Microsoft Project xCloud (Game Streaming)

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by iroboto, Feb 4, 2019.

  1. Metal_Spirit

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    I undertand your point of view. But I do not share your positive view.
    Above all because I do not believe a renting service at 10 euros per month can be as profitable as the tradicional market (including digital and phisical).
    Why? Because if I can easily see a person buying 5 games a year, giving the platform owner a 5*70 euros income (850 euros year), that person will only pay 120 euros year if it is tempted by the 200 games plus of the service and the cheaper price.
    If I see this as a problem even for Microsoft, Nintendo could lose a client like that, but would not receive 120 euros. At the very best they would get 50.
    And the clients that spend the most are likely to be the most atracted. More games... lower price! The ones who spend less will keep spending less.
    Besides, as a all, a service like Gamepass would most likely decrease game sales on the Nintendo platform. It is just logical! Why would they go up? If you want a console for games, and you can get 200+ for 10 euros you will only buy a 70 euros game for your switch if you really really want the game, and not because you want something different to play.
    And with a small share of 10 euros, I do not see this as a good move.
    At the very least its a risky move.

    Regards
     
  2. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    The general argument is gamers only have so much time. With a subscription fee to MS to play a bazillion hours of content, there's less incentive to buy discrete Switch games. See streamed movies versus disc purchases - as streaming libraries increased, the interest in buying movies outright has reduced. There's a case being made that eventually, game subscription services will outstrip game purchasing, which makes sense following other entertainment industries, at which point it's whoever runs those services who wins.
     
  3. Silent_Buddha

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    Here's the thing though. MS has stated that their internal statistics for the MS exclusives on Game Pass have sold far better than their internal projections. That's for their games that release day and date on Gamepass.

    Not every publisher will want to do that. MS has also shown that putting a back catalog of games in the same IP as an upcoming game rather significantly increases pre-orders for that game. Implying that Game Pass can have a net beneficial impact on the sales of retail games. Of course, that makes sense as many people may have never tried games in a Franchise because they thought it would be something they wouldn't like. Only now, since it's just part of their subscription, why not try it? They find that they like it and then go out and buy the newest game in the series.

    Most publisher's aren't going to put releases on Game Pass day and date. MS has a reason to, other's don't. Hence they can use Game Pass to promote their upcoming game and increase sales of those games.

    OTOH - smaller developers have a hard time getting anyone to play their games regardless of how good they are until they've gotten a reputation for making good games. But how to do you get a reputation for making good games if most people aren't going to try your game outside of a big YouTube personality making VODs or a large Twitch streamer, streaming your game (which itself some think reduces the sales of those games)? For them, they've also seen Game Pass as a huge positive

    So, in short.
    • Yes, you will have some users that stop buying games and just wait until a game comes to Game Pass. Might be months or years or never for some games.
    • However, Game Pass will also increase purchases for games that use it to prime the audience for an upcoming release by releasing the past games in that franchise or past games by X developer.
    • And finally, smaller developers can get more exposure to gamers if gamers don't feel like they are taking a risk on an unknown developer. So they relish the opportunity to release games day and date on Game Pass.
    Is someone on NSW really not going to buy the latest Super Mario just because Game Pass is on the NSW? Super Smash Bros.? Zelda?

    So, basically Nintendo won't suffer any impact on game sales other than perhaps increased game sales of their 1st party titles if people buy NSW in order to play Game Pass games on the go.

    How about 3rd parties then? Well, any cross platform games are under their control as to where and when it is released. They can use Game Pass as a promotional tool for a new title or to gain more overall exposure to gamers. But they are in control of where and how it is presented. if it isn't a net positive for them, it won't appear on Game Pass, if it is, they will.

    Is someone not going to buy RDR 2 because they have Game Pass possibly. Would more people buy RDR 2 if RDR 1 was on Game Pass, probably. Replace RDR IP with any other IP.

