March Job Growth Strongest in 4 Years

[covermye]

Before I go any further with my "opinion" of the economic situation, do we have any other Harry S. Dent followers out here? Anyone?

Dent is a demographics guy who has been eerily correct in predicting not only the recession of the early 90's, but the boom of the late 90's and early 2000's as well... oh, yeah... he also saw the "bubble burst" comming when it did in the spring of 2001. All his research is based on demographics, and is almost creepy at times.

In a nutshell, Dent predicts that over the next 7 or so year, we will see mild growth as interest rates remain historically low, baby boomers are still productive, etc... However, 7-10 years from now will mark the beginning of a SUBSTANTIAL economic recession/depression that could last for as long as 25-30 years. Again, based on demographics which have been proven historically accurate to a creepy degree.

I've read most of H.S. Dent's writings and while I don't like this idea, I'm preparing for it. His logic is almost too hard to argue with.

Any comments on his reasoning if you're familiar with it?

 

[RussSchultz]

I think its possible that the baby boomers retiring will 'shrink' the economy, but it likely won't increase unemployment. Somebody has to fill the jobs, and more baby boomers are retiring than new workers being born.

 

[Sabastian]

I think its possible that the baby boomers retiring will 'shrink' the economy, but it likely won't increase unemployment. Somebody has to fill the jobs, and more baby boomers are retiring than new workers being born.

Is retirement compulsory in the US? Just wondering, in Canada it is but there is political will to change that, I think.

 

[Natoma]

Agreed with Russ and Dent, though Dent to a point. The way that unemployment numbers are calculated, I think in about 15 years we will be at a new "resting" point wrt unemployment, i.e. unemployment in the 5% range will probably be considered "bad" whereas unemployment in the 3% range will be considered ideal. These days unemployment in the 4% range is considered ideal, a % hit during the last boom.

The substantial economic recession/depression that he speaks of would be part in parcel exaggerated by all of those boomers sucking out SS and Medicare payments. Medicare prescription drug benefits alone is most likely going to quadruple in price to ~2.2 Trillion once the boomers realize they've got a $3,000 coverage gap in their prescription drug benefits. SS, if kept in its current form, will continue to grab an ever higher % of GDP in outlays unless the retirement age is gradually raised and/or benefits at the same age gradually reduced. The debt-income ratio stands at roughly 70%, and if it's not addressed in a coherant fashion, foreign investors will start pulling their funds out of the US market and invest elsewhere, or demand substantially higher interest rates, which will in turn make it more difficult for entrepreneurs, small businesses, and individuals to take out money for investment, purchases, and other economic activities which fuel our economic in large sum.

These are just some of the gloomy things that will happen if not addressed. However, thankfully, we have at least 15-20 years before they become utterly dire to our economic health. That's why we need to start now.

 

[Natoma]

I think its possible that the baby boomers retiring will 'shrink' the economy, but it likely won't increase unemployment. Somebody has to fill the jobs, and more baby boomers are retiring than new workers being born.

Is retirement compulsory in the US? Just wondering, in Canada it is but there is political will to change that, I think.

It's not compulsory here. But there are a lot of people who say "I'm 65" and stop working, living off their SS. Frankly with the improvements in health for the elderly as well as the ability to telecommute via the internet, there's no reason why someone can't work well into their golden years. But this has not really permeated the baby boomer generation imo.

Though it may have to considering many of them think SS is some retirement account when in fact it's nothing more than a supplemental. Lack of education on the matter has been a big problem in this regard imo.

 

[Sabastian]

Ahh, thanks for that Natoma.

 

[Sxotty]

How'd you hear about this? The story of the day is 'high gas prices'.

We can't have any good news about the economy until after the election.

Well it was front page news..

In any case how many times is that ahead of population growth? I know the previous job growth was behind the population growth of the country so that in actuallity we were effectively loosing jobs still. This of course matters because by the time we have those 2million jobs back that epic spoke of we will need more than 2million .. that is how it works in a growing country.

 

[epicstruggle]

Is retirement compulsory in the US? Just wondering, in Canada it is but there is political will to change that, I think.

I guess it depends on who is making you retire. The govermnent doesnt have a retirement age in general, but it does for certain proffesions. Also some companies have mandatory retirement for certain positions, usually managerial and above.

later,
epic

 

[Lezmaka]

SS, if kept in its current form, will continue to grab an ever higher % of GDP in outlays unless the retirement age is gradually raised and/or benefits at the same age gradually reduced.

I wish I could back get the thousands of dollars I've already paid, since I surely won't be seeing any of it later in life, when there's either no more money left, or retirement age is 96.

 

[epicstruggle]

SS, if kept in its current form, will continue to grab an ever higher % of GDP in outlays unless the retirement age is gradually raised and/or benefits at the same age gradually reduced.

I wish I could back get the thousands of dollars I've already paid, since I surely won't be seeing any of it later in life, when there's either no more money left, or retirement age is 96.

well, retirement wont go to 96 for a long time. 70+ is definetly possible.

Anyways, hope we can pass legislation that allows us to put our ss share into the stock market.

later,
epic

 

[AlphaWolf]

I think its possible that the baby boomers retiring will 'shrink' the economy, but it likely won't increase unemployment. Somebody has to fill the jobs, and more baby boomers are retiring than new workers being born.

Is retirement compulsory in the US? Just wondering, in Canada it is but there is political will to change that, I think.

Huh?

There are many collective bargaining agreements of which compulsory retirement is a part in Canada; however I wouldn't say that Canada has "compulsory retirement".

 

[Natoma]

SS, if kept in its current form, will continue to grab an ever higher % of GDP in outlays unless the retirement age is gradually raised and/or benefits at the same age gradually reduced.

I wish I could back get the thousands of dollars I've already paid, since I surely won't be seeing any of it later in life, when there's either no more money left, or retirement age is 96.

That's impossible considering the thousands of dollars you've paid into the system are supporting today's retirees.

 

[Vince]

I wish I could back get the thousands of dollars I've already paid, since I surely won't be seeing any of it later in life, when there's either no more money left, or retirement age is 96.

Yet another reason to privatize it. Yet another reason to vote for Bush.

• "Unless surplus payroll taxes are returned to workers through personal accounts, there is no 'lock box' which can protect them." - Jack Kemp.

PS. Sorry 'bout that Natoma

 

[Natoma]

Hey I didn't write that!