Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

Status
Not open for further replies.
Well I look at this 2 ways:

1. He is out of the loop with regards to AMD's RT because they are using something different (though I am still skeptical of this because of that Cerny quote stating the "There is ray-tracing acceleration in the GPU hardware")

2. A much worse case scenario.... AMD RT is far behind in development/not working well enough that even the engineers at the console manufactures don't know it's technical capabilities yet....
It could very well be that there's a bandwidth requirement or something similar as much as it's a dig at AMD RT solution. Like the GitHub stuff, I'm just not seeing enough information yet to draw any conclusions.
 
It could very well be that there's a bandwidth requirement or something similar as much as it's a dig at AMD RT solution. Like the GitHub stuff, I'm just not seeing enough information yet to draw any conclusions.


"The github stuff" has already been fairly well proved out for the Microsoft side though hasn't it, with the release of official Series X specs? So that means half the equation is correct and only the Sony side yet too be officially determined.
 
"The github stuff" has already been fairly well proved out for the Microsoft side though hasn't it, with the release of official Series X specs? So that means half the equation is correct and only the Sony side yet too be officially determined.

the chances of it being highly accurate on one side and not on the other is slim.

I’m not vouching for specifics just adding some simple logic.
 
How did this confirm the data from github?
Guess I should be asking, any more than what was known before?
The only specific detail this gave was 12TF, not frequency or cu count etc.
To be fair my impression was that github had a lot less xsx data in it. Serious question as I didn't dig into it.
 
How did this confirm the data from github?
Guess I should be asking, any more than what was known before?
The only specific detail this gave was 12TF, not frequency or cu count etc.
To be fair my impression was that github had a lot less xsx data in it. Serious question as I didn't dig into it.
It didn't. I think Arden part of Github was all but confirmed once MS shown die shot, 320bit bus and confirmed VRS and RT.
 
"The github stuff" has already been fairly well proved out for the Microsoft side though hasn't it, with the release of official Series X specs? So that means half the equation is correct and only the Sony side yet too be officially determined.
I'm not discounting GitHub, I'm saying it's incomplete information.

Perhaps there's a need for a quicker SSD or more bandwidth or something else to make RT work in the manner he's questioning. As funny, cynical or ironic as it may sound, we may be looking at an early argument about balance from the Sony side.

If Sony truly have an 8 or 9 TF GPU, they may have found that their implementation of RT with everything else just didn't see enough of an improvement to justify additional CUs. Or they saw better overall performance when 8/9TF was paired with quicker SSD and more relative bandwidth and the additional CUs was wasted silicon. We just don't know and without more information, we can't judge the philosophy that went into the design and the trade offs they chose to make yet.

Of course, its possible that they genuinely screwed up or wanted to be able to control cost based on their analysis and previous experience with expensive consoles.

In any case, PR spin, balance/diminished returns, x factor impacting hardware design or cost could be responsible. We just don't know. Nevermind, this entire discussion is rooted in obscure reference point and lots of conjecture.

I will say, I'd be shocked if Sony wasn't using AMD RT solution. The lesson from previous generations should be to focus on off the shelf hardware and maintain bc not invest proprietary solutions which create issues later with your ecosystem.
 
This idea of Sony having some massive break through with RT by doing it secretly on their own has the same credibility as that Jeff Rigby guy bending over backward to show 4k Blu Ray support coming to the PS4.
 
It sounds like a wishful best case scenario of a super secret sauce. MS was serious about aiming as high as possible to bring the most powerful console. And they achieved it. Thats it all. Sony missed it this time. And I doubt that it is more likely that Sony would come up with a more powerful console or a significantly more efficient one.
 
It sounds like a wishful best case scenario of a super secret sauce. MS was serious about aiming as high as possible to bring the most powerful console. And they achieved it. Thats it all. Sony missed it this time. And I doubt that it is more likely that Sony would come up with a more powerful console or a significantly more efficient one.

There remain possibilities the PS5 can be comparable or faster using TRADITIONAL means of a powerful cpu/gpu but this 'secret sauce' noise just derails every conversation. Even after the reveal, this type of noise continues to linger and keeps serving as a distraction.

Doesn't mean there are no areas of differentiation. Innovation in loading times is well within the realm of achieveable. There's plenty of things baked in reality that can still come true that fantasy tropes aren't needed.
 
This idea of Sony having some massive break through with RT...
Who says it's a massive breakthrough? Could just be different, such as less powerful but more versatile, or faster in some specific RT workloads while compromised in others. As for why Sony should have tech worked on in secret, 1) they don't publicly talk about R&D - who does? So of course and investigations would be in secret. 2) None of the GPU makers were talking about RTRT (working on it in secret as nVidia was, and doing nothing as AMD was) so if Sony felt that was an area that could be pursued for PS5 but they couldn't rely on their GPU partners to offer a solution, they could investigate it themselves. Sony aren't averse to creating custom silicon to build the platform they want.

