mcv - PS3 concerns ignite Xbox 2 support

[PC-Engine]

He really didn't leak them. He blatently stated it in an obscure interview (in Japanese) in 2001. An example of a "leak" is the Microsoft X2 hardware overview that's floating around the 'net. Another is the leak of the multi-tiered SKUs.

That's true but we don't know if the Xenon leaks were intentional or not. If it's intentional then it's essentially MS releasing the info themselves just like SONY's KK.

Regarding PSP, wasn't information about PSP released long before it's official debut at E3 or TGS?

BTW I don't think a new computing topology is going to make any difference if what it can do is only comparable to what Xenon can do the latter maybe even at a lower price.

 

[Vince]

That's true but we don't know if the Xenon leaks were intentional or not. If it's intentional then it's essentially MS releasing the info themselves just like SONY's KK.

And we'll pretend so your argument makes some rational sense that there isn't a difference between a comment of aiming for "1TFlop" in a Japanese magazine in 2001 and releasing the architectural overview of your console.

Regarding PSP, wasn't information about PSP released long before it's official debut at E3 or TGS?

Uh, not so sure about that.

And I can't disagree more emphatically about the latter comment. I'd consider that an ignorant view in light of what I believe is coming. It's all about value and the perks, the hype.

 

[pahcman]

Voted yes too.

IMO, after all the secrecy, hyper-hype, delay(many studios still know nothing), 2-3 years of debates/discussions/flames on these boards, if the PS3 can't offer at least 2x performance over the competition, I shall label the thing a disappointment. <-

Carbon copy of what i think. Not just big numbers though, i want realworld leap, without benefits of time delays off course.

Next gen will be very interesting. We should see the fiercest competition since SNES vs Gen, probably even hotter. Due to relative closeness and competition, finally have a gauge of different companies and their much hyped technologies. Will the old carry on doing what they do best, or will the new rise to the challenge as predicted? Where they stand, where they fall.

PSP did go through a soft announement at E3 2002 iirc. Not until much later before concrete info was release.

Remember this slide,

That along with PS2 graphics, 7.1 audio and UMD movies set the tone for PSP anticipation. Is that counted as "leak"?
Sadly now, 7.1 audio is gone and Sony is trying to neutralize Walkman of 21st Century and UMD distro bit.

 

[one]

PSP did go through a soft announement at E3 2002 iirc. Not until much later before concrete info was release.
Remember this slide,
http://upl.silentwhisper.net/uplfolders/upload6/k0101.jpg
That along with PS2 graphics, 7.1 audio and UMD movies set the tone for PSP anticipation. Is that counted as "leak"?
Sadly now, 7.1 audio is gone and Sony is trying to neutralize Walkman of 21st Century and UMD distro bit.

Eh, load of factual errors and FUD... it's E3 2003. Look at all slides, it contains all necessary info. But it doesn't contain 7.1 audio, because 7.1 audio is supposed to be the UMD audio format profile, not PSP's hardware spec.
Things changed in PSP from the original unveiling at E3 2003 are,

1. The screen size changed: 4.5" -> 4.3" (in the original slide "~4.5 inch")
2. Because of the 32MB DRAM added later, it's now 2-chip solution of a DRAM chip and a logic SoC
3. MP3 support

 

[Spidermate]

KK has leaked performance expectations, but it's just a bunch of PR BS. PS3 will be 1000 times as powerful as PS2....riiiiight. When it's toooo quiet, then there's probably something wrong ie performance isn't up to snuff with what's been known to Xenon developers. I mean if the cpu is capable of 1 TFLOPS then it wouldn't really matter what Xenon can do right so why keep it a secret when you can blow it (Xenon) away even before it launches since Xenon specs are already locked down?

The render just doesn't look right....

If you were in charge of this project, it would have sunken by now.

 

[function]

I can't remeber the number of times I've heard "it's all about the games". If you take that to be true, then a hardware vendor's primary concern is in providing the hardware, tools and information that will best allow developers to make great games, profitably.

