Tax cuts bolster US economy to 7.2% growth rate.

[DemoCoder]

OECD is not a supply-side think tank.

Anyway, part of the differences, as the report suggests are the fact that 1/3 Americans are obese, that cardio-vascular problems are much more common here, and that patients in the US by and large, elect to have surgery rather than focus on prevention early in their lives. This fact alone accounts for alot of the spending differences. Couple that with the fact that every doctor wants to buy the latest and greatest devices, and prescribe the newest medicines and you have a recipe for higher spending.

Boiled down: Americans are fat and sedentary and this places a higher strain on the system. On the other hand, the life expectency average is still around 76 something, (I think Germany is 77.1), reflecting either the fact that even an unhealthy diet can be handled by higher health care spending, OR, probably diminishing returns to life extension and maximum once you reach the late 70s using tradition medical approaches.

Something more exotic (GM, hormonal therapy, organ cloning) will be needed to boost most people past this hurdle. And even then, there is the issue of how to keep the brain healthy, since neurons don't get replaced.

 

[stevem]

OECD is not a supply-side think tank.

Que...?

If you're referring to my previous post, note the mention of thread - as in this forum thread - & not article - as in that of the OECD. I'll edit for clarity. I have a reasonable appreciation of the OECD...

Interesting that you mentioned GM. I'm contributing to a policy monograph on the efficacy/otherwise for LDCs.

 

[DemoCoder]

Sorry, I thought you meant the title of the OECD report, not the title of the thread.

 

[pax]

I would never expect a single tier supplier of HC in the US. But gov program as a safety net would be nice. Certainly the US is rich enough to pay one and it would compete with the private providers and be usefull to scrutinize costs which are literally out of control in some respects...

 

[DemoCoder]

Yes, I agree with that principle. Government should only be there to catch people who fall through the cracks, not to take everyone's choice away on the notion of "cost cutting"

My 401k and market investments have "more overhead" than social security, but I don't want to turn 100% of my savings over to "government low overhead management"

 

[Vince]

And even then, there is the issue of how to keep the brain healthy, since neurons don't get replaced.

This is incorrect.

 

[pax]

Ya recent studies show neurons can get replaced. Brain is not nearly as capable as other tissues of regeneration but it can to a certain degree heal... This is why they are gettng much mnroe aggressive in terating strokes... Insuline is often administered whithin the hour of a stroke if possible to help end the blockage and permit tissue in the affected area to recover more quickly and better...

 

[Vince]

Ya recent studies show neurons can get replaced. Brain is not nearly as capable as other tissues of regeneration but it can to a certain degree heal... This is why they are gettng much mnroe aggressive in terating strokes... Insuline is often administered whithin the hour of a stroke if possible to help end the blockage and permit tissue in the affected area to recover more quickly and better...

To an extent. Although, your examples border on supportative of Democoder's comments as they illustrate just how limited most "true" neuronal replacement is; as in exo/endogenous NPCs as opposed to preventative/'recovery' measures as you're talked of. For example, I've seen work where IGF-1 application in rodents caused no increase in neuron/synaptic density at all. As per NPCs, most have a low temporal duration and provide little functionality on their own - but that's today... and there is some promising results wrt plasticity and possible future avenues.

But, there is a (recent and) growing body of evidence that neurogenesis is actively occurring in Humans. Specifically in the Hippocampus, but perhaps also in other secondary germinal zones such as the SVZ. Much of the work thus far is impressive IMHO and clearly opens the door on this once "folk-psychology" topic as I've once heard it referred to into the mainstream.

Pretty exciting times ahead as there are several avenues that are being advanced in this specific field.

 

[Fred]

Yea Neurons regenerate a little (so recent research shows), but they die at a much larger rate past a certain age.

 

[Sabastian]

Good news, it looks as though the job market in the US has dramitically improved.

Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.0 Percent; Payrolls Soar

Friday, November 07, 2003

The U.S. economy added more than twice the number of jobs expected in October and the jobless rate fell, the government said on Friday in a report offering many signs of broad job market recovery.

The Labor Department (search) also made substantial upward revisions to non-farm payrolls (search) for August and September, a sign sizzling economic growth in the third quarter translated into more jobs.

"We can finally put the nail in the coffin of the jobless recovery," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "We are back on a rising job track."

"Obviously there were very good numbers across the board. More important, though, are the big revisions in August and September upward. Suddenly, here we are with three positive months," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

The number of workers on U.S. payrolls outside the farm sector in October soared 126,000, the largest rise since January, after climbing 125,000 in the previous month. The number far outstripped analyst expectations for a 58,000 gain.

