First political party casualties from the war on terror?

E

epicstruggle

Passenger on Serenity
Veteran
Looks like the terrorist attack by AQ(most likely suspect today), have caused the PP party to loose against the SP party. Up until the train bombings the PP were leading polls (narrowly). It now looks like the SP party have won by about 5 points. Im quite suprised that the elections were allowed to happen without a small break (maybe a month), anyways I wonder if this will cause Spain to change their stance in Iraq.

Is this a good thing, that a terror group can affect an election??

later,
epic
 
It wasn't necessarily the bombings themselves that sealed it for the PP, it was the way in which they brought out their "Jump To Conclusions Mats" right after the bombing, (emulated by plenty of people on this board). The PP tried to use the bombings for political gain by blaming it on ETA. When that turned out to be bunk, the voters turned out in droves.
 
Clashman said:
It wasn't necessarily the bombings themselves that sealed it for the PP, it was the way in which they brought out their "Jump To Conclusions Mats" right after the bombing, (emulated by plenty of people on this board). The PP tried to use the bombings for political gain by blaming it on ETA. When that turned out to be bunk, the voters turned out in droves.
Click to expand...
There was strong evidence (initally) that eta might have been responsible. They were caught trying to bring in over 1000 lbs (correct amount?) of explosives. Seems like a good road to investigate.

later,
epic
 
I really hope it doesn't turn out the attacks significantly affected the outcome of the election, cause if it did, it sends a clear signal to terrorists that attacks really makes a difference, that violence can win over democracy.
 
Humus said:
I really hope it doesn't turn out the attacks significantly affected the outcome of the election, cause if it did, it sends a clear signal to terrorists that attacks really makes a difference, that violence can win over democracy.
Click to expand...

Violence usually does win over democracy.
Since when had that been new in the history of the world?
 
Doesn't matter whether the votes were really swayed, the terrorists will interpret this as swaying the election. Hence, a new tool for terrorists to alter policy has emerged: rather than a long terrorist campaign of attrition and negotiation, stage *massive carnage* on the eve of elections to effect policy change. If the socialists pussy out and pull troops out of Iraq, it will only reinforce the utility of mass carnage.

Can a mega attack be in store for us in November? The terrorists miscalculate if they think it will change US policy. Another mega-US attack will simply force Kerry to bomb and detain more Muslims. Popular opinion is different here. Still, Spain should be careful to appease the terrorists if they think this will remove them as targets.
 
Hence, a new tool for terrorists to alter policy has emerged...
Click to expand...

Actually, no. The Red Brigades and Baider-Meinhof did the same didn't they? To be honest, I was wondering when this would happen. In general, violence on the eve of an election isn't new. Ask anyone from Guatemala, like my sister's friend (more specifically, her mother).

As for it's effect, the new Spanish government has promised to remove it's 1,300 troops in Iraq when their rotation is up in July.
 
Willmeister said:
As for it's effect, the new Spanish government has promised to remove it's 1,300 troops in Iraq when their rotation is up in July.
Click to expand...
Well, more correctly they promised they would prior to being elected. Whether or not the speech today to "combat terrorism in all its ways" will backtrack on the promise or not is yet to be seen.
 
Its obviously a moral dilemma for the socialist party. Either you stick to what you said pre attack, and be seen as soft on terrorism, or you do the opposite and reverse stance and piss off the majority of your electorate.

Either way, the fact that an election has just been altered by terrorism is very scary to me. That we have potentially lost an ally is also disheartening.
 
Fred said:
Either way, the fact that an election has just been altered by terrorism is very scary to me. That we have potentially lost an ally is also disheartening.
Click to expand...

But a subway blast in Moscow several days prior to the election has actually bolstered Putin and his uncompromising stance. I am not convinced that terrorism is an effective political tool.
 
Geeforcer said:
I wonder how many people in Spain share War in Iraq = War on Terror view.
Click to expand...
<10%. At least that was the number of people who supported the views of the USA, UK, and Spain pre-war. I doubt that it got any bigger since the war ended.

later,
epic
 
epicstruggle said:
Geeforcer said:
I wonder how many people in Spain share War in Iraq = War on Terror view.
Click to expand...
<10%. At least that was the number of people who supported the views of the USA, UK, and Spain pre-war. I doubt that it got any bigger since the war ended.

later,
epic
Click to expand...

If so, there would probably be little political consequence domestically if Spain was to stop sending troops to Iraq.
 
Geeforcer said:
If so, there would probably be little political consequence domestically if Spain was to stop sending troops to Iraq.
Click to expand...
I guess domestically it wouldnt really, but maybe this will cause other terrorist groups in spain to see that the will of the people can be affected by explosions/bombing near an election date.

Internationally this has major implications, Japan, Poland and especially the UK, should seriously re-evaluate how strong their commitment to fighting in iraq == fighting war on terror, and also with the US. They are very logical next targets, by AQ.

later,
epic
 
epicstruggle said:
Geeforcer said:
If so, there would probably be little political consequence domestically if Spain was to stop sending troops to Iraq.
Click to expand...
I guess domestically it wouldnt really, but maybe this will cause other terrorist groups in spain to see that the will of the people can be affected by explosions/bombing near an election date.
Click to expand...

maybe it will cause the government in Spain to see that they should respect the will of the people. i know i am asking a lot there for a supposably democratic goverment, but it would be cool.
 
kyleb said:
maybe it will cause the government in Spain to see that they should respect the will of the people. i know i am asking a lot there for a supposably democratic goverment, but it would be cool.
Click to expand...
Whats the point of having smart people to be our leaders? Just have a nationwide poll for every decision, that will give you the will of the people everytime. The problem with that is the fact that the people are stupid. ;) Better to have leaders who take the unpopular (but correct) decision from time to time.

later,
epic
 
That is a beauty/volatility of democracies... one thing this bombing made is made more voters come out and those were actually voting for a change.

I think they are normally complacent voters who don't really care- with "they are all the same" ideas, were actaully moved to go in and give their vote to the change. I don't think that many "normally" conservative voters were suddenly moved to vote socialist - unless they decided that before teh bombings anyway - it is the higher turnout that changed the situation.
 
epicstruggle said:
kyleb said:
maybe it will cause the government in Spain to see that they should respect the will of the people. i know i am asking a lot there for a supposably democratic goverment, but it would be cool.
Click to expand...
Whats the point of having smart people to be our leaders? Just have a nationwide poll for every decision, that will give you the will of the people everytime. The problem with that is the fact that the people are stupid. ;) Better to have leaders who take the unpopular (but correct) decision from time to time.

later,
epic
Click to expand...

And than welcome comerade Bush - you the smartest of all americans - protect us from danger and lead us into prosperity ;)
 
epicstruggle said:
Internationally this has major implications, Japan, Poland and especially the UK, should seriously re-evaluate how strong their commitment to fighting in iraq == fighting war on terror, and also with the US. They are very logical next targets, by AQ.
Click to expand...

The government here is having popularity issues regardless of the Iraq war; there's a whole load of other stuff they're doing that's getting right up peoples noses. Or rather it's the way they're going about it that's irritating folks. This is compounded by the Tory party having elected a semi-credible leader.

As you say it's highly likely we're next on the list; how an AQ attack would go down here I'm not sure, but I'm guessing Blair would get the blame. Regardless of whether AQ attack the UK or not, Blair is going to have to work some magic if he's to be PM after the next election.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top