Glut of PS3 games in Q3/4?

[bobthebub]

I have seen a few articles across the web on the number of games due out on the PS3 later this year (November in particular is crazy).

Looking at this list I can see about 20 games that I would consider picking up but I am unlikely to be able to afford more than 3 or 4, this is great for me and many other gamers, I will pick up some AAA titles immediately and a few more when things go quiet again but given the relatively poor state of PS3 sales to date will this result in a massacre for the publishers or do you think that holiday PS3 sales will be sufficient to pull things back from the brink?

 

[Rainbow Man]

Perhaps some of these games will be intentionally delayed to avoid this congestion?

It's no t easy to make such a decision though I suppose since it seems so much of the year's sales are made around christmas and the months running up to it.

Maybe publishers decide to simply go for broke and try to cannibalize all the sales they can from their competitors to avoid the dearth that hits after the holiday season.. *shrug*

Perhaps PS3 sales will pick themselves up remarkablty as if by magic.

Hmm actually now that I think about it.. Probably not.
Sales of some big profile titles will most likely suffer due to the relatively small install base of the console.. I haven't made any studies but it seems to me that once the pomp and fanfare of the launch of a major title is over people tend to avoid buying it even if it's a good game since it's now "old".

Or am I mistaken here?
Peace.

 

[RollingBalls]

Hmm actually now that I think about it.. Probably not.
Sales of some big profile titles will most likely suffer due to the relatively small install base of the console.. I haven't made any studies but it seems to me that once the pomp and fanfare of the launch of a major title is over people tend to avoid buying it even if it's a good game since it's now "old".

Or am I mistaken here?
Peace.

I've never heard of anyone not buying a good game because it's old.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I've never heard of anyone not buying a good game because it's old.

Then you havent been listening properly. Hype and marketing drives the sales of most titles, and thats only there during the months around when your game launches.

 

[ninzel]

Do we have accurate data to back that up? For example when did a game like Halo sell the most copies,in the first 3 months after it's release or the proceeding years after the Xbox hit a price point like $199.99?

 

[Arwin]

I noticed Ratatouille PS3 in the rack this weekend, so apparently it's out already in Europe (says much later in the list above). They probably tried to get it out in time for the movie's release over here (which has just happened). I have seen some Dutch reviews, and they say it's pretty decent for a movie tie-in. A bit short, and the graphics aren't too great, but for a movie tie-in above average (which isn't saying much).

That amounted to a 7/10.

 

[bobthebub]

I am sure someone will come up with accurate data, but I would reckon that most games make the majority of thier sales during the initial 2 months, there are some games that build on word of mouth and become long tail but it will be a small proportion, halo is a poor comparison point anyway it was constantly hyped, bundled best sellered. Not many games will have the benefit of that.

 

[ERP]

There ar eusually two sorts of games, those that do their majority of sales in the first 2 months or so, and those that "have legs".

The latter are usually High profile titles considered must haves by the hard core gamers, Halo, GTA, GT all fall into that category. Word of mouth from the hardcore gamers means that those who pick up the platform later tend to pick up these games too.

There are also weird outliers, the Sims titles actually started off with relatively (compared to units sold) slow sales, but obviously moved some usnits over it's lifetime. The arguments I've heard here are that casual audiences don't care about release dates.

As for product gluts Sega used to be somewhat notorious for this in the Genesis days, they'd release several AAA titles between thanksgiving and Xmas and in variably some of the would fail. Dynamite Heady comes to mind, it was a great game for it's time, but it didn't sell largely because of competition from other Sega products when it was released.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Do we have accurate data to back that up? For example when did a game like Halo sell the most copies,in the first 3 months after it's release or the proceeding years after the Xbox hit a price point like $199.99?

Yes, allmost all games sell 85+% of their total sales during the first 3 months (unless the game is a launch title, then it can, if good sell a lot more afterwards because of the lack of good games and userbase constinously growing), dont have a link on me right now thought.

Halo 1 was a launch title yes? Lets talk about Halo 2 instead, Halo 2 sold 2.4 million copies in the 24hours. After 3 months it passed 5 million, i dont know how much it has sold in total, but vgcharts list is as 8million or so. And remember that this is an exceptionally good game (in terms of reviews), the bad games dont retain allmost any sales after the third month.

 

[Asher]

Perhaps some of these games will be intentionally delayed to avoid this congestion?

I doubt it. Viewing the list, with the exception of a few games, most of the interesting games on the list are also coming to the Xbox 360 in the same timeframe. And delaying the games to avoid the holiday season isn't very bright.

 

[BadTB25]

Triple A titles I tend to pick up right away, the average to good games I tend to wait for the inevitable price drop or when they hit the used bin.

I know I will be picking Ninety Nine Nights when I return to the states next month and maybe even Enchanted arms.

Most of my fellow gamers tend to do the same, so I guess that the 85% sales in the 1st 2 months is true for most high profile titles.

For the niche and average games, I'd say they sale best when they hit a price drop. Viva Pinata maybe?

 

[djskribbles]

Triple A titles I tend to pick up right away, the average to good games I tend to wait for the inevitable price drop or when they hit the used bin.

wow, considering "AAA" means 9+ scores from review sites, those are pretty high standards and you're letting reviewers decide which games you pick up right away? a lot of my favorite games of all time got 8's from review sites.

 

[betan]

I have seen a few articles across the web on the number of games due out on the PS3 later this year (November in particular is crazy).

Looking at this list I can see about 20 games that I would consider picking up but I am unlikely to be able to afford more than 3 or 4, this is great for me and many other gamers, I will pick up some AAA titles immediately and a few more when things go quiet again but given the relatively poor state of PS3 sales to date will this result in a massacre for the publishers or do you think that holiday PS3 sales will be sufficient to pull things back from the brink?

