I guess that's where we differ - I did say that the skills will be useless at the end of the machine's life-cycle. If you feel it's worth the dev's time to learn all sorts of trickery to achieve maximum performance, basically forcing them to down an exclusive path due to the additional constraints this places on a title, we really won't agree here. Good to know you do think it's worthwhile, though.
I do agree that the skills would be "useless" at the end of the console life-cycle since alot of that hardware specific coding is going to do no good on the newer console, then again there are those 3rd party devs that will prefer to once again follow that path because their skills will not be limited, assuming their programmers are skilled enough, the main additional constraints you seem to worry about seem to be that the game will be harder to port to another platform, then again what is the point of making the game? Now I am not saying that the game should be exclusive, that decision should be analyzed by the game dev but its pretty obvious that in the console world you just cannot expect game A to look and be the same in a competing console that does not share the hardware specs, because they are competitors.
I think it's fairly easy to see Xbox-developed titles as a strong introduction to Direct X for lots of console-specific developers. Specifically, the tools used for the Xbox are probably the most portable on any machine... since they can be transferred directly to the PC! On the other hand, there haven't really been too many strong PS2 -> PC ports (or simultaneous developed titles) simply because the skills aren't portable. As a business model obviously it makes more sense to go where the market works the best. As a gaming purist, you can argue till you're blue in the face that "Sony platform specific" efforts reaped good results - which they did - but I'd be surprised to see anything that wasn't able to be done easier on a competitors hardware and toolkit.
Alright, XBox to PC porting is an obvious path as reguardless of the hardware the game development tool rules were set up by a company that shares an operating system and an API tool set as its also obvious that PC is going to have to be running a Microsoft Windows OS that meets the requirements to play the ported game. Basically the agenda is obvious, just as obvious as the console being called XBox, after Direct X.
And no you cannot expect strong PS2 -> PC ports, there is an obvious programming wall there and personally I never saw the point for any major traditionaly console game devs to expect to "port" their games to the PC platform and I never really cared as it mostly seemed as a way to gain a new gaming audience to eventually go and get the console for true plug and play without having to worry about some wide spread computer virus to wreck their PC gaming platform in the worst case scenario without having to go into having to purchase more ram, a more capable graphics component, etc.
Also I don't want to add insult to injury to PC gaming, but PC gaming has not been in the best at generating profits unless that game was point and click based (historically to recent) all of the huge selling console hit games are not going to translate into a "huge selling console to PC port" it has taken a major revamping and Microsoft to initiate their "Games for Windows" program that are really intending to be used/played in a Windows Vista enviroment despite all of the problems that os is reported to have. In the end it really is hard for even a game dev to rationalize that with all of these initial problems they are going to expect people to buy these ports when piracy is so rampant killing a huge percentage of possible profits.
At the end of the day we come to this, is a 3rd party dev's choice or decision to make their game multiplatform going to hurt/limit/hinder game development and increase the alleged delays as one game is not complete or on a another platform its running at half the speed of the first.
The other problem that may not be mentioned and may even be very controversial is the "actual installed base" of these consoles, on Sony PS3, the install base is barely some 8 months old and are low in numbers of consoles sold, but lets be fair to Sony here, they only have one Holiday season under their belt and that was their hardware launch, this coming holiday season will prove if gamers are willing to step up to PS3 and thereby grant them more console sales or go to the other consoles due to the price issues.
Microsoft's XBox 360 has claimed and according to the NPD reports over 11 million consoles sold aka user install base. The reality is did those $399 consoles get actually sold or is there something not being taken into account.
I seem to remember last spring/summer while watching one of MTVs reality competition programs that for nearly every significant event the participants were being awarded Premium XBox 360s, clearly MTV's show is very much a minor number of systems but can those consoles count to the instal base?
There are other countless and numerous online/offline, tv related or print magazine related contests, giveaways that one of the prizes was again a Premium XBox 360, again this can be considered minor as well but can those consoles account to the instal base? This may be a problem with Sony as I really have seen much fewer PS3 giveaways in their case.
Finally there is the very much reported console hardware failiure of XBox 360 consoles alot of these consoles started getting media coverage way back after the launch of the XBox 360 and up until Microsoft's extension of their warranty to 3 years the install base world wide was the 11 million plus number. The question is there were many people who were able to save their receipts and exchange their systems via MS refurbished/repaired consoles but there are also a number of people we do not know about, those people who may have purchased the console, lost their receipt and instead of calling up MS, they ended up purchasing a new XBox console.
Basically a developer will really have to believe that number of instal base consoles while developing their game only to find out when the game hits retail just how many people will actually be buying their game and we will find out just how will GTA4 sell accross both consoles next year.
This is one of the many problems alot of 3rd parties are going to be facing when chossing to have their game go multiplatform, amazingly their best bet is to make games on Nintendo's Wii console given the wild fire like sales of the console, sure it does not have the specs and sure it does not have the Microsoft friendly API tools to later port "easily" to PC but then again should a 3rd party really care when that new Nintendo console is going to catch up to Microsoft's XBox 360 lead and later leave it behind in terms of consoles sales?
I was also going to talk about gaming audience and expand on what I mentioned but really if game devs don't use that as a factor and all they see is "install base" equals "sales" equals PC port then those game devs are going to be facing alot of finalcial losses in my humble opinion.