lopri said:
Then let me ask you. If you think this AMD-ATI merger would be basically AMD absorbing ATI and consiquently mid-high end GPU market would be dominated by NV in the future, why would this deal upset NV? (Well at least analysists think so)
Because of chipset market? I don't think so. NV would happily move on with Intel chipset, and would not lose out on AMD chipset market, either.
Its quite a bit more complex then just AMD abosbing ATi, and ATi then will have thier own fabs. First, are thier chip designs ready for AMD fabs? Going from TSMC to UMC ATi would have to layout thier entire chip again. Then you have to concider GPU's are quite a bit more complex then CPU's.
Then you have the dynamics of such a merger, will it really hurt nV or help ATi or vice versa? I really don't think there will be much change in the short term, because the business model of ATi really won't change much. What will hurt them, will be ATi's loss or rather barred by AMD to make Intel's chipsets, and this will likely happen. nV will have intel chips sets all to themselves but not in the short term, it will be more of a mid term gain.
Short term it might help ATi because of AMD's capital. But to get these chips into AMD's fabs will probably be quite a bit work, AMD needs production space which they are sorely lacking right now.
Cost will end up very similiar, the only cost that will be subsiidised will cost of labor to get the chips going in the manufacturing process of the chips, and comparative to other costs this will be very miniscule since AMD will still have to pay thier own employees, and the cost difference is TSMC's or outsourcing fab's profits which if AMD is making in German or where ever thier fabs are thier cost per employee will be quite a bit higher then Tiawan, and other "semi" industrial nations. Raw materials will cost the same. AMD going to 65 nm, with a less complex chip with less transistors per chip, compaired to ATi's top end GPU's, at the moment even if TSMC or any other ousourcing fab had 65 nm working it will take some time to get a chip ready to manufacture on those processes. I'm sure even at 80nm both compaines will have some issues with yeilds in the beginning, possible need 2 or 3 attempts before they get it right. This would be at least a 1 or 2 generation goal not a short term goal going to .65 at AMD's fabs.
As mentioned earlier CPU's life cylces are much longer then GPU's so changing fab processes would grant some benefits but greater benefits are actually design of the GPU and its components. AMD did just fine competing with Intel with larger chips and not as agressive on the fab processes. nV did well also but to a lesser extent.
Now what are the longer term goals of AMD with such and aquisition. Benefits as mentioned earilier would be a CPU/GPU hybrid, which I really don't will sit well against a discreet option and chipsets. Also is AMD's goal to make GPU's right now? Which markets are they looking at. One would think, AMD's goal is to secure the CPU side of things before they move on to other aspects. Chipset side, well yeah AMD can now get thier own chipset but if you look at Intel why did they go to ATi for thier latest chipset even though Intel has the chipset market to itself? Must be a reason. I'm guessing Intel understood if people are going to buy AMD well which chipsets are they getting? Not ones made by AMD since they don't make thier own. Over all Intel chipsets aren't the greatest, so they went with ATi.
The main long term goal from AMD's stand point is diversification hand helds and get a inhouse chipset design team. Not GPU's it might be something they will look into but this will take second seat to stop Intel in the CPU front.
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