NPD May 2017 Sales Results

Shortbread

Shortbread

Island Hopper
Legend
Silent_Buddha said:
So, looking at mediacreate from Japan again.

Last week, marked the first time that PS4 was more than 1/2 of Switch sales, but this week Switch sales increased while PS4 sales decreased. Not quite 1/2 of Switch sales but close. Switch still remains under 30k per week and should easily do well over 100k for the month.

Something else interesting to note. The PS Vita version of Minecraft has sold over 1.1 million units to date in Japan. That's absolutely massive for a non-Japanese developed title in Japan. I can only imagine how crazy sales of the Switch version of Minecraft is going to be when it releases.

Also, as I expected, post E3 prices for the Switch have jumped. It's now averaging between 399 and 440 USD. It had been pretty steady at 390-430 USD for a few weeks prior to E3. :( Demand has jumped yet again in the US, and supply has obviously not come close to matching the demand for the console.

I can't wait for May NPD numbers to see if stock did actually increase in the US for May as Nintendo claimed it would.

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...

Per Yjynx and wachie at @NeoGaf

May NPD (Sony #1)
Sony PS4 >200K
Nintendo Switch <200K

Sony
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Xbox is in terrible shape at the moment. Maybe sales between Nov-Dec will bounce back with the arrival of XBO-X.
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Per ZHugeEX

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GTA V will never die and every U.S. Switch owner must have purchased TLoZ: Breath of the Wild.
 
Results... http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1394470

Hardware:

PlayStation 4: #1

Notes:
- “Year to date, hardware spending has grown 18 percent as gains in console spending have offset declines in portable.”
- “On a time-aligned basis over each product’s first 43 months in market, the combined installed base of Sony’s PlayStation 4 and Microsoft’s Xbox One now exceeds the combined installed base of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by 29 percent.”
- "Hardware spending grew 7 percent compared to May 2016, to $147 million. Nintendo Switch continues to be the primary catalyst for hardware spending gains, as it has since launching in March 2017.”
Click to expand...

Physical and Steam PC software sales (for AAA games from participating publishers) were down 48% year over year.
Click to expand...

I guess my recent spending spree at Steam didn't quite help...:(
 
Shortbread said:
Per Yjynx and wachie at @NeoGaf

May NPD (Sony #1)
Sony PS4 >200K
Nintendo Switch <200K
Click to expand...

So, if that's true then supply actually decreased in May compared to April for the Switch. Ugh. Which means that the Switch is suffering from manufacturing problems, likely some components are in limited supply. Possibly NAND as someone speculated before as shortages in NAND have been driving up prices on SSDs.

This might also explain the lower Switch sales in Japan as well. It may not be lower demand, but limited supply. That matches with Tongue-in-can-never-remember-all-of-his-name's experience trying to get one in Japan.

Regards,
SB
 
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How can GAF make those YoY/LTD monthly graphs when we dont have anything but EXTREMELY crude estimates anymore? What's the point really when we have no precision and numbers could be off by 10's of k?
 
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Certain GAF members (not including the actual NPD people) have access to the actual numbers; not sure if they are the ones making the graphs though.

4 PS4 games and 3 Nintendo games in the top 20, and not a single XB1 game. Even a PSVR-only title is in the top 20 at 16 (Farpoint). This software drought is really not helping XB1.
 
Meh, there were entire past holidays PS4 had little in terms of triple A exclusives, it didn't do much. Also, XB1 had Halo Wars 2 at the same time Sony had HZD. So the difference was Nier and Niogh, which are niche Japan centric titles (yes I know they sold/shipped a million+ worldwide). This fall AFAIK Xbox again has Crackdown 3 and Forza 7, whereas I'm only aware of GT Sport for major PS exclusives not counting DLC (oh boy, here come long lists, I've done it now).

Hardware not software...of course PS4 is winning while Pro is out and X1X isn't. But we dont have numbers to say how much. Things will get more interesting soon.

The fact Farpoint is in #16, a VR only game right? Makes me wonder just how dead these charts may be...

Anyways i predicted PS4 would win every month from Pro to Scorpio (I forgot Switch existed, so technically I wasn't wrong since I just meant PS vs Xbox). Only a handful left, looks to happen. If anything I thought Pro would do much better (that was my pre release thought, I thought it would do 80+% PS share), as is I think it's basically adding maybe 10-30% to what PS4 would otherwise be doing, which makes the PS4 sales pretty healthy.

Lets say I would in turn be VERY surprised if PS4 wins all the next 12 months from X1X release...although it could certainly win many.
 
