PS3 sales prediction (from different view)

[Sankari]

So lately its been doom and gloom predictions for Sony so I'll add something different here.

Strategic Analytics predicts that the PlayStation 3 will overcome Microsoft's current market share differential by the close of 2007, and Sony's own market home console dominance will gradually rise year after year to almost 60% market share by the year 2012. Where actual units sales are concerned during that six-year period, the PlayStation 3 is predicted to vastly outperform the competition and gather a staggering 121.8 million sales, while the Xbox 360 will reach a modest 59.7 million sales, and the Nintendo Wii will likely mark another nail in Nintendo's home hardware coffin through a dismal sales return of only 23.3 million units.

http://play.tm/story/8559

So what this prediction is saying that Ps3 will exceed PS2 sales (highly unlikely at the moment but it could happen). Its also stating that the console gaming market will actually grow this gen and Microsoft will be able to double theyr user base compared to Xbox which is naturally good performance. The Wii numbers are rather low IMO.

Well this will be the most interesting console war for years, no doubt about it. See you again in 2012!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'd love to know how they came to predict growth for PlayStation, and a miserable showing for Wii.

Actually, I wouldn't. Pie in the sky figures, all these predictions are. Rational reasoning doesn't come into it and can't, because human choices can't be predicted that far in advance.

 

[22psi]

Can I predict too??

 

[Cartoon Corpse]

they'd better come out with some solid games. i haven't seen anything i would get it for so far. i'll wait till then....maybe the next GTA? (out a year b4 pc version...) if they keyboard/mouse works as expected i can see taking that step.

 

[cthellis42]

I predict the PS3 will only sell 17 working units, the 360 will be found out to be named for the 360 patent violations it had and get Microsoft sued into oblivion, and the Wii will sell more units than there are people on the earth due to a desire for families to make more babies to be able to play all the party games together.

I think I applied approximately as much thought as the previous prediction.

 

[NERO]

I'd really like to know which "strategic analysts" made these predictions. It is way too early in the console war to predict the 4th quarter of 07 let alone 6 years! Either way any reasonable person knows these predictions are meaningless and only purposeful to a bored poster.

Some interesting variables to look at in order to predict the next year or two fit into a pretty simple formula.

- how quickly will production ramp up for the console makers.
- which exclusives will stay exclusive.
- will the strength of brand names (ex. playstation name) stay strong to the point that consumers blindly purchase based upon said name.
- will developers switch allegiances due to loss/gain of marketshare.

There are other variables to add but the fourth in my list is the most important because it can cause a vicious cycle for a console that fumbles early on.

 

[Sankari]

Well I know its just an prediction, all predictions are dumb at this point but might aswell put it here just like all the other predictions, instead this was sunshine for PS3 unlike the others were doom and gloom.

This scenario would naturally be good for every other company except Nintendo, though Sony would probably become more confident with these numbers and come back with PS4 and 800-900$ price tag.

 

[Nesh]

Can I predict too??

if THEY make predictions and get PAID ON TOP OF THAT, yes you can. It will be funny to compare these predictions with the actual numbers in the future

 

[Cartoon Corpse]

they need a killer app (game). i don't see one yet. since they are losing (attack of the show) an estimated $200 per box, i assume they have some remarkable gaming in the pipeline...just when it'll hit is anybodies guess. i don't get console mags, etc....are there any killer looking apps in the near future for PS3?