Switch 2 Speculation

[Megadrive1988]

Lots of speculation going around.

Some are saying the canceled md-generation Switch upgrade model was the hardware that housed the Nvidia Drake SoC.

 

[Father_Murphy]

After Nintendo set the May 2023 release date for Zelda: TotK, I was sure the next-gen Switch would launch with it. If that holds, they'd need to start marketing the new Switch by, what, late January to mid-February? I understand waiting past Christmas to avoid stalling current Switch sales, but you also need to start building hype for the new machine.

Or perhaps that timeline isn't realistic.... I don't know what that says about the next Switch, though. I would think a mainline Zelda is too stalwart a title to miss the launch of the next Switch, and given Nintendo's cadence of hardware releases, it seems certain there will be new hardware in 2023/2024. If TotK launches 6 to 18 months prior to Switch 2 (so, late '23 to late '24), I'd lay money that Nintendo will provide backwards compatibility for it or, better yet, provide a next-gen patch. Zelda titles are too evergreen to do otherwise.

 

[Newguy]

Would make sense launching 6 years after and with one of their biggest possible titles but they announced the Switch Oct 2016 and launched March 2017 (5 months), that'd mean info is imminent if it was releasing alongside TotK. Maybe they're seeing the Switch's strong sales and don't want to take away that momentum, have another 20m+ year then double dip in 2024 with the successor if things taper off. In the year leading up to release we had a lot of info about it, the likes of Eurogamer and Giantbomb (?) were confirming the specs mid-2016 months before the reveal and we haven't had anything like that yet. That doesn't confirm/deny anything by itself but there's usually a lot more smoke and press hype that builds <= a year out from console launches, not just various murmurs on forums etc

Releasing alongside the new Zelda seemed like a strong candidate but they've said nothing, even for Nintendo it'd be crazy to have their announcement and release so close together. I don't know if they've done that before and if there is a successor in 4 months it's the best kept console launch I can remember, so well done in advance if they have plugged all the leaks

 

[Inuhanyou]

A lot of people are obsessed with switch 2 but I don't think it will happen this year.

Also I'd just be happy to get bc. Your out of your mind if you think Nintendo of all people will bother with bc patches for their games. This is Nintendo after all

 

[Father_Murphy]

@Newguy With the Wii U to Switch transition, Nintendo lost nothing in sales of the Wii U by announcing the Switch in October 2016 ahead of Christmas. The Wii U had failed and everyone knew it. It goes without saying that this transition will occur under patently different circumstances. Moreover, I believe Nintendo, as it had done so far, will continue to follow a release pattern akin to its prior mobile families. That is, iterative releases every 1.5 to 2 years. Compare Nintendo DS - DS Lite - DSi - DSi XL with 3DS - 3DS XL - 2DS - New 3DS - 3DS XL - 2DS XL and Switch - Switch Lite - Switch OLED. Let Microsoft and Sony continue to push out the same "cutting edge" machines in lock step every generation and half-generation in longer strides. As for leaks, we've had them about the T239 chip and whatnot.

@Inuhanyou If I recall correctly, backwards compatibility was mostly a non-issue across the mobile families, right? And, with the next Switch hardware, it isn't likely Nintendo will change the cartridge type, which would physically prevent backwards compatibility (see, e.g., Nintendo removing the GBA slot from the DS with the DSi). The 3DS family was mostly backwards compatible with the DS and DSi, right? That's 15 plus years of backwards compatibility?

I say for Nintendo the time is come for faster hardware. Nintendo can source faster (I'm not saying "cutting edge," that is not the Nintendo way) hardware rather easily (read: cheaply) when replacing an ancient mobile SoC. In May 2023, it'll be over 1.5 years since the release of the OLED. At a minimum, Nintendo could pop out a better SoC with the same OLED screen built-in. Of course, I expect Nintendo will want some hook built-in the new hardware to lure buyers in, but who knows what that will be---Nintendo can be squirrely. But, my point is, the Nintendo mobile console strategy is designed to maintain momentum, and I'm not sure you can do that simply with new color/design options of the OLED when Zelda releases in May.

