[Console Edition] Satya Nadella: "We are going to make some difficult decisions"

[Deleted member 11852]

I agree. They aren't getting rid of the Xbox One. That would make no sense at all coming off of a strong E3. I know Phil just did an interview talking about bringing games to PC, but he just said that he knows exclusives are the most important thing for the Xbox One at E3.

If Microsoft were planning to drop the console they would continue to market it strongly because they will want revenue from it for as long as possible. No statement wold come until everything in the pipeline that can drive further revenue (Halo, Quantum Break, Tomb Raider, Gears and maybe Crackdown) had their shot at driving sales.

Even then Microsoft's plan would more likely be to suspend any further investment in development or licensing of exclusive games and just let the console roll on with the momentum it has until the end of the generation, with a minimal management team.

Most of the hard work has already been done so unless the business is actually making a loss, there's no real reason to shut it down.

 

[Entropy]

If Microsoft were planning to drop the console they would continue to market it strongly because they will want revenue from it for as long as possible. No statement wold come until everything in the pipeline that can drive further revenue (Halo, Quantum Break, Tomb Raider, Gears and maybe Crackdown) had their shot at driving sales.

Even then Microsoft's plan would more likely be to suspend any further investment in development or licensing of exclusive games and just let the console roll on with the momentum it has until the end of the generation, with a minimal management team.

Most of the hard work has already been done so unless the business is actually making a loss, there's no real reason to shut it down.

Even if it did make a loss, your reasoning would still hold true, as it would minimize losses, and maximize value if they were to spin off or sell (parts of) the business.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Even if it did make a loss, your reasoning would still hold true, as it would minimize losses, and maximize value if they were to spin off or sell (parts of) the business.

If day to day operations are loss making then there's more reason to shut it down and prevent further losses. Selling the business, or significant assets of the business, would be very difficult to keep under wraps.

 

[Entropy]

If day to day operations are loss making then there's more reason to shut it down and prevent further losses. Selling the business, or significant assets of the business, would be very difficult to keep under wraps.

Spinning them off doesn't have to be noticeable at all though, and once spun off...
Also, day to day losses can be turned to short term profit by cancelling R&D, and other investments for the future.

That's not to say this will happen with the XBox, just that it could. It hasn't lived up to their corporate ambitions, but that is not to say the current XBox will be cancelled, nor that there won't be a successor. The product seems to do decently in its home country, and that after all is where the decisions are made.

 

[chris1515]

The Xbox One big 1rst and 2nd party franchise will not be exclusive anymore and will be on PC. I don't think it means the end of the Xbox division.

Maybe Windows Phone will be gone.

Kudo Tsunoda speak about a Gamescom announcement for Halo or Forza games on PC.

 

[iroboto]

The only thing that shouldn't be happening is windows mobile gone. I saw a live demo of the beta hardware running Windows 10 with continuum - guys, it's a game changer. For most people that don't require the horsepower, a mobile phone that can double as a desktop device is exactly where the market will be heading.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Spinning them off doesn't have to be noticeable at all though, and once spun off... Also, day to day losses can be turned to short term profit by cancelling R&D, and other investments for the future.

Cancelling R&D (or any project before it's completed) is likely to be more losses, though. Unless that project is doomed to failure and incapable of generating profit, it would make sense to let to fulfil its potential.

That's not to say this will happen with the XBox, just that it could.

I agree, there's no evidence that they want to get out of gaming but I can see them changing their gaming model so the greater risk is on third parties. This is what Microsoft have traditionally been good at.

 

[bgroovy]

Cancelling R&D (or any project before it's completed) is likely to be more losses, though. Unless that project is doomed to failure and incapable of generating profit, it would make sense to let to fulfil its potential.

That's called the sunk cosy fallacy.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

That's called the sunk cosy fallacy.

How is it a fallacy? If you spend money on a project then cancel it, the money you've spent is lost.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The cost fallacy is that it's better to sink more money into a currently ongoing project to finish it and get something back than abandon it. "In for a penny, in for a pound," or, "I've started so I'll finish." Correct management is to ignore existing sunk costs and look at potential returns on the necessary ongoing investment to bring the product to conclusion versus investing that money in something else. It's this constant evaluation without regard for past costs that leads to products being abandoned even when they look to be in good condition for release.

Which I'm sure you know already!

 

[Jwm]

Continum

The Xbox One big 1rst and 2nd party franchise will not be exclusive anymore and will be on PC. I don't think it means the end of the Xbox division.

Maybe Windows Phone will be gone.

Kudo Tsunoda speak about a Gamescom announcement for Halo or Forza games on PC.

No they are betting big with Continuum on phone, I can see this being huge for some companies (unless it gets copied quickly, works with Word, Excel, etc). They did delay flagship phones until Win Mobile 10 is ready to launch, that has sucked. Got a new build yesterday and it is finally pulling ahead of what WinP8.1 was, seems they are listening to our feedback. I just hope they expect battery life to last more than 8hrs on a phone where I normally pull 2-days.

Xbox Console - it is for the living rooms, etc. Could they kill it off, give us min specs on PC to run the 360 emulator and Xbox One games? Flawless dongle for streaming to TV's?

 

[wco81]

Continuum is what like the Motorola phone that docked to keyboard and monitor so you used the same device at home as well as on the go?

But for that, you need the device to have power, to drive more demanding software as well as to drive bigger displays? But my understanding is that Windows Phone hardware has been stagnant for awhile, especially on the high end.

Instead of competing against iOS and Android flagships, Windows Phone has been competing in the $300 and much less price range, in smaller or less affluent markets?

