Sony To Hold Hour And A Half Investor/Analyst Meeting On November 19th

Yes, didn't word it carefully. That's what I meant. Be the IBM for media services. Lou Gerstner is still on their advisory panel somewhere.
 
So, quarterly report out in ~ 8/9h.

My prediction, 7.4m PS3's shipped, 2.1m PS2s, and 4m PSPs. PS3, PS2 beat forecasts and PSP behind.

NPS profit, but relatively mediocre and not sustainable outside of the holiday season. Group profits at ¥130-170m, again not sustainable outside of a holiday season, but signals that the market it improving and with TVs/PS3s breaking even and a new line-up, profitability is on the cards for FYE 2011.

Anybody else got any ideas?

For the sake of transparency, I own stock in Sony, took a £4000 punt when they were around $19 last March with some money I had after I sold my car (sold my BMW and bought a smaller, cheaper Yaris!).
 
7.4 million PS3's worldwide seems a bit on the low side to me. Granted it was doing really bad prior to the price cut in the US, but I though it was doing relatively better in the rest of the world at that time.

I don't think they hit their prediction of ~13 million (I think that was the number), but it has to be higher than 7.4.

Regards,
SB
 
It's strange but, Peter Dille just put the PS3's sales at 31 m in a recent interview. Since corporate types usually use shipped numbers, it point to a 4.0m shipped quarter for PS3 (they were at 27.0 going in). The only way that could be the case is if PS3 was massively overshipped prior.

I cant imagine that happening, but it was strange. Maybe he meant honest sell through numbers rather than the usual shipped.
 
Silent_Buddha said:
7.4 million PS3's worldwide seems a bit on the low side to me. Granted it was doing really bad prior to the price cut in the US, but I though it was doing relatively better in the rest of the world at that time.

I don't think they hit their prediction of ~13 million (I think that was the number), but it has to be higher than 7.4.

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...

I'm expecting 6.0-7.0.

360 shipped 5.2 for comparison, we know from NPD they sold almost the exact same in the USA over the 3 months. So that leaves Europe and Japan differences in favor of the PS3. I am not sure the Europe difference was all that huge. Anybody have a rough idea how much PS3 sold in Japan in Oct/Nov/Dec from media create weeklies? Even a ballpark figure? I would assume ~1m?
 
Silent_Buddha said:
7.4 million PS3's worldwide seems a bit on the low side to me. Granted it was doing really bad prior to the price cut in the US, but I though it was doing relatively better in the rest of the world at that time.

I don't think they hit their prediction of ~13 million (I think that was the number), but it has to be higher than 7.4.

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...

Well it's Oct-Nov-Dec so none of the pre-pricecut figures are included. Last Q was 3.2m.

13m is for FYE 31/3/2009, so plenty of time to hit it yet. If anything they should beat it (though they won't for accounting reasons). With 7.4m (assuming I'm near the real figure) shipped this Q, it would bring it to 11.7m so far, leaving 1.3m required for Q4.

If there were shortages I would say 6.8m and a stronger Q4, but I think 7.4m is a fair figure.
 
Rangers said:
I'm expecting 6.0-7.0.

360 shipped 5.2 for comparison, we know from NPD they sold almost the exact same in the USA over the 3 months. So that leaves Europe and Japan differences in favor of the PS3. I am not sure the Europe difference was all that huge. Anybody have a rough idea how much PS3 sold in Japan in Oct/Nov/Dec from media create weeklies? Even a ballpark figure? I would assume ~1m?
Click to expand...

The EU difference is much larger than people think, the Nintendo data shows more than a 1.5-2.5m gap (my pixel counting skills are limited!) from October to December and obviously Japan/Asia was around 1m since slim launch and 360 would be around 0.1m.

Even going by your figures you are counting a minimum of 7.2m (1m PAL + 1m JPN + 5.2m base). I say 7.4m because I think there was an overshipment in Q2 because of the slim launch.
 
Silent_Buddha said:
7.4 million PS3's worldwide seems a bit on the low side to me. Granted it was doing really bad prior to the price cut in the US, but I though it was doing relatively better in the rest of the world at that time.

I don't think they hit their prediction of ~13 million (I think that was the number), but it has to be higher than 7.4.

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...

It's 13 million by April...and they are well on the way to that.

I expect around 7.2 million.
 
NathansFortune said:
Well it's Oct-Nov-Dec so none of the pre-pricecut figures are included. Last Q was 3.2m.

13m is for FYE 31/3/2009, so plenty of time to hit it yet. If anything they should beat it (though they won't for accounting reasons). With 7.4m (assuming I'm near the real figure) shipped this Q, it would bring it to 11.7m so far, leaving 1.3m required for Q4.

If there were shortages I would say 6.8m and a stronger Q4, but I think 7.4m is a fair figure.
Click to expand...

Whooops, I was thinking for the entire year. :oops:

For the quarter? Hmmm. I'd say somewhere between 6-7 million worldwide would be a fair guess.

Regards,
SB
 
Rangers said:
It's strange but, Peter Dille just put the PS3's sales at 31 m in a recent interview. Since corporate types usually use shipped numbers, it point to a 4.0m shipped quarter for PS3 (they were at 27.0 going in). The only way that could be the case is if PS3 was massively overshipped prior.

