Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

No offense, but those lenghty explanations and extrapolations are just opinions like everybody else's, since nobody really knows what's going to happen, and the reason I didn't reply to you or others was simply because I decided to wait and see what happens out there (and also because my english sucks, I'm not very eloquent in english so it's hard to keep replying to many people simultaneously in a short time).

So I briefly mentioned mass starvation due to lockdowns since it's something that, IMO, is likely to kill more people than coronavirus itself. My first post about starvation had nothing improper about it, but one snarky one-line reply to my post mentioned that I certainly wasn't "talking about earth", so I decided to write a second post about it, with many links, to show that it was not only "about earth" but also about developed countries as well. I added some commentary shortly later and there was nothing improper there either, but the post was deleted. The reason I was given for the deletion was that I had failed to reply to other people, which seems like a ludicrous reason since it has nothing to do with the deleted post , and also because the same thing has happened many times in the past to me and others (who post once or twice then disappear) but nothing happened then.

I won't address the "agenda" part since there is none, and the same could be said about others around here, so I prefer not to go in there.
Having said that, feel free to continue the discussion about coronavirus.

 

But we have to try to predict in order to make life-altering choices for the entire population of the world. So by using logic and reason and data, we should be able to work out probable outcomes on which to base our decisions, rather than just flicking a coin and hoping that's the correct choice. In this case, we have lots of data on other epidemics and pandemics. It's not a complete unknown. You seem to suggest that not millions of people will be infected. That idea has to come from somewhere. If it's just a feeling, has that feeling changed with the extrapolation of the exponential growth? Do you now think, "oh, okay. Yes, that will be a lot of people very quickly," or do you think, "no, I don't think it'll ever reach that many"? And if that latter, what's the reasoning?

It doesn't really matter if you're right or wrong so long as there's a clear, understandable thought process. Like the German situation. Some think it's just a stats thing. Other are questioning if there's a different strain, or different treatment. All the ideas being presented are generally sound. BRiT linked to a strong case for everyone to wear masks which I've shared. Zed then pointed to an abrupt fault in that example of the Czech Republic with the last day having a massive spike in cases. Maybe the mask thing doesn't help after all? The main point is that every idea is presented and considered properly. There are plenty of people out there still thinking it's nothing worse than a bad case of the flu. If they are fundamentally wrong, and the data I think points unequivocally that they are, then they need to be corrected in their views. It's not enough to tolerate differing opinions in this subject when they can proven wrong if only people would listen to reason. So yeah, we're gonna debate hard! You're here championing the "it isn't as bad as that" side of the debate. You'll have to make a strong case for your side, so you should engage and debate hard if you want to make that point (or concede you were mistaken ).

 

this puts the death rate at 5% not the 1.5-2% thats been touted. this has a higher morality rate than the spanish flu. not to mention our tech is better than 100years ago. this is a disaster.

 

That's not correct. Those numbers correspond to the percentage of dead people over the number of confirmed/tested positive. We all know the amount of infected people is way higher than the official numbers.

BTW, in Spain they found out that many tests were defective and didn't detect positives.

 

Fucking Florida...

Two poll workers who spent Florida’s primary day in precincts in the city of Hollywood have tested positive for coronavirus, the Broward Supervisor of Elections said Thursday.​

Two poll workers who spent Florida’s primary day [2020-03-17] at precincts in the city of Hollywood have tested positive for coronavirus, the Broward County Supervisor of Elections said Thursday.

According to a spokesman for Supervisor Pete Antonacci, the office learned over the last 24 hours that two workers have tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The workers, who have not been identified, worked March 17 at precincts at the Martin Luther King Community Center and the David Park Community Center, both in the city of Hollywood.
​

 

This shows the location data of phones that were on a Florida beach during Spring Break. It then shows where those phones traveled. First thing you should note is the importance of social distancing. The second is how much data your phone gives off. [Play Twitter Video]​

 

In terms of modelling, this calculator gives access to its underlying differential equations, and thus lets you play with the model, and you can muck about with the parameters of the decent model they have constructed to your hearts content.
AND visualise the outcome in real-time.
Reality is more complex of course, but from what I've seen of government communication, modelling at this level is used a lot as an approximation. Exponential growth, even logistically limited (the Petri dish/titration curve S-shape function) is much too coarse.

 

I dont believe that for a second, theres no way 5000 phones went to all those places in that short of time.
I can believe though that 5000 phones/ppl meet other phones/ppl who then met other ppl/phones etc i.e rapidly becoming millions of ppl/phones that went to these places​

 

I was right, just read a Dutch news article explaining the difference with Germany and its 160.000 tests a week testing anyone suspected. This also explains the lower average age. In addition, the country is just at the beginning of the outbreak - deaths from the disease tend to lag about 3 weeks behind infections. And the German health institute also mentioned that initially the virus was spread mostly among young people, so that also kept deaths low vs infections.

 

Is this information verified to be truly available like this? Because that would be news in and of itself and would greatly help governments determining where too many people gather in close proximity for no good reason.

 

Its what they done in south korea to track users, there were scandals about catching ppl having affairs a few weeks ago on the news
here in spain they have enacted phone tracking as well.
Also like I mentioned a couple of days ago, 'google fit' now doesnt work, I assume so ppl dont go crazy if they dont walk 10,000 steps a day or something (guess on my part)

 

The timeline is one month. Why do you find it hard to believe? I've heard Fort Lauderdale is pretty popular destination for springbreakers.

 

Also during that time the Spring Breakers went from the beach back to college and then from college back to their homes since all colleges were closed to have classes completed online.

 

Prepare to lose your loved Prime Minister.

 

The guy's a dick but wishing death on somebody is a bit strong.

 

Actually my wish is that he survives and continues his mission to destroy the uk, as per the previous wish of his compatriots.
Oh you are from uk too!
You have done good things too. Doctor who, horrible histories, top gear, tomb rider.
I'll miss those.

 

Prince Charles also has it, I think the royal family has known for a while

 

Mate look at the image, there is no way that only 5600 phones went to all those places

so after leaving springbreak some of these 5600 american kids went and extensively traveled in siberia, every country in africa, china (including Hubei, I thought it was in lockdown, not for at least one of these american kids who travelled all over Hubei) all over saudi arabia, greenland, north korea, etc (basically every country in the world)
not to mention theres signals in
French Southern and Antarctic Lands (population 100 scientists)
South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands // population 30. I guess one of these 5600 kids decided to volunteer there
They traveled every inch of india, yet failed to do the same in the USA

these are the most widely travelled 5600 ppl ever in a month

Mate its just not credible

 

How about watch the video first zed?