GameCat said:So you're wrong nelg. Stans chance of being executed is 2/3 just like Joe said. The thread I linked to has elaborate explanations of all this. The really funny part is that the probability that Eric gets killed is 1/3, so Stan would be better off "switching places" with him if it was possible.
O.K. I will try this sans caffeine. If two out of three are going to die, then in any group of two at least 1 will die. If there is no information, with regards to Erics status, from the guard then the only new information that Stan receives is that Kenny will certainly die. With the certainty out of the way all we know is that one of two remaining will die giving a probability of ½ for either Stan or Eric.