In the absense of solid information development stalls, and people start to get nervous. With the skyrocketing development costs associated with the move to the next generation, the pub/dev community is probably looking for security more now than ever before.

Gamers go where they're led to believe the best games, or the games they'll most want to play, will be. Developers and publishers go where they think they can make the most money, or in uncertain times best guarantee the future of their company. And when it really comes down to it, pretty much no-one gives a shit about how revolutionary the hardware is or how much raw power it has, unless someone can convince them it's better at whichever of the above is relevant to them.

Of course, you could argue that it's not all about the games, and that marketing (hype) and additional features (like DVD playback) are also important in making a console a success. And maybe they are, especialy at first. But Sony taking it for granted that they'll win a crushing victory against MS (or vice versa) in the hype wars would be foolhardy, and there's still a chance that MS will put HD-DVD playback in Xenon (or indeed that HD media won't have the pull of PS2 DVD playback), so it still seems of vital importance to ensure superior developer support right from day one (and the two years leading up to it).

If this GI.biz report is representative of a trend in the Japanese developer community (and some might argue it's just be misinformed nonesense or spin) then I can't see why anyone would write it off as irrelevant. Nothing in this business can be taken for granted, and momentum is hugely important.

Compared to this time last generation (12 months before Xbox 1's launch) MS appear to be doing rather better.

 

[Qroach]

In the absense of solid information development stalls, and people start to get nervous. With the skyrocketing development costs associated with the move to the next generation, the pub/dev community is probably looking for security more now than ever before.

Well said function. Thats'e exactly how I see it.

I think vince in this thread is, well... just being himself. Not considering all the factors IMO, but I'm not going to bother arguing on something he "thinks" he knows well. All I can say is it won't be long until we see just what is happening. To be honest I was shocked at how many people I already knew working on xenon hardware. Some have even been doing it for a full year already.

 

[one]

In the absense of solid information development stalls, and people start to get nervous. With the skyrocketing development costs associated with the move to the next generation, the pub/dev community is probably looking for security more now than ever before.

Well, why do you think there's a next-gen transition to come so early?
Reading your comment, it's like all things move onto the next-gen overnight and nothing are left behind. MS may want to abandon Xbox 1 right now, but it's irrelevant to others.

PS2 is still the most profitable platform for 3rd parties unlike others.
Backward compatibility will be able to absorb pain in the transition as those with less finance can see how it's going later.

 

[Paul]

I think vince in this thread is, well... just being himself.

And looking at his track record.. this is not a bad thing.

 

[Vince]

I think vince in this thread is, well... just being himself. Not considering all the factors IMO, but I'm not going to bother arguing on something he "thinks" he knows well. All I can say is it won't be long until we see just what is happening. To be honest I was shocked at how many people I already knew working on xenon hardware. Some have even been doing it for a full year already.

Well that's just cute, I forgot that you were the one with the pulse on all that is the game industry. So that would be my fault -- that whole, from God to Quincy to the rest of us deal. We'll see who is right at the end of the day. I accept comments of "I eat crow" and/or blue-berry muffins.

 

[-tkf-]

Compared to this time last generation (12 months before Xbox 1's launch) MS appear to be doing rather better.

Well considering that they just could use a PC when developing for the XBOX i would say they were even better with the XBOX

 

[function]

Well, why do you think there's a next-gen transition to come so early?
Reading your comment, it's like all things move onto the next-gen overnight and nothing are left behind. MS may want to abandon Xbox 1 right now, but it's irrelevant to others.

I'm still trying to work out what you thought I said to think that was a response to it (and that a "rolleyes" was appropriate).

There are actual, real developers who are actively engaged in making games for Xenon and PS3 (or who would like to be, if they could), who are trying to deal with the issues raised in the MVC article - the issues I was talking about.

I'm sure they're aware that the transistion between consoles isn't instantaneous and that MS are keen to leave behind the Xbox 1 - as am I - but none of that changes the fact that they are asking questions about where their support is best placed coming into the next generation. And that *is* an issue that both MS and Sony should be very much concerned with.