    I can see why there's fear by some people, but overall developers seem to view Game Pass in a positive light as way to get more gamer's engaged and contrary to what many fear, as a way to increase sales of non-subscription games.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  4. Nesh

    Nesh Double Agent
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    I am really curious how MS is charging for the services. What goes to MS? How are the publishers/developers paid? What will go to Nintendo?
     
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  5. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    I think there is one point that is surely neglected about Game Pass. Although $10/mo does net you unlimited playing of any of the games during your subscription, it also nets you the ability to buy any said game & it's DLC at a reduced rate. Here are the details...

    Microsoft were surprised at their sale conversions & not just for their own titles. I suspect most are using it to try out games they are still not sure if they want to buy, but determined they do after the rental & so they buy it & then decide they don't need Game Pass anymore & cancel it. I've done that once. Continual subscription to the service is probably not normal for most users. Most probably come in for a month & leave.

    Tommy McClain
     
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  6. Metal_Spirit

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    Although I highly doubt that exclusives do sell more, I cannot deny that was indeed Microsoft’s statement. But honestly I do not understand how come one would spend 70 euros on a game you will get on the service you already pay, unless you could buy the game at a much cheaper price, and even on that case, if that’s what happened, I question myself how long that will continue to happen. People may have habbits from the tradicional market, but if that’s the case, they will loose them over time.
    So, since I do not think Microsoft are liars, although Marketing has a tendency to hide some truth, common logic tells me this may not be exactly like Microsoft is telling. I believe there is something else to this that is not beeing told.
    Remember Microsoft also said active players double when new games enter the service. And since this doesn’t mean subscriptions double (if that was the case Microsoft would be very clear on that), it must have another side to the coin: Players also become inactive on the service over time. And that is something that Microsoft doesnt speak about!
    So I ask you, besides the statement of Microsoft, do you have a logical explanation as to why that would happen, and more yet, why it would continue to happen? If you signed for Gamepass would you spend a redundant 70 euros on exclusives available on the service? (Note that Microsoft is claiming an increase on sales on exclusives, and not on a single exclusive, claiming that this is common, so they are also claiming people do this on a regular basis, and on a level that even passes the sales that happened before Gamepass, so you wouldn’t be doing this just once. I do not see any real logic in this, so I believe Microsoft is not telling us everything)

    But we are missing the real point here. Even accepting this is true, thats a Microsoft reality. So... good for Microsoft! But I do not see how Microsoft selling more exclusives would help Nintendo in any way.

    Same with third parties... Games on Switch are not the same as on PS4 and Xbox, so a promotion of a game like Shadow of Tomb Raider could incentive people to buy the game, but in that case it would incentive them to buy also a Xbox, because Switch could never do that game, and the sequel would not come to the service soon unless it was a flop (a succesfull game would have very high licensing costs).
    So how can Nintendo profit from that?
     
  7. goonergaz

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    It’s quite simple, get a free or very cheap trial and then buy the game you were going to buy anyway...just 20% cheaper. So you know, you can get game pass free with bing points.

    As ever with stats, you can manipulate to fit your argument.

    I’ll give you 2 personal stats; I have had game pass for approximately half the time I’ve had my Xbox, around 1 year in total I’d say. I’ve paid around £15 in total (may even be less!).

    What stat do you think MS will report when talking up game pass !?
     
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  8. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    play time is the most important stat for this type of thing.
    While they benefit from the most Gym Model (sign up but no one uses the equipment, all profit no service loss), gamers are likely to leave the platform a lot faster than a person cancelling their gym membership.

    Trial or not trial is not a deal breaker as much as people think it is. If people are on trial for 14 days but playing the hell out of as many hours as possible, that's the type of behaviour that will lead to repurchasing in the future.

    Reliable income comes from constant usage.
     
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  9. Metal_Spirit

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    Thanks for sharing goonerGaz... I see your point!

    This seems to just fit my point: Nintendo gains nothing from the service!
     
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  10. Silent_Buddha

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    Game Pass doesn't just lead to increased sales of Microsoft Exclusives. It was noted that after an older Fallout game was put on Game Pass, pre-orders for the latest Fallout game had increased quite significantly. And smaller independent game makers have come out to state how Game Pass has been beneficial for them.

