John Reynolds said:
I have to say I disagree with the wording of that article. It's not a "stunning defeat" by any stretch of the imagination. The two high-end boards are fairly close in performance, yet the differences are because of the approaches the two companies took for this generation. Because of the added transistors required for features like 32fp and SM 3.0 nVidia has a larger chip with a lower clock speed and higher power consumption and ATI has a chip that can be put on boards that'll work in even SFF rigs.
I don't think, though, that anyone put a gun to nVidia's head and forced them to go SM3.0 and fp32, right?...
I mean, fp24 has been the full-precision baseline for DX9 for--18 months now? nVidia plowed millions last year into moving developers away from ps2.0+ and towards ps1.x, and so 3.0 is destined for a rocky start at best in terms of *real* developer support, even if nVidia's yields for nV40U are optimal. (This is an example of why negative PR is bad for companies--if they change their minds they end up having to undo what they've already done--which is costly and time consuming at the least.)
Right now there's not a single game destined to be released this year, or probably next, that will even require fp24 precision, much less fp32, to render as intended without artifacts (one reason for that is that there are still plenty of integer-only 3d cards in circulation, which developers certainly do not wish to exclude at this time, and the other is that developers haven't matured and refined their own internal tools to support the color precision capabilities of full-precision fp rendering as of yet.) Neither D3 or HL2 will require it--that's a given at this stage. It's certainly no defense this product generation to claim that nVidia "didn't know" anything about DX9 and that it's "M$'s fault" again (just speaking of those who blame M$ for nV3x instead of nVidia), is it? Heh...
The real area to me in which this might well actually become a "stunning defeat" for nVidia is in the prospect of yields--which are usually poor/poor-er with higher transistor counts and larger dies which require more power and dissipate more heat. I think nVidia's already had to come off of its initial target of 475MHz for the 6800U and drop it back to 400MHz for the sake of yields, which may still be problematic even at that MHz clock in terms of a profitable situation for nVidia. They'll probably yield well at 350MHz, though, for the GT, I would imagine and would certainly hope, for their sakes. I also think that in terms of system OEM deployment (Dell, etc.) that even with acceptable nV40U yields it will be the added power and heat dissipation issues relative to nV40U cards that will heavily move these companies into the ATi x800 Pro/PE camp (again, nVidia should have learned this lesson from the company it absorbed, 3dfx, and the V5 series.)
I mean, it all adds up to what *could be* a stunning defeat for nVidia, this time as well, since nV40U yields may put nVidia in a spot similar to where it was for most of '03 with respect to yields out of nV30/5/8. And if that should happen it won't be anybody's fault except nVidia's, for over-engineering the nV40 part. But I'll agree with you that based on a purely academic comparison of prototype cards provided reviewers thus far (not counting marketing bullets like nVidia's "ps3.0" support versus ATi's 2.0a/b+ support since we don't yet know if the added ps3.0 features nVidia supports that ATi doesn't will actually be incentive for either developers to support it or customers to acquire it), there isn't a lot of apparent difference at this point in overall performance. That's why I think the real battlefield between nV40U and x800Pro/Pe will be which one is brought to market in greater numbers to meet demand, and which one the system OEMs show a preference for. I think from what I've seen so far that ATi has a perceivable advantage over nVidia in both categories at this time.
I just checked here when writing this post:
http://www.bestbuy.com ..and both the x800 Pro and x800 PE are listed, with respective availability dates soonest of 5/14 and 6/15. Best Buy has no 6800U products listed whatsoever, with any availability dates whatever. So, at least right now it sure looks like ATi handled the situation better than nVidia in regards to actually making something they could bring to market in a timely fashion. nVidia's situation could improve, of course, any day now, but right now that's the way it appears.