Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[Shifty Geezer]

Seems like quite a few people were very optimistic back then as well

B3D has covered predictions for every platform since PS3, including all handhelds. In every case, every more optimistic, special-sauce theory, was wrong. We've never had AI processors or physics processors or 500 mm² chips or Power7 CPUs. When good engineering sense is applied, it's been effective in reducing possibilities to likely ones, which the final machines end up being.

We can see that here (the prediction thread, not the baseless rumour thread!) pretty well too. Predictions are based around price-points and thermals. The possibility of a larger XBSX chip only becomes realistic once we see a case design that clearly is addressing a hotter system.

As dull as it may be, console prediction probably isn't that hard. Eliminate any dream scenarios and go with what's pretty straight forward. In that respect, though there's technical reason why a Sony special RT solution may exist, precedent tells us it's very unlikely.

 

[Xbat]

B3D has covered predictions for every platform since PS3, including all handhelds. In every case, every more optimistic, special-sauce theory, was wrong. W

Not so sure about that, everyone seemed to think 8GB gddr 5 was impossible for the PS4. If I remember correctly.

 

[snc]

B3D has covered predictions for every platform since PS3, including all handhelds. In every case, every more optimistic, special-sauce theory, was wrong. We've never had AI processors or physics processors or 500 mm² chips or Power7 CPUs. When good engineering sense is applied, it's been effective in reducing possibilities to likely ones, which the final machines end up being.

We can see that here (the prediction thread, not the baseless rumour thread!) pretty well too. Predictions are based around price-points and thermals. The possibility of a larger XBSX chip only becomes realistic once we see a case design that clearly is addressing a hotter system.

As dull as it may be, console prediction probably isn't that hard. Eliminate any dream scenarios and go with what's pretty straight forward. In that respect, though there's technical reason why a Sony special RT solution may exist, precedent tells us it's very unlikely.

I would say pc-like tower xbox with probably 12tf navi + hw rt after 5700xt premiere sounded like microsoft fanboy dream so...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Not so sure about that, everyone seemed to think 8GB gddr 5 was impossible for the PS4. If I remember correctly.

that's because the GDDR5 spec allowed for a doubling of RAM without needing to change anything. Sony made a last minute change when the tech happened to become available and affordable in the nick of time. No-one could have predicted that years in advance, which is why MS went with the choice early on for 8GBs DDR and then eSRAM to provide the BW rather than go with 4GB fast GDDR. Sony chose 4 GBs GDDR for the convenience of a single pool of RAM, and then were able to boost it.

RAM is the only tech that can get a bump at the last minute besides clock-speeds and it isn't a special-sauce solution. It's an option effectively built into the platform that can be changed, unlike processors and fancy unheard-of techs.

I would say pc-like tower xbox with probably 12tf navi + hw rt after 5700xt premiere sounded like microsoft fanboy dream so...

Every forecast is predicated on a price. If you look at the discussion in the Prediction thread, ideas of GPU sizes etc are given an assumed typical console price and power envolope, with the caveat that, of course, if someone wants to go bigger and more expensive, they can. Any hope founded on existing tech is fine. How many dreams for HBM and second GPUs happen though? None.

 

[Xbat]

that's because the GDDR5 spec allowed for a doubling of RAM without needing to change anything. Sony made a last minute change when the tech happened to become available and affordable in the nick of time. No-one could have predicted that years in advance, which is why MS went with the choice early on for 8GBs DDR and then eSRAM to provide the BW rather than go with 4GB fast GDDR. Sony chose 4 GBs GDDR for the convenience of a single pool of RAM, and then were able to boost it.

I know why it was possible I'm just commenting on your post about the predictions. Most people here and well everywhere including digital Foundry, if I'm remembering correctly said it wasn't possible and wasn't going to happen.

People were even mocked for believing it or even bringing it up.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

RAM is the only tech that can get a bump at the last minute besides clock-speeds and it isn't a special-sauce solution. It's an option effectively built into the platform that can be changed, unlike processors and fancy unheard-of techs.

AFAIR, there have been a number of unheard-of techs in pretty much every console generation except the last.

 

[RDGoodla]

that's because the GDDR5 spec allowed for a doubling of RAM without needing to change anything.

How many dreams for HBM and second GPUs happen though? None.

A lot people didn’t know the real deal between SONY and GDDR manufacturers, that was why they predicted wrong.

The same thing happened this time. Almost no people predicted NVMe SSD for consoles but next-gen really have NVMe SSD.

We lack the accurate price/cost of electronic manufacturers so we would make wrong predictions.

 

[Globalisateur]

A lot people didn’t know the real deal between SONY and GDDR manufacturers, that was why they predicted wrong.

The same thing happened this time. Almost no people predicted NVMe SSD for consoles but next-gen really have NVMe SSD.

We lack the accurate price/cost of electronic manufacturers so we would make wrong predictions.

Exactly. Like the way (allegedly ) Sony are the only one already using Samsung 18gbps GDDR6 chips that we know off.

Maybe in 2021 we will all be like:
"Give me a break ! we didn't know the roadmaps of TSMC processes given to Sony in 2017. But yeah, 7nm EUV node actually makes perfectly sense for PS5 APU bla bla"

@BRiT what phase of denial currently ?

