impossible to know
Not really. HD DVD had Universal and Paramount both backing them Exclusively. Those two studios put out the biggest block busters, and publish a large amount of TV shows.
If you take PS3 out of the equation, HD DVD had a massive headstart for a year, that Blu-Ray would not have eliminted were it not for the PS3's sales. You also have to consider the massive price difference. When HD DVD was hitting $300, Blu-Ray players were still retailing for north of $500.
I'd also like to mention the extremely poor quality transfers that plagued Blu-Ray films for nearly 6 months.
I don't think it's so far fetched to assume that Blu-Ray would have been another Beta Max were it not for the PS3.