The unemployment rate fell to 6.0 percent, the lowest since April, from 6.1 percent in September. That also beat economist forecasts for the jobless rate to remain unchanged.

Broader economic signs have been on an upward path for several weeks.

The economy grew at a blockbuster 7.2 percent pace in the third quarter of the year. But partly due to huge productivity gains, the job market has been lagging other areas.

The positive employment picture is great news for the holiday season. Consumer confidence should spike, making shoppers more willing to open their wallets. That will help reduce business inventory and lead to new jobs.

Still, the gloom isn't over for all American workers. About 8.8 million remained unemployed last month, with about 2 million without jobs for 27 weeks or more.

The improvement could benefit President Bush, who will be up for re-election next November. Democrats had hoped to use the lack of new jobs as a political issue to win back the White House, and indeed the election is still a year away.

"The most likely scenario is, we'll get enough jobs so it won't be the issue Democrats need to oust the president," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.

A large portion of the payrolls increase came from the service sector, which added 143,000 jobs, the largest climb since January. The Labor Department said a grocery strike and lockout affecting 70,000 workers in Southern California had a net positive impact on employment.

But the hard-hit manufacturing sector continued to shed jobs in October -- 24,000 -- and it was the 37th consecutive month of declines in that area. The pace of job loss, however, has slowed considerably.

The retail trade sector added 30,000 jobs, the education and health services sector created 56,000 jobs and professional and business services rose by 43,000.

In an encouraging sign for the months ahead, the number of hours worked increased to 33.8 in October from 33.7 in September. When companies are poised to boost hiring they often increase the hours worked by their current staff first.

Average hourly earnings also rose, rising to $15.46 from $15.45 the prior month.

Speaking on Thursday after the Labor Department reported a surprisingly large drop in the number of Americans claiming jobless benefits, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (search) said the chances of a job growth pick-up were rising.

However, the Fed chief signaled U.S. interest rates are likely to remain low for some time. At its last policy-setting meeting on Oct. 28, the Fed kept its key federal funds target rate at a 45-year low of 1 percent and said it could hold it there for a considerable period.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,102463,00.html

 

[Natoma]

As ironic as this may sound, the unemployment rate is going to get worse again in the coming months if this is truly a stable job growth market now. Why? The US only counts actively seeking candidates as "unemployed". If it counted all eligible workers who have simply given up trying to get a job, the unemployment rate would actually be 9%.

Once many of those people see the brightening economic prospects and re-enter the workforce in hopes of getting a job, the % will spike again. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 6.5-7% by summer of next year because of that peculiarity in employment rate accounting.

 

[Sabastian]

As ironic as this may sound, the unemployment rate is going to get worse again in the coming months if this is truly a stable job growth market now. Why? The US only counts actively seeking candidates as "unemployed". If it counted all eligible workers who have simply given up trying to get a job, the unemployment rate would actually be 9%.

Once many of those people see the brightening economic prospects and re-enter the workforce in hopes of getting a job, the % will spike again. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 6.5-7% by summer of next year because of that peculiarity in employment rate accounting.

You think that is bad? In Canada the only "unemployed" are on unemployment insurance IIRC.

 

[pax]

No doubt the accounting changes in unemployment stats is heavily pushed by politics of the last 20 years... No gov wants to be seen failing in that dept... So as a temporary fix they simply changed the way they counted. Now eventually there nly so much fidling they can do. Poepl ont he street would eventually rebel if things got too bad... but you can go a ways by pretending things have been getting better for the last few decades.

 

[zurich]

As ironic as this may sound, the unemployment rate is going to get worse again in the coming months if this is truly a stable job growth market now. Why? The US only counts actively seeking candidates as "unemployed". If it counted all eligible workers who have simply given up trying to get a job, the unemployment rate would actually be 9%.

Once many of those people see the brightening economic prospects and re-enter the workforce in hopes of getting a job, the % will spike again. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 6.5-7% by summer of next year because of that peculiarity in employment rate accounting.

You think that is bad? In Canada the only "unemployed" are on unemployment insurance IIRC.

Nope, Canada's definition of 'unemployed' is the same as the US's.

 

[pax]

Even if you dont draw unemployment in canada you can be counted if you present yourself to an agent at least once a month. Im not sure if the us accounting system is exactly the same as in Canada's...

 

[DemoCoder]

The US accounting system is based on direct random sampled phone interviews of people.