PS2 is still the most profitable platform for 3rd parties unlike others.

Yes, but to coder who's actively engaged in developing a next generation product, and his boss who's looking at the budget and the rapidly approaching milestone or deadline, this will be of little comfort.

Backward compatibility will be able to absorb pain in the transition as those with less finance can see how it's going later.

That's assuming lots of early adopters will chose to spend their limited cash on brand new last-gen games rather than on titles that show off their expensive brand new system. I don't think there was any evidence at all that this happened on the PS2, so I'm wondering what you're basing this assertion on.

And no, there are plenty of small developers who can't afford to "wait it out" then start on a next generation title when it has a clear winner or when all the rumoured issues with Sony's developer support are dealt with. Just look at the develpers on this board - some of them are already committed to next gen products and have been for a long time.

But this is beside the point. Backwards compatability isn't the solution to any of the problems described in the MVC article, or any of the issues I was talking about (I'm assuming the comment was directed at me, sorry if I'm mistaken).

 

[function]

Compared to this time last generation (12 months before Xbox 1's launch) MS appear to be doing rather better.

Well considering that they just could use a PC when developing for the XBOX i would say they were even better with the XBOX

Aren't a lot of developers still using PCs for Xbox 2 development? I think someone here was using a P4 with Radeon 9800 Pro earlier this year ...

 

[Polarbear53]

I thought people were using a dual G5.

 

[Qroach]

Paul,

Track record regarding what exactly? Semi conductor predictions? Stock investment choices? Predictions in the console business? Certainly NOT the last one. Or, do you mean a track record of viciously defending his opinon, or switching an argument to be less of substance and more about semantics? Ohh just kidding Vince.


Vince,

Well that's just cute, I forgot that you were the one with the pulse on all that is the game industry. So that would be my fault -- that whole, from God to Quincy to the rest of us deal. We'll see who is right at the end of the day. I accept comments of "I eat crow" and/or blue-berry muffins.

No, never claimed to be the all knowing source of the games business. Although my opinion on it is purely based on the experience, I've had over the past 10 years. I fail to see your point of view as I think there are a number of factors at play that you, and much of the public, do not see or consider.

Yeah my saying it's going to come down to the games next gen, people won't see a visual difference between the graphics, and that I think MS will increase development support and possibly increase market share, is simply crazy talk in your opinion? I wouldn't be suprised to see you vote "no, never" simply because I think your emotions override logic on occasion. Did I forget to mention that GOD told me that too? anyway Vince, on a related note, I'd like you to answer this question...

"What is the one reason that made people want to buy the PS2 instead of any other console?"

 

[Li Mu Bai]

Are we to infer since Tecmo is complaining, that they represent the whole or even a vast majority of the development community? Rygar is the only game Tecmo did for the PS2 this whole generation iirc. They've been in MS's camp since launch. So of course they will be more forthcoming with spec. queries especially since Xenon is launching in '05. Tecmo simply may not be high on Sony's list, especially since Itakagi's disparaging remarks from way back.

 

[Qroach]

Are we to infer since Tecmo is complaining, that they represent the whole or even a vast majority of the development community?

Obviously not. please read the linked article in the first post. The article clearly comments that we already know Tecmo is connected to MS. It goes on to provide a few quotes from "other" developer sources in japan.

 

[Li Mu Bai]

Are we to infer since Tecmo is complaining, that they represent the whole or even a vast majority of the development community?

Obviously not. please read the linked article in the first post. The article clearly comments that we already know Tecmo is connected to MS. It goes on to provide a few quotes from "other" developer sources in japan.

Unconfirmed sources? Why would you even need anonymity?

 

[Vince]

Track record regarding what exactly? Semi conductor predictions? Stock investment choices? Predictions in the console business? Certainly NOT the last one.

When was I wrong concerning semiconductor predictions? Even back in 2000 I was right concerning the technology. Granted, there were some economic barriers (ergo the investment comment) that I didn't anticipate concerning 3dfx, but I hardly think you can say I wasn't correct in my knowledge and statements concerning the actual technology.

