The average PlayStation 2 consumer paid a hair under $200 for his console. The Xbox, at about $188 on average, fares a bit better than the GameCube with its average price of $127. Should we be surprised that the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 have failed to live up to sales expectations, given that their prime products -- the Xbox 360 Premium and 60Gb PlayStation 3 -- retail for two to three times the average of that consumers have been paying?
And is it any surprise that the Wii, priced at just $50 over the magic $200 barrier, is selling so well? There is ample room to argue that price isn't everything -- Nintendo's own GameCube proved that point amply -- but if a system can approach the price which moved the majority of systems in the past seven years and can offer a compelling experience at the same time, then that can post record sales month after month. The history of PlayStation 2 sales and recent trends in Wii sales seem to support that argument.
...Or Not
Certainly we can use history as a guide, but there are limits to its use for prognostication. The price drops this generation may happen in ways entirely different from what has been suggested above.
Maybe the $300 console this generation will be what the $200 console was last generation. Maybe Microsoft will forge ahead with its current price structure until after Halo 3 has come and gone. Maybe Sony will bless the PlayStation 3 with a 33% price drop sometime this year. And maybe Nintendo will give the Wii a small price drop by removing Wii Sports from the package.
Those could happen, but don't bet on it.