In isolation, it just makes too much sense for Nintendo to launch a new hardware revision with Zelda in May 2023. But, the consoles are not released in isolation. Nintendo will assess economies, wars, consumer spending, trends, etc. Old patterns aren't sacrosanct. Who knows!? Give us leaks, kopite!

 

[Inuhanyou]

I want to see what Nintendo can do with a GPU that is truly taking advantage of in between 1 to 2 tflops. They have worked great miracles with the current switch even if performance can't keep up with ambition sometimes.

Even if the current tegra they are using can theoretically get close to 1tflop switch isn't using anywhere close to that on the whole, and still has to account for the handheld mode that is actually closer to 360 and PS3.

With switch 2 a truly modernish console I expect to see some truly great things. Especially with a cpu that will likely be stronger than the jaguars of last gen aw well. My only question is what kind of ram configuration they will be using. I am trying to account for all angles in my speculation, Nintendo wanting extra cheap and extra light weight in thermals and heat as well factors heavily into this

 

[Kise Ryota]

Even if the current tegra they are using can theoretically get close to 1tflop

Only FP16

 

[Inuhanyou]

Only FP16

Fp16 you say?

 

[Kise Ryota]

Fp16 you say?

I don't have a good understating about floating-point (FP) but when we talk about TFlops, we usually say the raw number for FP32 (single-precision floating-point). For example, the xbox series x has its 12TF (FP32). If we were talking about FP16 (half-precision floating-point), it would be 24TF.

Tegra X1 has a maximum theoretical performance of 1TF in FP16. It would be 512GFlops in FP32. With the lower clock Nintendo chose for the Switch when docked, we got 393GFlops (235GFlops in handheld).

If Switch 2 ends up using that Tegra 239 (that appeared in the Nvidia hack), and let's suppose they use the same clocks of the current Switch, we would have 1.4TFlops (handheld) and 2.3TFlops (docked). Depending on the node the SoC is made, we could even have higher clocks in both modes. But I prefer to expect the worst case scenario, so the risk of being disappointed is lower lol

 

[Kise Ryota]

If Switch 2 ends up using that Tegra 239 (that appeared in the Nvidia hack), and let's suppose they use the same clocks of the current Switch, we would have 1.4TFlops (handheld) and 2.3TFlops (docked). Depending on the node the SoC is made, we could even have higher clocks in both modes.

Oh, and that's before DLSS, which helps a lot with performance.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Oh, and that's before DLSS, which helps a lot with performance.

If they use it from 1080p or below they could have a potent hybrid system on their hands that much better scales on tv screens than the current switch.

It would still be firmly in last gen territory (to account for that handheld modes constraints and neccesary down clock) but the CPU should be more powerful than the jaguars. Ram configuration?

 

[Kise Ryota]

Ram configuration?

That's one thing the Nvidia hack didn't show us. But I'm extremely confident that it'll be either lpddr5 8GB or 12GB, both with 102GB/s of bandwidth when docked. There's still a chance they could use the lpddr5x, which could increase the bandwidth to ~133GB/s (or they could choose to lower the clocks a bit to consume less power).

I believe this T239 using TSMC N4 node (the same node from current Nvidia GPUs) could hit 2TF in handheld and 3.5TF docked, with the same battery life of 2017 switch. But that's too much for me to dream about lol

 

[Inuhanyou]

That's one thing the Nvidia hack didn't show us. But I'm extremely confident that it'll be either lpddr5 8GB or 12GB, both with 102GB/s of bandwidth when docked. There's still a chance they could use the lpddr5x, which could increase the bandwidth to ~133GB/s (or they could choose to lower the clocks a bit to consume less power).

I believe this T239 using TSMC N4 node (the same node from current Nvidia GPUs) could hit 2TF in handheld and 3.5TF docked, with the same battery life of 2017 switch. But that's too much for me to dream about lol

Never expect so much from Nintendo they will go as conservative as they can

 

[Frenetic Pony]

Never expect so much from Nintendo they will go as conservative as they can

Absolutely. Would hardly be surprised at 2024 either.

