smh.. oh Tom. I hate to call you out on it; but you're the senior editor at The Verge. You should know better than this.
You know it's nonsense not because MS is trying to 'surprise' Sony. That's a terrible fanboy take.
You know it's nonsense because none of your data points converge. It's your job to only publish something when your sources and all the data points line up.
MS could very well be sending out a variety of non-finalized specs to a variety of different 3p partners not in the hopes of screwing over Sony but in hopes that you (journalists) cannot converge the data points. I wouldn't say that's lying to their partners, but let's be real, most of the leaks are coming from sources they cannot contain (likely 3P). Not to mention this is an effective method of seeing who is breaking their NDA (by seeing which one of their specs are leaked online). Once the real dev kits are out, convergence will be much faster. So MS is probably just sitting on it until they feel it's worthwhile to risk those specs getting out. I think they have sufficient data points that suggest that developers can develop for MS without the devkit; considering how much reuse there will be with the tools and APIs.