I don't consider this as a big issue at all. Almost all of the third party titles are multiplatform. Even if PS3 user base stays around 1/3 of 360 around that time, it still means relatively easy money for the publishers.
It may be a problem for exclusive titles, which are mostly Sony published, and Sony overall will benefit from the bigger library in the long run.

 

[Npl]

October 02, 2007 - NBA '08 ~ Sony Computer Entertainment
October 02, 2007 - NBA 2K8 ~ 2K Sports
October 02, 2007 - NBA Live 08 ~ Electronic Arts

Must be a great day for basketball fans

I see only 5 titles that I would defintly buy, should I get a PS3 this year and 2-3 maybes.

 

[ninzel]

Considering Sony is not doing the best right now and is digging itself out of a bit of a hole,this glut of games could be just what the platform needs for the long term success even though it might hurt some lesser games in the short term.

 

[bobthebub]

this glut of games could just what the platform needs for the long term success even though it might hurt some lesser games in the short term.

PS3 absolutely needs these games, no question, I would just be worried that too many publishers take big hits and cancel follow up games.

That said, if they can squeeze in another price cut - especially in the EU, deliver with Home & LBP & squeeze a few top rank ratings out of these games then the platform may start to look a lot stronger this Christmas.

 

[22psi]

PS3's strongest game for this year just got delayed until next year. 2008 is PS3's year imo.

 

[bobthebub]

PS3's strongest game for this year just got delayed until next year. 2008 is PS3's year imo.

No Way, you cannot be serious! - No Hot Shot's 5 till '08?

 

[Akumajou]

Perhaps some of these games will be intentionally delayed to avoid this congestion?

It's no t easy to make such a decision though I suppose since it seems so much of the year's sales are made around christmas and the months running up to it.

Maybe publishers decide to simply go for broke and try to cannibalize all the sales they can from their competitors to avoid the dearth that hits after the holiday season.. *shrug*

Perhaps PS3 sales will pick themselves up remarkablty as if by magic.

Hmm actually now that I think about it.. Probably not.
Sales of some big profile titles will most likely suffer due to the relatively small install base of the console.. I haven't made any studies but it seems to me that once the pomp and fanfare of the launch of a major title is over people tend to avoid buying it even if it's a good game since it's now "old".

Or am I mistaken here?
Peace.

You may be mistaken by not taking into account the number of PS3 consoles that WILL be sold this, its second holiday season.

Alot of the Sony PS3 naysayers have been complaining about the price of the console and the lack of games (as if any new console under a year old would have a huge library of new games) and this second holiday season basically answers why people should spend or invest their money into the PS3.

Alot of these titles, although they may have some hype either marketing or fan generated are very new games, I mean alot of people will either give these games a chance or they will wait and see.

As for the current Install base you need to keep in mind that this is the hardcore PS3 gamer or Sony fans and their choices for game purchases will increase enough to quell complaints as much as any holiday season can provide, no different than previous PS2 holiday seasons sans for MGS and GTA games.

No gamer is the same so some will only go for the game they like while others go for sports, etc

The "dearth that hits after the holiday season" will already be covered by MGS4 and GTA4, two very big PS3 games that at least for the hardcore gamer are assured to be purchased and may even increase console sales from gamer word of mouth or some gamers who still argued that they had no reason to purchase the console.

There is also the TGS07 in October and the titles that may be chosen for localization in the US.

Also reguardless of price, the X360 was somehow able to generate more sales during last holiday season despite the bad media press it received at launch with faulty consoles as people seemed to be desperate for purchasing a console during the holiday season.

Sony's bad media press, those supposed shootings due to lack of consoles and people hoarding consoles for Ebay are no longer an issue this holiday season so its up to the holiday consumer to go and buy the console that they spend/invest their money on.

 

[quest55720]

You may be mistaken by not taking into account the number of PS3 consoles that WILL be sold this, its second holiday season.

Alot of the Sony PS3 naysayers have been complaining about the price of the console and the lack of games (as if any new console under a year old would have a huge library of new games) and this second holiday season basically answers why people should spend or invest their money into the PS3.

Alot of these titles, although they may have some hype either marketing or fan generated are very new games, I mean alot of people will either give these games a chance or they will wait and see.

As for the current Install base you need to keep in mind that this is the hardcore PS3 gamer or Sony fans and their choices for game purchases will increase enough to quell complaints as much as any holiday season can provide, no different than previous PS2 holiday seasons sans for MGS and GTA games.

No gamer is the same so some will only go for the game they like while others go for sports, etc

The "dearth that hits after the holiday season" will already be covered by MGS4 and GTA4, two very big PS3 games that at least for the hardcore gamer are assured to be purchased and may even increase console sales from gamer word of mouth or some gamers who still argued that they had no reason to purchase the console.

There is also the TGS07 in October and the titles that may be chosen for localization in the US.

Also reguardless of price, the X360 was somehow able to generate more sales during last holiday season despite the bad media press it received at launch with faulty consoles as people seemed to be desperate for purchasing a console during the holiday season.

Sony's bad media press, those supposed shootings due to lack of consoles and people hoarding consoles for Ebay are no longer an issue this holiday season so its up to the holiday consumer to go and buy the console that they spend/invest their money on.

Lets not forget last holiday season the 360 was the only next gen console you could walk into a store and buy. The PS3 was sold out till january and the Wii is still sold out in NA. The 360 also had the hottest game of the season in gears of war with a brilliant marketing campain.

If things stand put the PS3 will be facing a 150 dollar cheaper HD console with a better game line up in the 360 and the Wii which is kicking everyones butt.

The smart publishers/devs don't need to worry as they will have their games out for the 360 also. The rest oh well they deserve what they get they have known for a year how this was playing out plenty of time to make a 360 version.