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Not saying exclusives would dramatically help XB1. At this point in the game, I think games and price are what keeps these systems going. PS4 is at least staying up YoY, and this is with more competition.

You may think Nioh and NieR are niche titles, but they both charted in the top 10 in their respective months, which Halo Wars 2 did not accomplish. NieR is still in the top 20, and digital Nioh sales aren't included. MLB The Show is another title, and it's still in the top 10, 2 months after release.

There are quite a few PS4 games you forgot to mention that release later this year, but they aren't big AAA games so I won't bother. :p I wouldn't really consider Crackdown a big AAA title either; Crackdown 2 sold just over 200k in its opening month. And Forza seems to sell better in EU.

It will be an interesting holiday season. MS is probably the favorite with the XB1X hype and all the pre-orders they're getting. But Sony has marketing rights for most of the major multiplatform games, and some sort of PS4 Pro deal is very likely, so I wouldn't count them out yet.
 
Now that you mention it I guess Xb1X may be the fave it's launch month. There's no preorders yet though, so i'm not sure how they can be high.

$499 could well prevent X1X from reaching certain sales heights. I'm certain in the long term it's going to be a handful for Sony, but the question is how long it will have to stretch it's legs before Ps5 or whatever.

But if Ps4 Pro is adding like 20% of sales to "normal" PS4 sales, X1X should certainly be able to at least fill that role. It seems to me like Ms is hyping X1X much more than Sony ever did Pro, so that's a difference, but once again there's $499 too.

Digital Niogh sales should be included BTW, Sony joined the digital reporting. Nier didn't chart in the top 10 in it's release month, either. Not that I really dispute your point.

Lets limit our "triple A" test to at least packaged retail North America releases...

I dont know about your crackdown info either, found some wiki claiming 1.12 m lifetime sales but who knows where they got their info. It did evidently take #1 two weeks in UK though https://www.engadget.com/2010/07/19/crackdown-2-holds-on-to-top-uk-sales-spot-xbox-360-s-has-solid/ .
 
Rangers said:
Now that you mention it I guess Xb1X may be the fave it's launch month. There's no preorders yet though, so i'm not sure how they can be high.

$499 could well prevent X1X from reaching certain sales heights. I'm certain in the long term it's going to be a handful for Sony, but the question is how long it will have to stretch it's legs before Ps5 or whatever.
Click to expand...
499 will be a bigger limiting factor months after release. At launch and whenever they open pre-orders up, it will sell a lot. The fact that it's a bigger jump than Pro over the base model, and MS will probably put out a big marketing push for it, it will sell a lot at launch.

But if Ps4 Pro is adding like 20% of sales to "normal" PS4 sales, X1X should certainly be able to at least fill that role. It seems to me like Ms is hyping X1X much more than Sony ever did Pro, so that's a difference, but once again there's $499 too.
Click to expand...
PS4 isn't really adding 20%. You have to factor in the sales that Pro is taking away from regular PS4 sales.
But, at least in the first few months, I think the X1X/X1S split will be quite a bit higher than the Pro/PS4 split for the reasons I mentioned above.

Digital Niogh sales should be included BTW, Sony joined the digital reporting. Nier didn't chart in the top 10 in it's release month, either. Not that I really dispute your point.
I suppose you're right about Nioh. Sony joined the digital reporting, but they missed a month or two of sales, but that doesn't affect May sales I guess.
But you're wrong about NieR.
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NieR released in March in NA (February in Japan),where it charted 9th and is still in the top 20. Source: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1362489

Also forgot about Persona 5...I believe it was 2nd in April. Another thought to be niche JRPG with surprisingly good sales.
Lets limit our "triple A" test to at least packaged retail North America releases...
Click to expand...
I really don't want to play listing wars. But I count at least 6 retail-only PS4 games releasing in August or later. That's not including digital-only games or any DLCs. Mind you, most of them are smaller titles, hence why I think this is a pointless debate, as neither system has any, what I would consider, big AAA games this holiday season. Forza 7 and GTS are probably the biggest.

I dont know about your crackdown info either, found some wiki claiming 1.12 m lifetime sales but who knows where they got their info. It did evidently take #1 two weeks in UK though https://www.engadget.com/2010/07/19/crackdown-2-holds-on-to-top-uk-sales-spot-xbox-360-s-has-solid/ .
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1.12M lifetime, worldwide. Since this is a NPD thread, I only included US sales, and specified that it opened at just over 200k. ;)
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2010/08/12/july-2010-npd-results-revealed/

Forza 6 also didn't make the top 10 in its release month. Again, it seems to do better in EU.
 
