So you're saying to catch it now and catch it later when everyone else is catching it?
Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]
- Thread starter RDGoodla
- Start date
So you're saying to catch it now and catch it later when everyone else is catching it?
Apparently blood based vaccines take a very long time to make. According to contagion.
Once you've caught it, you shouldn't be able to catch it again.All vaccines take years to make. There's an initiative (Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation) spurred on from MERS and SARS to find a faster way to create vaccines at break-neck speeds using different strategies (including molecular clamps) that hopes to have a human viable vaccine in 12 to 18 months.
You can relapse, effectively having it twice. But they dont have solid info on exact behaviors of the virus or antibodies, so its still too early to know for sure.
Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, said a protective antibody is generated in those who are infected.
"However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long," Li said. "For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...00-deaths-can-you-get-virus-again/4804905002/
"However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long," Li said. "For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...00-deaths-can-you-get-virus-again/4804905002/
Yes I agree the attention you would get now would be better, higher doctor -> patient ration, but later on they will prolly have better ideas on how to treat patients (eg I think they have now learnt dont stick everyone inside a cuiseliner
)In Iran, 43 infected -> 12 deaths there, also ppl from iran have now caused cases in 5 other countries
suggests theres prolly many hundreds if not 1000s of cases in Iran
IIRC listening to Sceptics guide to the universe podcase a couple of weeks ago, they were talking about the flu (not convid) I think they said the latest idea of why flu happens more in winter than summer is due to higher humidity in summer (bugs last longer in drier conditions), so perhaps if you feel threatened turn down the aircon? I should be good here in barcelona since its always humid, still I'ld prefer not to have this humidity
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
Except there aren't any large outbreaks outside of Wuhan.
Less than a 1000 people have it in South Korea. A country with over 50 million people. Not even 300 have it in Italy, a country with over 60 million people. Percentage wise it's nothing. You have a lot bigger chance getting killed in a car accident than getting Corona, never mind dying from it.
Sure, don't put yourself in harm's way but apart from maybe Wuhan there isn't really any good reason not to go somewhere IMO. If it would spread that easily than all the major cities would be on lockdown. Instead people still cram together on public transport every day.
I'm not sure about comparing it to car accident death though. Italy has something like ~10 traffic death per day on average. South Korea is a bit higher, but not by much. If you compare the number of new cases per day, it actually grows much quicker (in both South Korea and Italy, the number of cases are way higher than 10 per day for last few days).
those are only confirmed numbers. Meaning they were sick enough in a way that their health care provider decided to issue the COVID test.
there could be many carriers with mild symptoms walking about thinking nothing is wrong.
Yes strange comparison, lets compare something with an exponential growth with something relatively stable.
Come back tomorrow and see if this is still true
Though if so, the threat of Covid19 is much diminished.
D
Deleted member 13524
Guest
Well it's probably not better for me now, since I just got rid of a nasty Influenza A this weekend, which left my lungs looking like crap (according to the doctors who saw my x-ray).
Besides, I'm not sure I want to be responsible for bringing the disease to my 5 year-old and my 6 month-old, both of which would then be carrying the thing to the other children/babies in daycare.
It’s the unfortunate issue with reporting. You need to look at suspected cases and that’s not a verified number unfortunately.
If people are dying before they reach the hospital, we can’t call it COVID; without an autopsy we don’t know what they died from. Could have been the flu; TB; any sort of respiratory infection.
I would say the threat is being well considered. The actions being taken in the EU to limit the spread is fairly prompt.
But yes; I would worry in places that cannot contain. In particular I do worry about India. They just do not have the military to contain as many people as they have
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
If there are many carriers with mild symptoms couldn't that mean it's really not that bad? Over half a million people a year die of the common flu. Most people don't give getting the flu any more thought than feeling like crap for a couple of days.
Even if Corona would end up being a couple of times worse, it's still not that much in the grand scheme of things. Even if millions would die every year, that still isn't worse than for example cancer.
That might be the wrong way to look at it.
ill address the flu before we go back to COVID. The flu is actually 4 separate strains with millions of permutations. We group them together but the reality is we don’t know which strain you are going to be infected with. Some strains are much deadlier than others. We develop a flu vaccine/shot each year to protect individuals against the ones that are most likely to cause death. In particular major killers like H1N1 is being passed around every year since 2009. And if you’ve never gotten the flu shot since 2010; your risk of deaths is very high if you catch H1N1 or h2n2. (1-3%)
So the threat isn’t diminished to your life; it’s that the population is now adequately protected enough to not have a pandemic.
as for the fear of a pandemic; the biggest fear is not death. Fatality rates are still somewhat low day 1-3%. The concern is the hospitalization rate; or the fact that for a majority of people who are infected they are incapacitated for the duration of the infection.
yes there are some people that it can be mild with. But you won’t know where you stand until you’re infected.
we also have hospitals that’s are supporting these people and because of the support The survivability rate goes up and thus fatality rate down.
But like our organs, when one organ fails the rest of the organs must pick up the slack and eventually you get a full system crash. So if people are getting sick and incapacitated but not dying and it goes unchecked; the world becomes sick and we get this major problem or just running our regular services that we depend on for survival.
Machine Learning?
All vaccines take years to make. There's an initiative (Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation) spurred on from MERS and SARS to find a faster way to create vaccines at break-neck speeds using different strategies (including molecular clamps) that hopes to have a human viable vaccine in 12 to 18 months.
The hospitalisation rate is a big concern, and for that reason the fatality may end up *higher* because there aren't enough beds to provide the care that people need to get through the worst of it.
Most strains of flu don't have a 1+% fatality rate. The current flu plans expect somewhere closer to 0.1% fatality rate from flu. Covid-19 is currently around 1%, so about 10x worse than flu. If you've got pre-existing conditions, the rate is much higher (for example, some figures show 7% of diabetics infected by covid-19 have died). That isn't something to be dismissed.
yea, it's a pretty good use case for this type of thing.Machine Learning?
You just need to make sure you have the right features in there for accurate prediction.
80% of those infected don’t need hospitalization. Doesn’t mean the threat is diminished. Very sick people tend to stay home. People with mild symptoms have a habit of keeping up their daily routines potentially exposing those around them.
Iroboto was talking about more cases presently out there than reported. If so, it means 1) there are (far) more people infected than currently mentioned. 2) Their symptoms are so mild as to not make anything of it. 3) The current death rate calculated from known cases would actually be lower if we included the cases currently unrecorded. Theoretically, let's argue that half the population infected by Covid19 have a very mild reaction such that they aren't even aware it's Covid19; then the death rate reduces to 1% instead of 2%.
Given 'healthy' people aren't screened for infections, we can't tell real danger of infection. For the really deadly diseases that are tracked like SARS, all the known cases are tracked because it's pretty obvious whether you have it or not.
How can ML help with creating vaccines?
The last time we had a novel influenza outbreak (2009) it infected an estimated 10-20% of the global population.
It didn’t have abnormally high fatality rate and that’s because the elderly (who tend to be the group with the highest mortality rate) had been likely exposed to a similar strain in years past. But children and working adults had a 4-8X higher chance of hospitalization and death due to novel strain.