If backward-compatability timings were the real issue (that they DO want for US/Europe and that they NEED the extra time for it) then I can see advantages of launching in that order, but we're not seeing the other part of that equation--that they have serious support from Japanese developers for Japanese regional games to support a 2005 launch. (And if it were, say, Apple doing this that would be one thing, but Microsoft is never really able to keep any big plans supah-secret.
And the wheels for such a maneuver would already have to be well in motion.) Without the games, there's no point in launching the hardware, and WITH the games...? At that point it hardly matters where and when they launch, they just NEED the proper games for the Asian markets.
They've always been, however, leaning on their PC strengths and on American and European developers, and trying to promote the Xbox as
the platform for them, so what would such a maneuver be saying? Would they be grateful for extended development time and not being as pressured to move up a generation over Xbox 1 titles? (Would that pressure even change?
)
Would there be backwards-compatibility coming; would there be other further console redesigns to take advantage of? Would they ponder where Microsoft's priorities lay, or expect shifting support for that generation? Would they look at their respective performance in Japan and base their expectations around those figures?
One thing I feel confident about, though, is that the avid Xbox fans--those who only own an Xbox, only really play Xbox games--would be
pissed. They
like feeling as if they're the primary market--not having to wait, not getting "hand-me-down" games--and expect that of a US company. (Since they always get it the other way from the competition.) Six months is also a long period for them to champ at the bit, especially if they see that the Xbox may not have cost, technical, or IQ superiority anymore--and see those other consoles coming down the pipe quickly--and may want other things to "feel superior" about.
Plenty of feelings to be soured in that time.
Just don't see it. I think they'd be more apt to wait six months--make sure the hardware is in the exact shape they want it--make SURE the Asian market HAS the games it needs for a good impression, and go then.
MS is playing the riskier game of "look what WE can do this gen! Don't mind the shortened cycle, don't look at our performance last generation, don't look at those other consoles coming... Xbox 2 is
what it is!" which is why I'm saying they need to make the best initial impression. Launching in Japan may show they're going to be more dedicated and put more effort to the Asian markets next generation, but it could well come off as a half-baked launch to the rest of the world.