals (25%) = 50%. In the long run MS & Sony will probably split those fans equally because of Sony strength in Japan and MS strength and early launch in NA.
I also think that Wii will lose some ground with casuals as the novelty wears off so MS/Sony should do better with that crowd late in the generation.
