The impact of PS3 in winning the HD Format War

[pascal]

Another impact of PS3:
http://formatwarcentral.com/index.php/2007/12/04/european-blu-ray-sales-top-1-million/

European Blu-ray Sales Top 1 Million
Posted on December 4, 2007 by Dave Cowl
Filed Under Format War, Blu-ray |

Reuters is reporting that Blu-ray movie title sales have passed the 1 million mark. The article states that Blu-ray disc enjoys 73 percent of the European market.

Perhaps even more interesting is the statement that movies plus games combined totals 21 million discs, meaning that game discs outnumber movie discs roughly 20:1. It would seem that having the PS3 use Blu-ray discs not only helps with the hardware install base, it also helps get the disc manufacturing volumes up and costs down by a considerable amount.

Not only disks but the also other parts of the Blu-Ray technology.

Also Blu-Ray has the majority of the japanese market, with a very positive increasing curve for BDs http://formatwarcentral.com/index.php/2007/10/02/blu-ray-to-hd-dvd-sales-ratio-in-japan-up-to-91/
My guess the japanese use more (percentually) the PS3 as a player.

 

[Mintmaster]

What I dont understand is Toshiba lying down in Europe, and even Japan where Blu-ray seems to gathering all of the (admittedly limited) momentum.

Despite DJ12's claim to the contrary, the HD format war has barely started in Europe.

BR made a big hooplah of 1M discs total and a 73% share. That's a victory? 2+ billion DVD's are sold a year worldwide, so we're probably talking about a near 1000:1 ratio in Europe of SD to HD discs. Anyone claiming HD-DVD won in the US in summer 2006 was equally foolish.

Not competing in Europe isn't hurting them now. Compared to the US, there's less return on anything they spend in advertising and subsidies. Might as well wait for more releases and cheaper hardware before making a push.

I don't think Toshiba is really trying to "win" anyway. They just want enough marketshare to avoid extinction, and achieve that goal without subsidies that outweigh their player profits and disc royalties in the long term. They, along with other HD-DVD backers, saw an opportunity to bring a more efficient product into the market (by that I mean cheaper for everyone with very few practical drawbacks). If the HD-DVD camp came up with a 100GB "technically superior" solution that cost more than BR, or if IQ was compromised (say, to the level of the first BR discs), then HD-DVD would be dead in the water.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Wild forever!

/State of Hockey props

1st Place in the Northwest baby

 

[Malo]

That's just not true. It's a pretty damn decent (and flexible) DVD player. Its playback quality as far as HD DVD goes doesn't seem to be lacking either, but it misses out on native output support for the advanced audio formats. All else being equal (and disregarding the different HD disc formats), the PS3 is (probably/IMO) the better HD player of the two, though, and it's definitely the one most likely to serve as a substitute for a standalone DVD/HD unit.

Well from what I've read, the xbox upscaler only works on component, not on HDMI. And it only supports up to 720p for upscaling. The lack of HDMI 1.3 as well yes. I tried to read as many sites as I could find on the difference between the 2 for DVD playing and many stated that the upscaling on the xbox DVD was very poor compared to the PS3 which can to 1080p upscaling over HDMI.

 

[Zaphod]

You got that backwards. The 360 is quite unique in that it will allow upscaling protected content over an analog output, namely VGA. This is a loophole in the DVD spec that now prohibit upscaling over component. Some gray market standalones might still support it but most have closed this down (the PS3 won't do it either).

Spoiler

(Although, they're allowed to upscale unencrypted content. Not sure how either one of them handles this.)

I'm sure it upscales over HDMI as well. No reason for it not to.

Edit: As a sidenote, there have been some hints floating around that adding the HD DVD addon might actually improve SD DVD playback too as there are some AVIVOish software enhancements activated/added that are licensed with the drive.

 

[Malo]

Apparently the Elite will upscale DVD via HDMI to 1080p, however initial responses I've read say they don't really see any difference with the scaler, unlike the PS3. I guess the Elite hasn't been out long enough for anyone to do a direct comparison for PS3 vs Elite upscaling quality, that would be helpful.

Also planning on getting something like the SR805 so I'd like all the audio possibilities that HDMI 1.3 brings.

 

[Zaphod]

Well... While I haven't seen the PS3 in action, much less done a side by side comparison, it might be worthy of note that hometheaterhifi.com (often seen as an authority on such things) kinda' liked the 360 and the HD addon (for DVD).

Spoiler

The PS3, on the other hand, elicited a less than enthusiastic response (to put it mildly). Now, the PS3 was tested pre firmware 1.80, so its failure(s) might not still be relevant, thus I won't put much weight on it. But then again, there are the reports about Nvidia 'cheating' in the HQV benchmark, so what the hell do I know...

