Nvidia Blackwell Architecture Speculation

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iroboto said:
is 16GB of vram enough for 4-5 years of gaming? How is everyone feeling on this number?
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Of course. 8gb of VRAM is still going to be the low end for like 7 years at this rate, so 16gb is enough. Next gen nobody is going to make games that don't run on low end hardware, the profit is just not there.
 
I've mentioned this before but answering that without more specific criteria is impossible. Posed in such an open ended way I'm betting people can't even have broad consensus on when (or even if) 8GB is not enough. Or how much VRAM was enough up to 2020 just in terms of looking at the past without having to forecast for future developments.

Next gen GPUs (as in ~2 years from now) will likely carry the following VRAM -

12GB, 18GB, 24GB, 32GB, and 48GB. These numbers will likely plateau for at least for the following generation as well if not longer.

Next gen consoles will likely be either 24GB or 32GB.
 
iroboto said:
is 16GB of vram enough for 4-5 years of gaming? How is everyone feeling on this number?
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It's probably fine but for the $1000+ cards I'd wait for 24GB versions at this point. Consider that shortly we could see midrange cards with 18GB. It's unknown how soon that will happen but it will be a technical possibility in the near future.
 
Charlietus said:
Of course. 8gb of VRAM is still going to be the low end for like 7 years at this rate, so 16gb is enough. Next gen nobody is going to make games that don't run on low end hardware, the profit is just not there.
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So like Doom Dark Ages is 16GB of VRAM or more at max settings. That's where my concern is. 32GB of VRAM looks solid to last you a long time. But it's also 2x the cost, and part of me would rather pay $1000 now, and 4-5 years from now another $1000 and the architecture and tech would all be refreshed as well. I assume VRAM will be up, but it would still be somewhat tight.
 
iroboto said:
So like Doom Dark Ages is 16GB of VRAM or more at max settings. That's where my concern is. 32GB of VRAM looks solid to last you a long time. But it's also 2x the cost, and part of me would rather pay $1000 now, and 4-5 years from now another $1000 and the architecture and tech would all be refreshed as well. I assume VRAM will be up, but it would still be somewhat tight.
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Sure, at max settings. Is the video card you're speaking about able to play such a game at max settings though, irrespective of VRAM?
 
Albuquerque said:
Sure, at max settings. Is the video card you're speaking about able to play such a game at max settings though, irrespective of VRAM?
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You mean the 5080? Surely it can run the game at max settings.

FG/MFG throws an interesting wrinkle, since it allows you to run at higher settings which uses more VRAM and it also just uses more VRAM.
 
iroboto said:
So like Doom Dark Ages is 16GB of VRAM or more at max settings. That's where my concern is. 32GB of VRAM looks solid to last you a long time. But it's also 2x the cost, and part of me would rather pay $1000 now, and 4-5 years from now another $1000 and the architecture and tech would all be refreshed as well. I assume VRAM will be up, but it would still be somewhat tight.
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I would assume that until next gen consoles arrive, 16gb will be fine for max settings. So that would be around three years. After that, who knows. But I don't expect a PS6 to have more than 20gb of VRAM usable by the GPU.
 
I have to imagine that next year we’ll get a 5080ti with 24GB from a cutdown GB202 die.

The physical and price gulf between the 5090 and 5080 is so big that it would be easy to slot in another SKU (with a similar bus size and SM count to the 4090).
 
iroboto said:
is 16GB of vram enough for 4-5 years of gaming? How is everyone feeling on this number?
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Depends on what is "enough" in your opinion.
1440p with console like settings? Probably yes. Even next console generation is unlikely to have a momentary effect on VRAM usage as there will be another long crossgen period most likely.
4K with maximum settings (path tracing, etc)? Probably no. But you will still be able to play these games by dropping a setting or two - which is absolutely fine when we're talking about the span of 4-5 years ahead.
 
McHuj said:
I have to imagine that next year we’ll get a 5080ti with 24GB from a cutdown GB202 die.

The physical and price gulf between the 5090 and 5080 is so big that it would be easy to slot in another SKU (with a similar bus size and SM count to the 4090).
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I was thinking something like a 5080 Super. A nominally overclocked 5080 (GB203) with 3GB GDDR7 modules for 24GB total. I wouldn't hold my breath for a cut down GB202. 5090/5090D will almost certainly be supply limited so unless there are yield problems there's little motivation for NVIDIA on that front.
 
homerdog said:
I was thinking something like a 5080 Super. A nominally overclocked 5080 (GB203) with 3GB GDDR7 modules for 24GB total. I wouldn't hold my breath for a cut down GB202. 5090/5090D will almost certainly be supply limited so unless there are yield problems there's little motivation for NVIDIA on that front.
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It’s not unthinkable they’ll do a 5080 Ti if they have enough dies below 5090 spec, but even if they do it’ll probably be ~4090 performance at 4090 prices. Might as well just buy a 4090 now unless you really really want MFG.
 
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