Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

That is exactly it. Germany is testing way more than most countries, and they got infected a little later too due to different holidays etc. Their death rates will be rising a lot of the next days I expect.

They do have way more capacity, five times what we have - they are now actually taking in Italian patients.

We will max out our capacity in a matter of days if we don’t succeed in expanding. But we’re hard at work at raising capacity to 2500 ICUs where we had less than half that initially (we just actually cut a bunch). I also heard there are successful tests with splitting the tubes for respirators to treat two patients with one machine, should we run out.

Also Philips is ramping up production but there is an old law from the 50s that allows trump to confiscate all of them for national use which we all expect him to do. Dyson is also switching to produce respirators and various car companies are producing masks etc.

Interesting times ... the entire world is fighting a common enemy, like an alien invasion except it’s an earthly invader.

Meanwhile China’s policy has successfully stopped the virus and now they will need to focus on keeping out the virus from coming back in from Europe and the US etc.
 
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It’s not about cases for Germany and Japan. It’s about deaths. They are super low. Japan has very low cases for the preventive measures they have in place.

if we assume you didn’t test at all, your positive case hit would be non existent but that wouldn’t stop a flood of critical people slamming the hospital. That’s why death rate is extremely important. We can use it to get an idea of active cases working backwards.

The death rate should be anywhere between 1-3% Outside of those bounds should
Be anomalous. And it’s worth looking at. Either the percentages need to change or they are kicking ass.

If the US really is suffering from a surge of potential active cases that are hidden but the hospitals aren’t loaded; then it’s likely not that bad (yet) even without testing (14 day lag time).

the goal of the tests is to reduce spread before you get hammered 14 days later. it’s basically an advanced heads up that shit is bad. At best consider tests a forecasting tool. You can take and make decisions earlier than wait for your hospitals to be completely overcrowded.

If you have a really high active case rate but really low death rate. In theory if you are catching them all early at that point in time you are waiting on stats for people to start dying from it. It just takes weeks for it to happen. But if they really manage to keep it that level and everyone recovers: people need to copy what they did.
 
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Shifty Geezer said:
All three.
Not at all. I don't do scaremongering; I do data and logic. The numbers are there for everyone to see including yourself. 20% growth per day is about a minimum. Look at BRiT's daily Ohio numbers - 564 (up from 442) is 27% growth.

Unless you can explain why the numbers would suddenly stop increasing exponentially, they should be expected to do so. At present, the only thing stopping them increasing exponentially are measures to stop the spread such as social distancing. If you removed those, why would the growth level out before millions were infected?

Why not? Do you have a sound theory explaining that, or does it just sound so preposterous it can't be true? Note that it won't infect the entirety of the UK because of natural disease progression, and it'll reach some 60-80% before those who have had it present a buffer against further spread. Predictions are looking at 80% simply because the spread is so peculiar versus normal diseases. Of course, if the medical world is wrong and their models inaccurate, present the correct maths to show how it's not that bad.

In the US, up to 370,000 were thought to have been hopsitalised by flu last year. that's over a period of months. There's presently 52,000 cases of confirmed SARS-CoV2 infections in the US which as a nation is seeing about 30% daily growth. After 30 days without doing anything to stop the spread, 52,000 x 1.3^30 will be 136,000,000 infections. If you dispute that, explain the maths. At 5% 'critical' case rate (best outcome, as 15% are severe or worse), that's 6.8 million people. If you disagree, explain your maths. so 7 million people requiring hospitalisation in one month, versus 400,000 for flu over a period of several months.

If you disagree, explain why the exponential growth will stop, or point out a floor in the models. If you can't argue around the data (and none of the world's scientists have been able to) then you'll need to appreciate Covid19 is something different requiring a different response (or a different outcome, like many dead).
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I could hear the mic drop from here.
 
Canada's numbers as of Mar24. 11am
1739 confirmed cases
437 probable
25 deaths

119013 tested.

Canada's numbers as of Mar24. 6pm
1939 confirmed
833 probable
26 deaths

125062 tested
 
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Don't want to sadden the mood here, but the US is recording 10k new cases of corona per day, my gut feeling is that these consoles will be delayed to 2021.
 
TeamGhobad said:
Don't want to sadden the mood here, but the US is recording 10k new cases of corona per day, my gut feeling is that these consoles will be delayed to 2021.
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Satya recently said Supply/China is coming back on line well, but their could be issues with the demand side, without saying anything specific of course.

I'm optimistic all around, I think heat will start getting to Corona as well. 8 months is so long, hell the 2 weeks since Corona meltdown already feels like eternity.