I know it's been widely reported that Jason Cross hates it, but he's just one guy for one thing and comparing it to a $1000 player with a video scaler from Silicon Optics using only a benchmark from Silicon Optics (manufactured to make their product look good) seems more than a tad unfair. The test cases are really not all that common and it has been shown that it can be manipulated. HQV is a pretty useless tool for evaluating the overall experience of a device as a DVD player.

At any rate, I'll stick with my evaluation of the 360 as a decent (and flexible) DVD player.

 

[Malo]

Yep thankyou, good to gather as much information as possible. And yes an opinion of the DVD playback pre 1.80 firmware isn't very useful as it doesn't include the upscaling capabilities that came with that firmware obviously. Most information I can find is fairly old, and all half-assed reviews of the Elite state they will test dvd upscaling at a later date.

 

[Florin]

"Consumers have clearly chosen Blu-ray, and we believe that recognizing this preference is the right step in making this great home entertainment experience accessible to the widest possible audience.

So can we now conclude that the relatively large PS3 userbase, which continues to dwarf all other groups of owners of HD-capable players out there, was a critical factor in ending the format war?

 

[SPM]

Some people just won't quit. This is the same well known PR shill posing as an analyst who announced HD-DVD had won and Blu-ray was dead one year ago. Now apparently after hearing the news about Warner, he is claiming both formats are dead . The guy often seems to do PR for Microsoft, so Microsoft's attempts to corner video downloads with it's own formats is probably the reason for this statement.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-dvd5jan05,0,4795448.story?coll=la-home-center

"I think the fat lady just sang," said Rob Enderle, principal analyst with Enderle Group in San Jose. "This gives Blu-ray a decisive lead. The question now is whether it is too little too late."

Enderle said consumers might have moved on to digital downloads to get movies rather than wait to buy them on next-generation DVDs. The next big chance to sell high-definition movie players won't be until next Christmas, he said. "By then, it may all be moot."

Here are a few of his earlier predictions:

Sony's bankrupcy:
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=25539&highlight=enderle
Sony's Last Days

HD-DVD has won:
23rd April 2007
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html
So, if this move by Wal-Mart is true , and it appears to be (but we won’t know for sure for a few months yet), the format war is likely over and Wal-Mart has declared the winner.

Blu-Ray is dead:
27th Aug 2007
http://www.technewsworld.com/story/...get-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml
Blu-ray Loses, Rhapsody/MTV Target iTunes Weakness, Product of the Week


It's clowns like this who make me skeptical about anything I read on the Internet which I can't assess independently. Some guys on the AVS forum are similarly minded.

 

[SPM]

So can we now conclude that the relatively large PS3 userbase, which continues to dwarf all other groups of owners of HD-capable players out there, was a critical factor in ending the format war?

Difficult to argue otherwise.

 

[pascal]

At least here in my country PS3 accounts for probably ~75% of all Active BD players. Yes, it is a small market alone, but my guess most other small markets have the similar profile. See this site statistics with users: http://www.htforum.com/vb/showthread.php?t=40906

HD DVD players are an small percentage in total.

PS3 60/80 GB 117 75,97%
HD-DVD player 12 7,79%
Other (qual?) 11 7,14%
Sony BDP-S1 9 5,84%
PS3 20/40 GB 7 4,55%
Panasonic DMP-BD10 4 2,60%
Samsung BD-P1400 1 0,65%
Pioneer BDP-95FD 1 0,65%
Sony BDP-S300/301 1 0,65%
Samsung BD-P1000 1 0,65%
Pioneer BDP-HD1 1 0,65%
LG BH-100 0 0%
Sharp BD-HP20 0 0%
Philips BDP7100 0 0%
Panasonic DMP-BD30K 0 0%
Samsung BD-P1200 0 0%
Philips BDP9000 0 0%
Pioneer BDP-LX70/70A 0 0%
Pioneer BDP-94HD 0 0%

 

[AlphaWolf]

At least here in my country PS3 accounts for probably ~75% of all Active BD players. Yes, it is a small market alone, but my guess most other small markets have the similar profile. See this site statistics with users: http://www.htforum.com/vb/showthread.php?t=40906

HD DVD players are an small percentage in total.

That was a forum poll?

 

[pascal]

That was a forum poll?

Yes. This is a Home Theater forum site in portuguese. Many videophiles and audiophiles.

Based on the site statistics the average user profile is something like:
- B&W speakers or similar quality
- highend Rotel AVR or some mainstream Denon/Onkyo/HK
- Plasma HDTV (many Panny)
- PS3 (3/4 of all)

 

[AlphaWolf]

Yes. This is a Home Theater forum site in portuguese. Many videophiles and audiophiles.

Based on the site statistics the average user profile is something like:
- B&W speakers or similar quality
- highend Rotel AVR or some mainstream Denon/Onkyo/HK
- Plasma HDTV (many Panny)
- PS3 (3/4 of all)

Well that's perhaps an accurate representation of the sites users, but do you really believe its representative of the population?