Nintendo neither wants nor cares about playing the spec game. Nor do their customers, tons of people still bought the newest Pokemon games and those look awful even for a Switch title.

Nintendo wants some sort of compelling hook to get their specific customer base, someone over there knows the Steamdeck and competitors exist and would rather not being even seen to compete. When you buy from them you're not buying a generic gaming machine, you're buying a Nintendo.

VR is possible, mobile can convert easy enough, a PSVR(1) like experience might be "good enough" and all that can easily be a hook for a Switch 2.

Switching (heh) up the controller stuff is an "always" for Nintendo. Unlike MS they're smart enough to recognize the adaptive triggers and higher rumble range (haptic feedback) are good features from the Dualsense.
On top of that, since the controllers might want to work in VR then low latency, highly accurate tracking is built in. This could double as a Wiimote 2, giving the machine yet another different and Nintendo centric set of things to do.

Those two things, VR and the controller advancement with it's multi use setup, sound like straightforward Nintendo like hooks they could accomplish. Then they'll build the resulting machine around these concepts, balancing cost and battery life and such as they go.

Personally I'm hoping for them to catch the fuck up on digital delivery. C'mon Nintendo, I do not want easily loseable carts I have to pay shipping and then wait around for, get with 20 years ago (literally when Steam launched by next year).

 

[Newguy]

With switch 2 a truly modernish console I expect to see some truly great things. Especially with a cpu that will likely be stronger than the jaguars of last gen aw well.

Should be about 1.7-2x Jaguars 1T performance, depending on clocks and if it's X1 (1.75GHz) or PS4 (1.6GHz). Zen 2 is about 2x Jaguar IPC from memory, A78s are roughly Zen 3/Rocket Lake IPC, which are about 1.2x Zen 2. A78s are also roughly 1.9-2x IPC vs A57s given ARM claims through the years, so assuming 1.2-1.5GHz A78 it'll be about 2.4-3x 1T perf vs 1.02GHz A57. Clocks are that low because the stock X1 had "up to" 2.2GHz A57s and Nintendo still went with 1.02GHz, Orin has the same "up to" 2.2GHz CPU clock so I'm not expecting much. These are Spec2017 1T totals normalised to 1GHz, data from here:

https://www.anandtech.com/show/16983/the-apple-a15-soc-performance-review-faster-more-efficient/2

https://www.anandtech.com/show/17024/apple-m1-max-performance-review/5

https://www.anandtech.com/show/17601/intel-core-i9-13900k-and-i5-13600k-review/6

https://www.anandtech.com/show/1758...ryzen-5-7600x-review-retaking-the-high-end/11

Note that these aren't "full" numbers, the A15 review has no 548.exchange2_r for the Int test and it has 7/12 FP results so isn't as all encompassing. Colours as well I know aren't great but many look very similar so make it difficult to read & compare while keeping things neatly grouped

My only question is what kind of ram configuration they will be using. I am trying to account for all angles in my speculation, Nintendo wanting extra cheap and extra light weight in thermals and heat as well factors heavily into this

That's one thing the Nvidia hack didn't show us. But I'm extremely confident that it'll be either lpddr5 8GB or 12GB, both with 102GB/s of bandwidth when docked. There's still a chance they could use the lpddr5x, which could increase the bandwidth to ~133GB/s (or they could choose to lower the clocks a bit to consume less power).

I feel like it'll be the cheapest available "dual"/quad channel (128 bit wide) LPDDR5 setup, 5500MT/s (slower mass market out?) and 8GB/12GB total. 88GB/s up from 25.6GB/s (docked) would be pretty good with the arch upgrades and come to think of it, probably similar to or better than a lot of Rembrandt laptops with faster iGPUs on paper. I only hope they don't hamstring potential performance with 8GB 6400MT/s (51.2GB/s B/W) to save money

 

[Inuhanyou]

Absolutely. Would hardly be surprised at 2024 either.

Nintendo neither wants nor cares about playing the spec game. Nor do their customers, tons of people still bought the newest Pokemon games and those look awful even for a Switch title.