I'm not arguing it's likely, but it's not preposterous as you suggest.

this 'secret sauce' noise just derails every conversation
It can't derail the conversation if it is the conversation, and what the hell else do you want to talk about?! You want another round of "which GAF source is fake"? What threads are being derailed?
 
There remain possibilities the PS5 can be comparable or faster using TRADITIONAL means of a powerful cpu/gpu but this 'secret sauce' noise just derails every conversation. Even after the reveal, this type of noise continues to linger and keeps serving as a distraction.

Doesn't mean there are no areas of differentiation. Innovation in loading times is well within the realm of achieveable. There's plenty of things baked in reality that can still come true that fantasy tropes aren't needed.
Well so far nothing indicates that the PS5 is comparable or faster using traditional means. We got the hint for a 12 TF Series X and now we got confirmation. All hints indicated a 9TF PS5 which I see highly likely. The series X achieved high performance with extra juice to spare because of the RDNA 2 efficiencies. The Series X is the definition of achieving max performance through Traditional means. Sony achieving the same performance using similar solutions is probably the closest realistic best case scenario we can get at this point.
The other scenario is that Sony went with a less straightforward solution and is most likely weaker which brings up memories of old.
 
And BAM! Just like that PS5 is confirmed not to be 8 or 9TF:LOL:
qfpfqwJ.png

51vigR5.png

Also new tidbits from O'dium reiterate PS5 is possibly around 10.8-11.2TF and among other things.
Ok here is what I’ll say, taken from what I’ve been told plus captain obvious statements.

* Both systems are rdna 2, but not. They are essentially rdna 1.9 so to speak, with features bolted on, meaning that you can call it the next generation of rdna, you could even call it rdna 2 if you wanted. I wouldn’t myself but that seems to be what they are doing so ok.

* as of very recently SX still had the cpu power crown in an older dev kit (which still wasn’t final), which matches these specs. Sony have a more final dev kit out that matches their target specs that is clocked slightly lower. The actual difference in cpu clock speed isn’t as high as you may think, but still in favour of SX (like a couple hundres MHz) Cpu clocks can be changed slightly, if you have enough room for it, but don’t expect miracles. I don’t have a value, a hard figure, sorry.

* GPU power grunt is much much the same as the above, with SX taking a lead over PS5, again based on target specs and finality of dev kits. This can also be changed if you have the room for it, even now, but again talking slight, slight clock increases. PS5 is already having higher temp thermals, so I doubt they can do much (see below). I also don’t have a concrete figure here
1f62d.png


* memory wise, both systems are on par. 16gb ddr6. Let go of the HBM2 dream, it was never on the cards to begin with. What I can’t ascertain however, is if either are using a split memory pool for OS level tasks. I haven’t had a single straight answer on that one, other than “its complicated, but yes, and no”. That leads me to believe that possibly something else is going on here. If the PS5 has a separate look of let’s say 4gb DDR4 then they can use the full 16gb for games opposed to less for the SX. But what’s been alluded to for me is a bit strange, almost like you don’t have to worry about it as much. Which I can’t understand at all? Any ideas?

* cooling wise I’ll mention again that SX is silent, even in its older dev kits. But PS5, everything I’ve heard has said quiet, much quieter than ps4, but they had issues with thermals being too high still. Seems to be an ongoing thing as this has been an ongoing issue. So i expect both to be quiet, sx slightly quieter, but much better than the jet engines of today. That also lines up with a higher boom price for cooling on PS5, because maybe they are at a good sound level, but not at a good thermal level, so are pushing that further.

* SSD tech, I’ve covered so many times it makes my eyes bleed. Sony are targeting about 5.5-5.8gb/sec. SX are “within 1gb/sec of this, maybe lower if they hit their target”. Essentially, the controller quality and speed difference are in favour for PS5, but as with other components it won’t actually matter for 99% of shit you see or do, and even first parties will have a hard time showing that. Don’t expect this massive 2x faster rubbish that some people are peddling.

* nobody knows anything to do with price. Nobody. Anybody that comes along and starts blabbering about price like a set in stone thing is full of it. If I had to guess, I would say they will be on par, due to how similar things are? But that’s a guess. Both companies can take a Loss but that’s up to them. I would wager £450-£500 myself, as anything more would be a tough ask. But this is an interesting battlefield to watch.