 

[pascal]

Well that's perhaps an accurate representation of the sites users, but do you really believe its representative of the population?

Yes.
In case case of player is because for us brazilians:
- PS3 cost around US$ 1,200.00
- BD or HD DVD player cost around US$ 2,500.00

The decision is simple, and the black market is full of PS3.

 

[Zaphod]

So can we now conclude that the relatively large PS3 userbase, which continues to dwarf all other groups of owners of HD-capable players out there, was a critical factor in ending the format war?

As far as 'hard sales' go, no. I don't think so. They're just too small to be all that significant in the grand scheme of things, and I still think that in a competitive situation (all things being equal) the PS3 would eventually be a roadblock to the kind of mass market adoption needed to beat out good old DVD.

Obviously though, all things are not equal, but as for any impact of the PS3: If your (i.e. Warner's) goal by taking sides is to ultimately drive one of the formats from the market ASAP, then the PS3 could have been a factor: Blu-ray would have had a 'last refuge' with the PS3 for years, even if HD DVD continued to outdo them in all other player sales.

No such fallback position for HD DVD.

 

[patsu]

A version of BD Live is already running on PS3 in CES 2008.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=830

Fox was displaying a BD-Live game for the film 'Alien vs Predator' called, "Alien vs Predator vs You". Using a webcam, PC, and Blu-ray BD-Live player, the user captures a picture of their face. This image in then morphed into either an alien, predator, or marine, depending on which character the viewer chooses. Next, the viewer must select which weapons and abilities they want before they enter the game.

After connecting with the server, two players enter into a scene from the actual movie. A pop-up screen shows the face, name, score, and health, along with weapon choices, and even data regarding their opponent. Following the guide, the players must use their weapons and abilities correctly in order to score points and stay alive. When the scene ends, the player with the most points wins.

Another big presence at the booth was Panasonic, who was showing off their DMP-BD30 and DMP-BD50 Blu-ray players, as well as their SC-BD1000 Blu-ray HTIB. Shown for the first time in the US is the Panasonic Blu-ray car system, which they had feeding two displays. The high definition 7" display was noticeably sharper and more colorful when compared to the standard definition display next to it.

Also shown was Panasonic's slim Blu-ray PC drive which will read at 2x and write BD-25s at 2x and BD-50s at 1x. A Panasonic laptop was also on display, though the drive was sold as OEM and there are no current plans to offer a Blu-ray laptop at this time.

The surprise of the show might have been Technicolor who were showing their FACTory Trivia Game. The service, which would be offered at the same time as disc authoring, is a web-based trivia track game. When the disc is inserted, one of many trivia games is downloaded to the player. In Network mode, the viewer is able to challenge up to 3 other players in real-time with score keeping and global stats. The content owners can, at any time, change the trivia questions or monitor activity.

Expanding on what was shown, the representative noted how studios could provide trailers for upcoming films and provide surveys after viewing to gauge consumer reaction. Depending on the results, they could alter the trailer to better suit their needs. Everything was running real-time on a PS3 with BD-Live firmware.

 

[pascal]

If only half true then the impact is high.
http://news.punchjump.com/article.php?id=5371

News
CES 2008: 87% of owners watch Blu-ray movies on PS3
Published: January 8, 2008 9:54 AM PDT
by Marcus Lai


Sony Corp. this week said that 87 percent of Playstation 3 owners watch Blu-ray disc format movies on their PS3.
In the advertisement supplement Blu-ray Today distributed at the 2008 Consumer Electronics Show this week in Las Vegas, NV, Sony Computer Entertainment America senior VP of marketing said that 87 percent of PS3 owners watch Blu-ray movies on their PS3 and 84 percent intend to always purchase or rent Blu-ray movies.

The figures are based on an internal survey conducted by Sony.

The survey counters Blu-ray disc opponents who claim that PS3 owners are not purchasing Blu-ray format movies, making the ownership of the product a non-issue in the high-definition format war.

The latest Playstation model includes a Blu-ray disc drive to view high-definition video out of the box.

Nearly three million PS3 units have been sold in the U.S. to date.

Sony this week said the PS3 has outsold Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox 360 HD DVD Player by nearly 10-to-1 in the U.S.

The Blu-ray Disc Association in Dec. said that 2.7 million players have been sold through to U.S. consumers. The HD DVD Promotions Group in Nov. said that 750,000 HD DVD players have been sold through to consumers.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

I never bought the argument that the vast majority of PS3 owners weren't using their B-r disk playback capabilities. One would have to be rather daft not to play B-r disks on their PS3. It's the entire reason why the console costs more than the alternatives. Why would you pay more for a specific feature and then not use it?