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Halo wars 2 sales were low, Horizon Zero Dawn sales are great

2017 YTD:
Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Wildlands
For Honor
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Horizon Zero Dawn
Grand Theft Auto V
Mass Effect: Andromeda
Resident Evil 7: Biohazard
NBA 2K17
Injustice
Click to expand...

HZD is the fourth best selling title in US since the beginning of the year

Exclusives are good but you need popular title too...

djskribbles said:
499 will be a bigger limiting factor months after release. At launch and whenever they open pre-orders up, it will sell a lot. The fact that it's a bigger jump than Pro over the base model, and MS will probably put out a big marketing push for it, it will sell a lot at launch.


PS4 isn't really adding 20%. You have to factor in the sales that Pro is taking away from regular PS4 sales.
But, at least in the first few months, I think the X1X/X1S split will be quite a bit higher than the Pro/PS4 split for the reasons I mentioned above.


NieR released in March in NA (February in Japan),where it charted 9th and is still in the top 20. Source: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1362489

Also forgot about Persona 5...I believe it was 2nd in April. Another thought to be niche JRPG with surprisingly good sales.

I really don't want to play listing wars. But I count at least 6 retail-only PS4 games releasing in August or later. That's not including digital-only games or any DLCs. Mind you, most of them are smaller titles, hence why I think this is a pointless debate, as neither system has any, what I would consider, big AAA games this holiday season. Forza 7 and GTS are probably the biggest.


1.12M lifetime, worldwide. Since this is a NPD thread, I only included US sales, and specified that it opened at just over 200k. ;)
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2010/08/12/july-2010-npd-results-revealed/

Forza 6 also didn't make the top 10 in its release month. Again, it seems to do better in EU.
Click to expand...

Car games aren't popular anymore in US.
 
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It doesn't help that they keep releasing them so frequently. Every year is another Forza title - it's market saturation, why get a Forza at launch when you can wait and get it cheap in a couple months...and Halo is not the system seller it once was.

GT OTOH has a big following and whilst people will say it's not as fleshed out as Forza is released with much bigger gaps and therefor there is a hunger. Also this will be the first GT on PS5.

Anyway, regarding console exclusives, I don't think there's many people left waiting for specific exclusives to jump on board - they are already on the console train. I personally think LoU2 will be the last true hardware seller this gen (by that I mean will shift big hardware numbers over the norm rather than a small bump).

Also going buy the figures above I can see why Sony mentioned 2:1 at E3, probably oversold it a little but in that ball park
 
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chris1515 said:
Car games aren't popular anymore in US.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't necessarily say that. Games like Forza, Grand Turismo, Project Cars, F1, Need for Speed and a few others, brings in millions of dollars each year, just in U.S. sales alone. Driving/racing games don't necessarily have to be the Prom King/Queen of gaming anymore. Just popular enough to be noticed and wanted to fill that space of gaming.
 
Rangers said:
The fact Farpoint is in #16, a VR only game right? Makes me wonder just how dead these charts may be...
Click to expand...

Provided the chart is on a revenue basis and not unit sales basis, Farpoint will be skewed by the fact that a large portion of its sales will be game+aim controller bundles. So could explain why it's in the top 20.
 
Eeeh. Slow sales. Summer doldrums...wonder if any xbox buyers are waiting on X1X...well I'd suspect that begins in earnest, if at all, NEXT NPD, which will be the first after E3 when the system got a name, price, and date.

Liabe Brave should do a better estimate later.

Edit: Bad news about the reliability of these estimates:

I don't think we can do this anymore.
Switch could be just 130k and that would not change the ranking, as everyone overestimate them.

How can anyone be remotely certain anymore?
This does not make sense anymore with 3 variables.
Click to expand...

And

we have several problem here, that accumulate

less people overall predict
people predict more in line with similar numbers
less reliable information given to base the results on

it hope donny and the original leaker would be okay to tell us if were at least in a 10% error margin or not
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According to a new leaker that just posted on vgchartz, those estimates are quite accurate compared to his/her numbers :

ps4: 187k
nsw: 165k
xb1: 109k

The guy has lots of others NPD numbers, including june 2017... As usual, grain of salt, etc.
 
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Globalisateur said:
According to a new leaker that just posted on vgchartz, those estimates are quite accurate compared to his/her numbers :

ps4: 187k
nsw: 165k
xb1: 109k

The guy has lots of others NPD numbers, including june 2017... As usual, grain of salt, etc.
Click to expand...

It seems no one debunk the number on GAF. It is good for PS4 and very bad for Xbox One. The XB1 2017 US number are worse than 2005 OG Xbox..

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=243875241
 
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