    So, outside of exclusives, people could buy a game on any other platform. For example, if someone had a NSW and PS4. In the case of Fallout above, they could have just pre-ordered the newest Fallout on PS4 instead of buying an XBO just for the Game Pass discount on game purchases.

    If a developer decided to put a game onto Game Pass that was already on the NSW, then a person could just decide to buy the NSW version of the game instead of the XBO version of the game if they didn't have an XBO, or even if they did have an XBO.

    Or in all of those above cases, maybe a person does decide to buy an XBO. Who knows, but there are far more possibilities than X person without an XBO buys an XBO.

    And finally, it's all about additional revenue streams for Nintendo via shared Game Pass revenue or via a fixed fee for MS to have Game Pass on their device. As well a potential increase in NSW hardware sales if a person is enticed to buy a NSW who otherwise wouldn't have just to play Game Pass on the go. Which then has additional potential for NSW software sales that Nintendo may never have gotten if those people then decided to buy some games natively on the NSW.

    Nintendo obviously see's a benefit to having it on their device, otherwise it wouldn't be on there. It's just all about thinking of various scenarios where Nintendo see value in it, regardless of whether people outside of Nintendo see value in it.

    Regards,
    SB
     
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  11. cheapchips

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  12. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
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    Are we assuming that Microsoft acquiring Nintendo is outside the realm of possibility?
     
  13. Metal_Spirit

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    Not Impossible, but Nintendo would have to want to be bought by Microsoft, and I highly doubt they would.
     
  14. Metal_Spirit

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    Wait... You know something we do not know?
    As I reading this, you are giving that (gamepass on Switch) as a fact, but as far as I know it is just a rumour.
    Mike Ybarra when asked about this, posted a Twitter with the definition of rumour as something confusing and not confirmed. He added that there is also a rumour that he only plays on PC, something obviously fake.
    This seems to deny the rumour.
    So I am not aware of Nintendo recognizing any value or benefit from having Gamepass on its console. In fact I highly doubt they do.
     
  15. Silent_Buddha

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    If it appears on the NSW...then Nintendo would obviously see a benefit.

    If it doesn't then either Nintendo or MS or both don't see a benefit or the benefit doesn't outweigh the costs of making it happen.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  16. Tkumpathenurpahl

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    The Nokia technique?

    I don't see how this would be good for Nintendo. Let's even say the following: if a game is released for the Switch, it won't be available on the Switch version of GamePass/xCloud.

    Then why would a publisher bother with the cost and hassle of a Switch port, when an XBox version is also a viable purchase to a Switch owner? Aren't they incentivised to not release a Switch port, knowing that it's the cheapest way of getting their game in the hands of Switch owners?

    The Switch is the first time in a long time that Nintendo have managed to foster a viable ecosystem for third parties, and this move seems to run the risk of pissing that away. This doesn't spell that ecosystem's immediate doom, but it has the feel of a Walmart opening in a small town with extant businesses.

    Maybe, when done through the Switch, Nintendo would get the lion's share of purchases made on the XBox store? There would, presumably, be some financial incentive. But I'm skeptical of this sort of initiative coming from the company who's unofficial credo was/is "embrace, extend, extinguish."
     
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  17. Michellstar

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    @Tkumpathenurpahl First of all if Gamepass via Xcloud becomes real, for sure it´ll be a curated store y Nintendo, deciding witch games enter the service.

    About the third party ecosystem, you are watching this from a current gen POV, I mean porting games like DooM takes a toll, a lot of compromises, next year we are talking porting 10/12 Tf games to the Switch (if it´s next gen baseline), how realistic this will be??
     
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  18. seahorsesaw

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    That's because doesn't have a Stacey.
     
  19. Globalisateur

    Globalisateur Globby
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    With the rumored cheap scarlet model, the baseline could be 4-6tflops for next-gen multiplat games.
     
  20. Jay

    Jay
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    With a big uplift in CPU and fair bit of memory.
    And that would be 4-6TF at around 1080p with newer IP level.
     
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