I think this is a very worthwhile discussion. On paper it looks like no competition:
300M transisters vs. 150M transisters.
Game over... right?
But we know hardly anything about the chips, but what we do know is worth a momement of pause. The RSX does 128bit pixel percision and Nvidia really hit on the difference between 32bit HDR effects and 128bit HDR effects. But think back to FarCry--HDR at 1024x768 was well below 60fps--with no anti aliasing. Of the 55GB/s RSX shares with CELL it gets ~22GB/s of that for frame buffer. The 6800U with 35GB/s bandwidth chokes at 1024x768 with HDR and no AA.
So can we realistically expect 1080p at 60fps with HDR? What about AA? It is possible... just a question.
But I cringe at the thought of a feature that takes up a lot of silicone being unusable. Call me pessimistic, but Nvidia has a long history of introducing features that require more features than the system can realistically perform (fyi, I am running a 6800GT right now, I am not anti Nvidia, just being honest about their track record).
This also relates to the memory design: The GPU having access to two pools sounds nice, but it sounds like yet another balancing act. To compete with the 23GB/s + eDRAM X360 design it was necessary, but accessing one large fast pool and a fast framebuffer versus accessing two separate pools one for framebuffer and content and the other for whatever you cannot fit in seems like it could be a recipe for headaches. It is nice there is the bandwidth there, but I think it closes up the flexibility of the system. What if doing 218GFLOPs requires access to more than 256MB of memory for a certain game (like the satalite photo + height map demo). Or being more realistic, if CELL is doing a ton of physics, AA, and other intense CPU tasks it may require the bandwidth of the XDR, that means the GPU has the 23GB/s for all its graphical needs+framebuffer. While both systems will require some balancing, it looks like PS3 gives less options (at least less options without jumping through hoops).
Another question is did the video encoding/decoding hardware get left on the chip? It is pretty useless with CELL, but that would be another area where the transister counter would be inflated, rendering a comparison on transister budget useless.
The next question is configuration. With tweaks of SM 3.0 features and the inclusion of 128bit pixel percision cutting into the 88M transister difference between NV40 and G70, it would seem the guesses of a 24PS pipe part seem realistic (I have heard 10-14 VS, but I am not sure anyone knows yet).
And with a bump from 400MHz/16PS for the NV40 to 550MHz/24PS for the G70, that would look like 2x the performance. I know this is not scientific, but it should be ballparkish: 400*16 = is 6,400; 550*24 = 13,200. Add in the tweaks the G70 has and it is easy to see how it should be at least 2x as fast as the NV40.
That is impressive--but it is exactly what our PCs will be outputting come fall/spring. Of course the PS3 has a better CPU for gaming and is a closed box.
But if the above is true of the RSX/G70, I am not sure the R500 is going to be underpowered. Again, we do not know much about the R500's featureset, and since it is a new architecture there are a lot of questions about how it compares to traditional parts.
But there seems to be a significant gap in philosophy. First it seems pretty clear the R500 is completely designed to be a console part. The fill rate is not over inflated for its needs and it does not seem to be a legacy part. And Jawed has summerized it summerized it well in another post: The R500 will perform like a 8 pipe part in non-Shader intensive games BUT in PS heavy games it will be like a 48 pipeline part (of course we do not know the quality of thise "pipes" compares to the traditional GPUs we are currently used to).
R500 in this regards looks very clean and very flexibile.
The other area is the eDRAM. 256GB/s of effective bandwidth (64GB/s real?) should smooth out a lot of hiccups. Having your framebuffer as a separate pool means less drain on the main memory. I have wondered if HDR like effects are possible with such a small framebuffer though (but from what I have heard the GPU can write to the system memory also--can it tile the information from the framebuffer to the main memory?)
So on shere size the RSX looks to own, but the few details we have seem to give a good reason to pause (at least they do for me). I think we very well will see that each design has Pros and Cons. Just like desktop GPUs, they may excell in different game situations.
Then again one may just flat outperform the other. We do not know yet, but it will be fun finding out more about these chips. I am especially curious about the FEATURES of these chips. Tesselation, advance displacement mapping features, what flow/branch control improvements there have been, what percision the R500 is rendering, etc.