 

[function]

I think the end game of Continuum is to target businesses more than anything. A single device that can be the core of your phone, tablet, laptop, desktop, video conference, work camera, exchange diary etc. Wireless monitor connection and mouse/kb mean it could transition into anything. Wouldn't even need a physical docking station, in theory.

Integration with the cloud (another of MS's great hopes, that they seem to be having success in) means you could tie into the work network, use whatever custom side-loaded work apps you need, and if you lose the device just disable and get another device and resync everything from the cloud. Low risk, low down time.

Currently, yes, high end Lumias are stagnant on the hardware front. But with Intel x86 mobile quad cores really starting to deliver in fanless form factors, I don't think we're too far off having a "real" work PC in your pocket.

"Hot desking" and ultra mobile devices are what's really going to turn the paperless office into a reality ... that's if anything is.

 

[trainplane]

I seriously doubt MS would drop Windows Phone no matter how bad the marketshare. Mobile is the future whether they like it or not. If they get out, they will realized they need to get back in in a few years and have to restart again. Not the best plan.

Now I do think they could do something drastic. Dropping ARM and going x86 for phones. Or they could even drop Windows 10 and do Android fork like Amazon. But either way they will be on mobile making a platform.

 

[iroboto]

Yep. Mobile is staying for Windows. It's the future and likely wearables of some format is going to be the next frontier. Windows 10 is built to run on any device as low as RaspberryPi. It was a shame I didn't get into the IoT session at Build, but they were given tons of fun stuff to play with!! Having said that Win10 is ready and the UAP will allow different devices to link into each other easily.
Xbox is an interesting question, I don't think it's going anywhere. MS can change the model of how they want to sell it, but they are currently second and still somewhat successful, considering how long they've been holding onto both Bing and WP: it makes no sense to toss away their most successful brand.

 

[RobertR1]

For me, if they kill it, they kill it.

Doesn't take away from all the fun I have with my 360. The XB1 has been a bit of a disappointment but these things happen.

 

[shredenvain]

The Xbox One big 1rst and 2nd party franchise will not be exclusive anymore and will be on PC. I don't think it means the end of the Xbox division.

Maybe Windows Phone will be gone.

Kudo Tsunoda speak about a Gamescom announcement for Halo or Forza games on PC.

There is no evidence that any of this is happening. They have in the past released Xbox titles on PC that at one time exclusive. Gears of war, Halo CE, Halo 2, Alan Wake. These titles release at least 6 months to 1.5 years after their original Xbox release. Ms do have 2 platforms to support after all. The thing is they are able to sell these titles at $60 and more on the console when they launch. PC gamers are used to paying a lot less for AAA games with Steam and all. Console games are still where a majority of publishers make the most money. Yes Ms has a vision where they have a unified store and can give consumers the chance to get cross buy deals. The problem is every publisher isn't going to like this because they will lose money. That is one of the major reasons Ms want to provide Xbox One to PC streaming.

Mark my words for the rest of this console generation Ms will continue to develop and publish console exclusives for the Xbox One. Halo 5 and even 6 will not have a simultaneous release on Xbox and PC. PC may get the MCC and a few other Xbox one titles at a time in the future, but if you are expecting them to release first party titles on both PC and Xbox one in the immediate future you are most likely going to be disappointed. Its just my opinion backed by the fact that they aren't offering preorders for any of their exclusives on PC.

 

[Scott_Arm]

For me, if they kill it, they kill it.

Doesn't take away from all the fun I have with my 360. The XB1 has been a bit of a disappointment but these things happen.

To be honest, there's not a lot out on either the Xbox One or PS4 that I'm really excited about. I'm happy with the Xbox One, but I'm not the gamer I used to be. Five years ago, I may have been disappointed with a console like the X1. I don't know. I also don't have a gaming PC, so the mediocre hardware of current gen doesn't bother me.

I think Microsoft will simply make future Xbox consoles PCs. The games will be PC games, playable on any Windows computer. The console will just carry the Xbox brand, be affordable and have a nice custom ui to make it easy to do multimedia stuff.

 

[Billy Idol]

For me, if they kill it, they kill it.

Doesn't take away from all the fun I have with my 360. The XB1 has been a bit of a disappointment but these things happen.

But I hope that in such a case, they keep the exclusive franchises alive and bring them to PC...

 

[Pixel]

To be honest, there's not a lot out on either the Xbox One or PS4 that I'm really excited about. I'm happy with the Xbox One, but I'm not the gamer I used to be. Five years ago, I may have been disappointed with a console like the X1. I don't know. I also don't have a gaming PC, so the mediocre hardware of current gen doesn't bother me.

I think Microsoft will simply make future Xbox consoles PCs. The games will be PC games, playable on any Windows computer. The console will just carry the Xbox brand, be affordable and have a nice custom ui to make it easy to do multimedia stuff.

There are profit advantages to consoles that PCs don't have:
Royalties
Money from Live subscriptions, No possibly competition to Live (within its own ecosystem (obviously ps online exists but that is a different platform ecosystem), pc gaming community isn't used to paying to play multiplayer
1st party titles get a unique and bigger spotlight and more attention from fans, Something Sega had with its mastersys,genesis, saturn & dreamcast, but everything faded into the the masses once they became a 3rd party company.
Fewer possible competitors on large margin peripherals (eg controllers)
As more closed platform Xbox can be the future sole provider of various services and products, much like Sony attempts to be the sole provider of music services on its PS4, only problem was the Sony music service was not the greatest service compared to the competition.