I cant imagine that happening, but it was strange. Maybe he meant honest sell through numbers rather than the usual shipped.
Click to expand...

He used VGChartz numbers. True story.
 
NathansFortune said:
The EU difference is much larger than people think, the Nintendo data shows more than a 1.5-2.5m gap (my pixel counting skills are limited!) from October to December and obviously Japan/Asia was around 1m since slim launch and 360 would be around 0.1m.

Even going by your figures you are counting a minimum of 7.2m (1m PAL + 1m JPN + 5.2m base). I say 7.4m because I think there was an overshipment in Q2 because of the slim launch.
Click to expand...

Are you sure about that Nintendo data? From what I saw, vgchartz was downadjusting their Euro PS3 sales from it.

28l.jpg


Just eyeballing it very roughly, I get maybe +500k PS3.

For example, the first week it looks like PS3 is just under 100k, so we'll say 90k. The 360 looks at about half, so we say 50k. +40k for the PS3 that week.

If you just look at the chart, the PS3 doesnt extend it's lead greatly bigger than the first week on many weeks (I credited the PS3 with +100k one of the weeks as the biggest spread). Around MW2 360 closed the gap a lot. Around Christmas PS3 opened it up. But it worked out to cumulative +500K PS3 for me.

Continuing to play with the numbers (I love numbers), Nintendos charts arent all Europe. Lets be generous and credit PS3 with another +100k for the small parts of Europe. So +600k.

Then Japan, you say the Slim sold 1m since launch. If accurate, I'm going to assume more like 800k in oct/nov/dec (Slim launched in early Sep right?). Lets give PS3 a total sales lead of 1.4 from those.

So we could get a 6.6 number from that (5.2+1.4).

However, the channel seemed pretty dry for PS3 at the end, it could therefore be lower.

OTOH, the rest of the world outside EU/USA/JAPAN (Canada, etc) might show some favored sales to PS3 as well.
 
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Rangers said:
Are you sure about that Nintendo data? From what I saw, vgchartz was downadjusting their Euro PS3 sales from it.
Click to expand...

Honestly I wouldn't trust ioi for anything, he pretends to run an organisation which has real figures etc... but from what we know he has very little coverage of any market (<0.01%), let alone enough to make real numbers out of. He's basically wrong all the time and just corrects stuff in the middle of the night when no one's looking. I don't know about any recent adjustments, but from what my forum members tell me there is a systematic bias against PS3 over there (PS3 adjusted down following NPD/GfK reports, 360 not adjusted when required, which it is on a regular basis).

Numbers from there are highly suspect to say the least.

Edit: Like I said, pixel counting isn't my thing... :)
 
Guys, please let's not turn this into another VGChartz discussion. It's fine to use those numbers here as a point of interest, so long as they are identified as such. The back-and-forth about those numbers has to end though - I don't think there's anyone here that doesn't know there is a string of caveats attached such that it warrants non-stop discussion as to their veracity.
 
Rangers said:
Nah. He said 39m for Xbox, which is their shipped, vgchartz says 37.
Click to expand...

That's the funny thing you see, he uses Microsoft's announced numbers (inflated) and then the deflated VGCatz numbers lol

There are so many idiotic things he says in that interview. I really wouldn't put it past him. He talks about PS2 games on PSN as if they already exist. He then says the PS3 had a slow start due to supply constraints. Honestly. Just ignore everything he says. We find out sold to retailer numbers in a few days.
 
NathansFortune said:
Honestly I wouldn't trust ioi for anything, he pretends to run an organisation which has real figures etc... but from what we know he has very little coverage of any market (<0.01%), let alone enough to make real numbers out of. He's basically wrong all the time and just corrects stuff in the middle of the night when no one's looking. I don't know about any recent adjustments, but from what my forum members tell me there is a systematic bias against PS3 over there (PS3 adjusted down following NPD/GfK reports, 360 not adjusted when required, which it is on a regular basis).

Numbers from there are highly suspect to say the least.

Edit: Like I said, pixel counting isn't my thing... :)
Click to expand...

Which countries is the Nintendo chart based on anyway? I remember it´s a few of the big European countries.

By the way where did you find that recent chart?

It clearly belongs in the European sales thread.
 
I was just commenting on Sony's slow network consolidation. Looks like they escalated it one more level. The new SNE Platform will be the only network division for the entire Sony Group:
http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/02/24/sony_reorganization/

On April 1, SCE will see its name changed to SNE Platform. Sony will form a new company, also called Sony Computer Entertainment, that will take over the areas of the current SCE's business related to the planning, development, production and sales of video game software and hardware. SNE Platform, left with the current SCE's networking business, will be absorbed into Sony.
Click to expand...


EDIT:
Kotaku has more here:
http://kotaku.com/5478924/sony-computer-entertainment-to-become-snep-temporarily
 
So...um...they're changing SCE into SNEP, and then reforming SCE to lose the network bit? Why not keep SCE and move the network stuff from SCE to a newly formed SNEP?
 
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