It could even be Corona continues, but we just learn to live alongside it with less panic by then.

Dont forget USA high cases (compared to many Europe countries of around 60 million population) will result from us having 5X the population, as well as ramping up testing like madmen. More tests equals more positives.
 
The US had 222 deaths and 11k new cases TODAY!

This disease is spreading faster than the spanish flu it seems. The REAL enigma is why do some people show mild symptoms and why do some die regardless of age or physical health. We have healthy young people dying. Second question is why does it seem that people that are exposed to the virus under longer periods of time develop a more serious case of it like with nurses and doctors? Until we can answer these questions this virus is gonna run rampant.
 
rcf said:
So, why is human civilization coming to a halt while going crazy with fear due to a disease that will probably cause much less damage than any single disease listed above?
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Because if it is left unchecked it will have an R_0 of 3, infect billions of people, of which 6% will develop severe symptons; Mortality will be at 1%, or below, as long as there are ICU beds enough. When ICU beds are depleted, mortality jumps to 3-6%. In an unchecked pandemic there will be nowhere near enough ICU beds, so 3-6% of a significant fraction of the world's population would die.

Cheers
 
iroboto said:
It’s not about cases for Germany and Japan. It’s about deaths. They are super low. Japan has very low cases for the preventive measures they have in place.
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I wonder what those are because life is pretty much going on as usual. Trains are still packed and working from home is hardly a thing because the average Japanese manager will have a mental breakdown because how can you be working if we can't see you sit on a chair? It also produces comedy gold such as "yes we will now allow people to work from home but no, not you because the risk on the train line you take is the same as everybody else that takes that train". Whatever that is supposed to mean I do not know. Or "can't go drinking with co-workers anymore but sitting next to them in a overcrowded office for 10 hours a day is perfectly fine".

Stores are, from time to time, less crowded than usual but I wouldn't say there is a massive nation wide difference.
 
In Denmark we have the following numbers today at 10.00:

  • 14,870 tested (doesn't include tests under way or inconclusive results)
  • 1,715 infected
  • 32 deaths
  • ~1,9% of infected have died

Distribution of infected - age and gender (red = women, blue = men)
COVID-19_fordelt-paa-alder-og-koen.ashx
 
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I found some useful numbers for age groups from the Netherlands.

The average age of people who end up in the hospital is 70. Average age of people who die (under the current condition of enough IC) is 80.

20% of people in the hospital for COVID-19 is under 55%, and 10% is under 45. Patients who need artificial respiration need 3-4 weeks of treatment but for our country not enough data because nearly no one has recovered yet.

This is the main problem - the treatment for COVID induced lung failure is so extremely long. Many surgical procedures people are out of the ICU the next day, so this is a disproportionate burden on facilities.

This is going to remain an issue until we find a treatment that can stop the disease sufficiently to prevent serious lung damage.

Until that time, there are going to be a lot more deaths in many areas that are unprepared because they were either too late to respond or too poor to prepare.

Actually here is some good and detailed data from the Netherlands including what age groups end up in the hospital.

Interesting to note: only 25% who end up in the hospital have pre-existing problems, 75% are basically just due to COVID-19.


https://www.rivm.nl/sites/default/files/2020-03/Epidemiologische situatie COVID-19 24 maart 2020.pdf
 
tongue_of_colicab said:
I wonder what those are because life is pretty much going on as usual. Trains are still packed and working from home is hardly a thing because the average Japanese manager will have a mental breakdown because how can you be working if we can't see you sit on a chair? It also produces comedy gold such as "yes we will now allow people to work from home but no, not you because the risk on the train line you take is the same as everybody else that takes that train". Whatever that is supposed to mean I do not know. Or "can't go drinking with co-workers anymore but sitting next to them in a overcrowded office for 10 hours a day is perfectly fine".

Stores are, from time to time, less crowded than usual but I wouldn't say there is a massive nation wide difference.
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You're right, sorry I should have wrote: the lack of preventive measures in place.
There was no shutdown as hard as we have it here.

I think culture may have played a large role in limiting the spread of the virus in Japan. But to be honest, I'm not really sure. I hope people figure it out, we could use some of that here.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Edit: Germany is seeing infection proportion far higher in the younger population.
Unless the young are very isolated from the old, that seems unusual to me.
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It seems to be following the Korea model where where more young were infected.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Unless the young are very isolated from the old, that seems unusual to me.
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One of those interesting stats for the variation of how a disease may affect populations differently based on their pre-conditions, diet, climate, cultural tendencies etc.
 
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