I think it’s clear he had information from developers. What is not clear is what the developers received.
What if they purposefully and only sent a devkit to represent Lockhart because Anaconda isn’t ready?
In June he got the information from developers of the PS5's target specs being the most powerful. Also in June, many other very credible sources said Lockhart had been axed for a while.
Occam's razor is very clear here.
What exactly do you think the chances are that Lockhart had been an active project up to 4 days leading to E3, in that time some devs gave the journalists the info about the PS5 being more powerful than Lockhart, and all of a sudden no developer was talking about Lockhart?
And just to make something clear here (because there's a mod who apparently gets super triggered by credible sources quoting developers saying PS5 is more powerful than Scarlett and reacts by moving dozens of technical posts to this thread, locking the other one, editing posts, etc.):
- One console will definitely be "more powerful" than the other in paper, even if it's by 5 GFLOPs due to a dozen MHz more on one side.
I don't think for a second that it will be the same difference 40% difference in compute throughput and 150% difference in memory bandwidth (partially mitigated by the 32MB eDRAM) we saw between the PS4 and the XBone.
I think it will be at most a 15% difference because the architectures will be similar if not identic, no one is going to adopt an ancient and slow memory tech that needs to occupy 1/3rd of the SoC with edram to compensate and no one is going to repeat the same kinect tv tv sports mistake again.
And then 10-15% won't be noticeable to end users, especially in the age of VRR with dynamic scaling.
The problem here IMO was Phil Spencer in 2018 promising to have the faster next-gen console two years later, without possibly knowing the full extent of Sony's plans.
I love what Phil has done to XBox, especially after the clusterfuck left by Don Matrick, but that was a dumb move. It was that statement that made XBox fans obsess with hardware power, who are now killing the messenger.
Sony has a much larger userbase, and basic economy of scale and risk assessment applies: they can risk subsidizing a larger percentage of the hardware because their amount of minimum assured sales for software is larger.
Why Phil Spencer thought he'd get the larger SoC or faster clocks or whatever is beyond me. Perhaps he was blindsided by rumors or false info of Sony targeting aate 2019 / early 2020 release, so his team accounted for Sony using at best a sub-300mm^2 SoC that couldn't be larger due to predicted 7nm DUV yields.
A larger LLC should help mitigate requests on a shared external bus.
Yes but there are many rumors pointing to both consoles using a pool of DDR4 for the O.S., to which the CPU should probably get exclusive access. Not having to compete as much with the GPU for access to the faster DRAM (be it HBM or GDDR6) should also mitigate the need for a large L3.
I'm not saying this is what will happen, I'm just providing examples of how two similarly sized SoCs sharing the same (or at least
very similar) CPU and GPU architectures could get slighlty different performance targets, considering that Microsoft already said they will be renting Azure servers with Scarlett to service loads other than cloud gaming.