 

[N2O]

And why would Sony the only one use it?

 

[mpg1]

A lot people didn’t know the real deal between SONY and GDDR manufacturers, that was why they predicted wrong.

The same thing happened this time. Almost no people predicted NVMe SSD for consoles but next-gen really have NVMe SSD.

We lack the accurate price/cost of electronic manufacturers so we would make wrong predictions.

I believe Albert Penello said they get components for a fair bit cheaper than one would think. I mean it's not like they are just strolling up to Best Buy and buying one NVMe drive...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The same thing happened this time. Almost no people predicted NVMe SSD for consoles but next-gen really have NVMe SSD.

There was very divided opinion on SSD. It was definitely a possibility and as the price has plummeted, that possibility tended towards probability.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

AFAIR, there have been a number of unheard-of techs in pretty much every console generation except the last.

What were these then? Any magic sauce predicted, poo-poo'd, but actually manifest in real products? Off the top of my head, everything ever hoped for for Nintendo (Power7, AI processors) never happened. Every suggestion of physics processors are atypical processors came to nothing. We saw ancillary tech like motion controls, but I can't recall any major architectural designs that were discredited but actually featured besides the 8 GBs GDDR5 in PS4.

There have been a few techs unforecast that made it, like 360's smart eDRAM. In that respect something unexpected could certainly make an appearance.

 

[mpg1]

There was very divided opinion on SSD. It was definitely a possibility and as the price has plummeted, that possibility tended towards probability.

The price has come down a lot in the last couple years in particular. I still think early adopters of these consoles will get burned a bit by the 1TB capacity in the long run. 2TB would be more ideal.

Looking at XSX I don't really see any indication of a removable drive. So I guess they'll push using external drives for additional capacity again.

But I'm curious if Sony's solution will have a removable drive again. Would it be as easy to implement removability for NVMe as it is for HDD?

 

[AlphaWolf]

The price has come down a lot in the last couple years in particular. I still think early adopters of these consoles will get burned a bit by the 1TB capacity in the long run. 2TB would be more ideal.

Looking at XSX I don't really see any indication of a removable drive. So I guess they'll push using external drives for additional capacity again.

But I'm curious if Sony's solution will have a removable drive again. Would it be as easy to implement removability for NVMe as it is for HDD?

It will be unlikely to be replaceable at all if it's got Sony secret sauce on it. So some folks might be careful with what they wish for.

External options are probably out for MS also, unless that unknown slot is for fast media.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

What were these then? Any magic sauce predicted, poo-poo'd, but actually manifest in real products? Off the top of my head, everything ever hoped for for Nintendo (Power7, AI processors) never happened. Every suggestion of physics processors are atypical processors came to nothing. We saw ancillary tech like motion controls, but I can't recall any major architectural designs that were discredited but actually featured besides the 8 GBs GDDR5 in PS4.

There have been a few techs unforecast that made it, like 360's smart eDRAM. In that respect something unexpected could certainly make an appearance.

From the top of my mind:
- PS Vita with Wide IO dedicated VRAM
- X360 with separate eDRAM + ROPs chip that provided free 2x MSAA
- 3DS using an iGPU from a fabless semiconductor company no one had ever heard of
- Gamecube with Flipper's TEV units offering pixel shader (-esque) effects at a fraction of the cost and power consumption of Xbox's NV2A.
- Flipper with a large (at the time) amount of embedded 1T-SRAM

Of course, as we go further back than 6th gen consoles, things go exponentially more exquisite on all sides, from all companies.
Sega 32X + CD, SNES with graphics coprocessors in the game cartridge, etc.


For the 9th gen I think there's a (small) chance we'll see an off-chip RT co-processor from Sony, and a larger chance we'll see a dedicated chip for handling storage.

 

[upnorthsox]

Exactly. Like the way (allegedly ) Sony are the only one already using Samsung 18gbps GDDR6 chips that we know off.

Maybe in 2021 we will all be like:
"Give me a break ! we didn't know the roadmaps of TSMC processes given to Sony in 2017. But yeah, 7nm EUV node actually makes perfectly sense for PS5 APU bla bla"

@BRiT what phase of denial currently ?

Yeah like nobody could have predicted that Patrick Mahomes we be so good. Just face the fact that Mitch Trubisky was the best option available and be happy with what you have......

Edit...Oops wrong forum.

 

[mpg1]

External options are probably out for MS also, unless that unknown slot is for fast media.

Thunderbolt 3 would cut it wouldn't it?

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

Possibly.

Possibly. 28 months before hardware release.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Thunderbolt 3 would cut it wouldn't it?

For it to come under consoles built by AMD, it would probably need to be using the USB4 moniker and it would need a 3rd-party controller.

Maybe a NVMe slot would make more sense.

 

[mpg1]

For it to come under consoles built by AMD, it would probably need to be using the USB4 moniker and it would need a 3rd-party controller.

Maybe a NVMe slot would make more sense.

I don't really see any indication from the renderings of XSX of a slot but who knows.

According to Thurrot.com it has "two USB-A ports (of the SuperSpeed variety)". That could offer up to 1.2GB/s depending on which version it is. Obviously not as fast as the internal drive but maybe people will have to live with it?