And I've been pretty on my game concerning the console buisness and PS2. What's it at... 75Million or something? Even your buddy from Tecmo stated that the XBox is a failure:

• Microsoft should be able to use its experience of the current machine's failure to succeed, even in Japan

Is that a slam or compliment... I can't make it out.

No, never claimed to be the all knowing source of the games business. Although my opinion on it is purely based on the experience, I've had over the past 10 years. I fail to see your point of view as I think there are a number of factors at play that you, and much of the public, do not see or consider.

Well, could fool some of us bud.

And, such as what exactly? By all means, explain it to us since we don't understand it.

Vince, on a related note, I'd like you to answer this question...

"What is the one reason that made people want to buy the PS2 instead of any other console?"

There isn't one factor. Your statement, IMHO, it intrinsically flawed, incomplete, to attempt a reduction of the success of the PlayStation brand to a single element or factor. The success is ultimately dependent upon many things: articulation, intelligence, desire, timing. It's truely an art... it's like romance.

Here's my thinking in a nut-shell. Microsoft is the underdog, everybody knows this. They need to court developers to their platform, just like any underdog and are currently in the process of doing this; yet as tuttle has elegently stated, they're failing thus far. XNA is an extention of this doctrine by being an attempt to lower the costs of moving a PC title to the X2, it will be a marginal sucess at best. Microsoft likely will unveil X2 at CES, it'll be deemed a sucess, they'll show off a few new titles from new developers and you'll be happy. I believe it'll be short-lived.

Sony has yet to publically show its hand, nor does it have to. It would be foolish to preempt Microsoft (ala PC-Engine's comments) if the PS3 launches in the US in 2006. Especially with PSP's introduction and any concern over saturating the marketplace. In the short-term, the lack of [public] information is creating a void that the idiots out there are filling with articles like this one (or the PS3 in 2007 rumor). But this is just transient, it'll die quickly in Sony's media blitz. When Sony unveils PlayStation3, they won't just be unveiling a more powerful console. They'll be unveiling a vision of the future, a digital home that unites Broadband, HDTV, WiFi, Games and Blue-Ray. That type of $300 vision sells, just as it did with the PlayStation2 over the Dreamcast. By the time E3-2005 ends, Sony will have become the de facto winner of the second round.

Sony isn't that dumb of an entity you know, they're current unveiling plan looks quite sound. Almost like I've seen it before:

MS         |--|----|----|--|
Sony       |----|--|----|-----

Legend:

• First Bar is today
• Second Bar is likely unveiling:
  [list:366309a2bc]
• MS: CES - 1.2005
• SNY: March - 3.2005

[*]Third Bar is E3-2005
[*]4th Bar is TGS 2005
[*]Last is possible launch[/list:u:366309a2bc]

Hey, if you think Microsoft can win against Sony head-on... more power to you. *shrug*

You keep talking about developers, but in the grand scheme of things they're just pawns (sorry guys). They can talk all they want about X2 now, before most of them know a single thing about PS3, but in 6months to a year they wont be saying the same thing; they'll be coding for PS3 because they want to get payed. Publishers control the marketplace and once Sony starts the blitz, it'll bring the consumers around, which will sway the publishers back to the current equilibrium if not farther.

Right now, we're looking at an asymmetric scenario. The Public knows more about X2 than PS3 and, obviously, they side with what they know. Give it 6 months and the question will become -- Why Xbox2?

 

[cthellis42]

Are we to infer since Tecmo is complaining, that they represent the whole or even a vast majority of the development community? Rygar is the only game Tecmo did for the PS2 this whole generation iirc.

Rygar, DoA2, Fatal Frame I & II, Monster Rancher 3 & 4, many Gallop Racers (popular in Japan), more random stuff...

And while I wouldn't discount their comments offhand, I also wouldn't give them the same credence I'd give larger, more multi-platform (and less aligned-one-way) developers of any orientation. They have more-to-gain/less-to-lose from mouthing off, while others are continually looking at the whole picture.