* terra flop wise, it’s hard to get a clear picture of. I’m actually going to say what I was told earlier... “Notice MS keep saying it’s 12tf of power, but not once have they said 12.0tf?” So it’s possible SX may be higher than a bang on 12tf, such as 12.2. No idea. But target specs for PS5 have been high 10tf to low 11tf for a while, including their more final dev kit. It’s worth noting that if PS5 release let’s say a 11.2tf PS5 and ms release a 12tf SX, the price of the systems will be essentially on par, but the performance will also be so damn close you wouldn’t really notice unless pointed out. I don’t know why people are posting above 13tf, 13.8? Haha, ok. Erm, look, the 12 dream was very hard to reach at a decent price, a decent thermal balance profile and keeping things realistic. A small margin of difference lower in tf power isn’t gong to make a huge difference to price of components. But pushing higher is going into too far into the expensive vs achievable realm. It’s just not going to happen. Your walking head first into an area where price, heat and yields are all working against your profit margins, and it’s just not realistic to think any of that. But who knows? Maybe Sony have a trick up their sleeve? But if they do, my few friends with dev kits (one first party) haven’t been privy to it.

That’s pretty much all I’ve been told, all I can tell without going into “on shit” territory, and a little guess work. Based on a few chats with a few friends of mine, that all could be tales from their arse, are all strikingly similar despite working for different dev houses in different locations. I have no idea about form factor or what the consoles look like, sadly. The final PS5 dev kit that’s floating around is still very much like the V shape, just smaller. So who knows, maybe they are going that way with design? No idea.

Only reason I’ve posted the above as i have, is so if anything breaks news wise for Sony, I have something to point back to, because even though I’ve spent weeks posting in this thread and people have read a lot of my break downs etc, suddenly I have to provide evidence etc of past posts? so here is the search term to find it “GavsPostNobodyGivesAShitAbout”.

But I won’t stress it enough... these consoles are going to be so close. It will be like picking between two twin sisters, one with a mole on her left tit and one with a mole on her left arse cheek. But decide if your a boob or a tit man and have some fun. I’ve been saying that for a while, and before that the ps5 had the edge. Things change, as they did a few times before, but I’m thinking this is where the doe fall this time.

I’m not an insider, I never want to be called that, I just have a few friends I’ve worked with before who work at a few select places. Om an indie developer who has worked with several people in the past who have access to development kits. For all I know they are having a laugh with me, but it all seems to match up, and if you read the tea leaves, it all makes sense as a good prediction.

So as always just go enjoy the games you want on the system you like. The above is all pure speculation, don’t take it as final, don’t take it as insider knowledge, just have a little fun with it. The 9tf dream is dead. But so is the dream of one console being vastly better than the other. I know instantly people will jump on me and start having a go, and that’s to be expected. I’m essentially telling you something you don’t want to hear, so it’s inevitable. But use your noggins lads.
Pack it up 9TF worshipers, Github played you like a fiddle.
 
And BAM! Just like that PS5 is confirmed not to be 8 or 9TF:LOL:
qfpfqwJ.png

51vigR5.png

Also new tidbits from O'dium reiterate PS5 is possibly around 10.8-11.2TF and among other things.

Pack it up 9TF worshipers, Github played you like a fiddle.
Which user did the block of test come from? It reads so poorly, as in fabricated.
 
He's an indie dev on Gaf who has contacts with other devs that have near final devkits including one first party dev. He's been brought up here in the last few pages too.
 

Man, I REALLY wish Imagination Tech would get back into the PC space. I don't know if they would do better than they did the last time, but with the recent focus on RT, I'd think that would give them a real shot at shaking things up.

Also, while I think it highly unlikely that their RT solution would be used in the PS5, I'd be absolutely tickled pink if it did end up being used there.

Regards,
SB
 
I think we're finally getting somewhere, PS5 is highly likely not 9.2TF from the influx of new info. It also aligns with a previous rumor that both it and XSX are using the Big Navi die, so the only difference being the PC tower form factor of XSX vs potentially a much smaller, flat sitting PS5 as the former allows better thermal control thus affording 1 extra TF of power?
 
Man, I REALLY wish Imagination Tech would get back into the PC space. I don't know if they would do better than they did the last time, but with the recent focus on RT, I'd think that would give them a real shot at shaking things up.
Gaming drivers might be the biggest hurdle. :p Otherwise, I wonder about workstation/professional CG applications.
 
Gaming drivers might be the biggest hurdle. :p Otherwise, I wonder about workstation/professional CG applications.

Yeah. Is the GPU architecture so different that they wouldn't be able to have a performant DX driver? I don't think this should be that much of a problem for the professional/research market, however.

Alternatively they could maybe do something like the old 3DFX Voodoo and have it piggyback off another system GPU and intercept all RT.

Where is Rhys when you need him? :D

Regards,
SB
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top