Nintendo wants some sort of compelling hook to get their specific customer base, someone over there knows the Steamdeck and competitors exist and would rather not being even seen to compete. When you buy from them you're not buying a generic gaming machine, you're buying a Nintendo.

VR is possible, mobile can convert easy enough, a PSVR(1) like experience might be "good enough" and all that can easily be a hook for a Switch 2.

Switching (heh) up the controller stuff is an "always" for Nintendo. Unlike MS they're smart enough to recognize the adaptive triggers and higher rumble range (haptic feedback) are good features from the Dualsense.
On top of that, since the controllers might want to work in VR then low latency, highly accurate tracking is built in. This could double as a Wiimote 2, giving the machine yet another different and Nintendo centric set of things to do.

Those two things, VR and the controller advancement with it's multi use setup, sound like straightforward Nintendo like hooks they could accomplish. Then they'll build the resulting machine around these concepts, balancing cost and battery life and such as they go.

Personally I'm hoping for them to catch the fuck up on digital delivery. C'mon Nintendo, I do not want easily loseable carts I have to pay shipping and then wait around for, get with 20 years ago (literally when Steam launched by next year).

The most positive news is that Nintendo would have to go out of their way to make a system that isn't "in the same general ballpark" as base PS4 and Xbox one.

Devs will be able to make games ambitious enough they could actually target switch and scale up for the stronger trio and PC rather than just skipping switch entirely cause its too much of a hassle to deal with. PS4 isn't a slouch even today in terms of what can be brought out visually

 

[psurge]

I think 64bit LPDDR5(x) with a much larger (say 32 MB?) LLC could be still be pretty interesting, at least in handheld mode.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

I think 64bit LPDDR5(x) with a much larger (say 32 MB?) LLC could be still be pretty interesting, at least in handheld mode.

Nvidia likes there big L2, and 2024 means Ada is likely. But the net effect is still the same. Don't know if LPDDR5X will be considered more expensive by then, but if it's common it's an option.

Could also be looking at Cortex A715 by then. Nvidia isn't interested in keeping super up to date with their CPU cores, but neither is Nintendo. Looking at the Galaxy S22 ultra as a rough proxy, we'd expect 1/3 < Switch 2 < 1/2 the CPU power of the PS5/Series. Good enough to port some games certainly.

For GPU, rough estimate from the 4050 leak puts GPU power at around that of a PS4 to a bit above. Obviously not what some hope for, but well... it's not like Nvidia builds their GPU archs for efficiency/mobile first like Apple/Qualcomm do. Good enough for Nintendo really.

 

[Lurkmass]

A lot of people are obsessed with switch 2 but I don't think it will happen this year.

Also I'd just be happy to get bc. Your out of your mind if you think Nintendo of all people will bother with bc patches for their games. This is Nintendo after all

Depending on how much time there is left between the disclosure of a new platform and launch, they'll usually confirm that there is backwards compatibility at least a year in advance of launch like they did with their last platforms ...

If they decide to reveal the platform itself just several months ahead of launch then they'll likely break the bad news immediately that their new platform won't feature backwards compatibility as was the case with their current platform. The longer they decide stay silent, the more likely it is that their new system won't feature backwards compatibility or they may not have a new platform in development at all in the near future ...

If we don't get any confirmation of a new platform and backwards compatibility later during this year then they'll deny either the latter closer to launch or both possibilities together ...

 

[stiftl]

If we really get a configuration with 1536 shader processors (48 TMUs, 32 ROPs, 48 Tensor Cores, 12 RT Cores) as indicated by the rumors, I think we can get performance close to or even above PS4 (handheld) and PS4 pro / XBoxSeriesS (docked) even with moderate clocks (500-600 MHz handheld, 1,2-1,3GHz docked) with RT capabilities on top. Both from a die size and power envelope perspective this should be feasible on TSMC 4nm process.
Together with 8 A78/A710/A715 CPU cores and 12GB LPDDR5(X) this would actually make a pretty sweet package and I think this would be a reasonable performance target, as it could technically get pretty much all current gen ports.

Probably falls under "wishful thinking", but I'll be happy to eat crow in this case.