Atlactic current dramatically slowing down!

[Deepak]

Atlantic current dramatically slowing down!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/scienceclimateeurope;_ylt=Aveb2_2NJBSMXp2L3u6CPUUbr7sF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

PARIS (AFP) - The Atlantic current that gives western Europe its mild climate is dramatically slowing, and Britain, Ireland and parts of the European continent could be plunged into bitter winters a decade or so from now, scientists say.

What stunned the researchers was the discovery, extrapolated from this data, that the northern spur -- Europe's precious heat conveyor -- has slumped by 30 percent in volume since 1998.

The suspected culprit: a massive inrush of freshwater into the northern Atlantic, caused by melting glaciers in Greenland and melting sea ice, and higher flow into the Arctic from Siberian rivers caused by greater rainfall.

"If the conveyor belt continues to slow right down, a drop of 4 C (7.2 F) in the average annual temperature in northwestern Europe could happen," says Meric Srokosz, a science coordinator at Britain's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), which oversaw the research.

"It won't be an instant thing, like in (the 2004 Hollywood movie) 'The Day After Tomorrow.' We're talking about in a decade or so. And we're not talking Ice Age, we are talking about more regular, extreme colder weather in winter," he said in an
interview.

 

[Guden Oden]

Hum, well, 30% since 98. So how much has the current varied before that? And how accurate are our data points (and how far into the past do they stretch)? It's important to put things into perspective before taking an alarmist position.

I ask this because our winters surely haven't been 30% colder since 98 over here. Quite the opposite, they've become increasingly crappier (measurably so even) every year.

*Edit: isn't this a RSPC topic anyway?

 

[Deepak]

I ask this because our winters surely haven't been 30% colder since 98 over here. Quite the opposite, they've become increasingly crappier (measurably so even) every year.

Crappier means warmer? Anyway this year winter seems to have set early in Northern India, it is 2nd Dec today and I am wearing a jacket. Forcasts predict harsher winter this year.

 

[Gubbi]

Luckily the Gulf stream and the fresh water melting has a negative feedback relationship

Increased melting of fresh water -> slower Gulf stream -> colder climate up north ->less fresh water melting -> faster Gulfstream ..... etc.

Cheers
Gubbi

 

[assen]

Luckily the Gulf stream and the fresh water melting has a negative feedback relationship

Increased melting of fresh water -> slower Gulf stream -> colder climate up north ->less fresh water melting -> faster Gulfstream ..... etc.

Ummm... no. There's a strong positive feedback relationship due to the different albedo of ice and, ummm, whatever is there when there is no ice (ground/water): more heat -> floating ice melts -> water (which is darker than ice) absorbing more heat, and the other way round too: less heat -> more ice -> more sunlight reflected back -> less heat.

 

[Cartoon Corpse]

any sailors reporting that gulfstream trips are getting slower and slower?

 

[Fred]

For a discussion on this try by pro global warming people

http://www.realclimate.org/

There is some controversy here as we have seen some rather disparate experimental results and the dynamics are rather hard to pin down in general (ocean currents are quite complicated).

 

[suryad]

So what I dont get is...sure global warming could be natural. There are theories out about it being a cycle blah blah blah....and there are theories as to global warming being caused by us dumping CO2 into the atmosphere. Being the humanist that I am....I am easily leaning towards putting the blame on humankind. What do you guys think? Global warming = natural process or global warming = manmade process?

 

[Sxotty]

Crappier means warmer? Anyway this year winter seems to have set early in Northern India, it is 2nd Dec today and I am wearing a jacket. Forcasts predict harsher winter this year.

Which is completely irrelevant since the gulf stream does not go into the indian ocean magically

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

So what I dont get is...sure global warming could be natural. There are theories out about it being a cycle blah blah blah....and there are theories as to global warming being caused by us dumping CO2 into the atmosphere. Being the humanist that I am....I am easily leaning towards putting the blame on humankind. What do you guys think? Global warming = natural process or global warming = manmade process?

Natural process that we are amplifying and speeding up.

 

[Frank]

Natural process that we are amplifying and speeding up.

Probably. As far as most scientists believe, and with a strong political backing. Our mileage may vary. But probably that's the case. And we would all really want to know where it's taking us/the Earth.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

Luckily the Gulf stream and the fresh water melting has a negative feedback relationship

Increased melting of fresh water -> slower Gulf stream -> colder climate up north ->less fresh water melting -> faster Gulfstream ..... etc.

Cheers
Gubbi

Gulf Stream is the air current. The warm ocean current underneath that helps create it is the Atlantic Conveyer. The melting ice is not affecting the conveyer because it is changing the temperature of the water, but because the extra fresh water is reducing the salinity of the North Atlantic, causing the warm water of the Gulf Stream not to sink as quickly. As the warm water is sinking more slowly, it slows down the whole recirculation loop of the conveyer.

The problem with this is that models predict that the conveyer doesn't just stop and start depending on the salinity/temperature. The system has momentum, and once it stutters to a halt (which can happen in a few tens of year) it will be very difficult to get recirculating again, maybe taking many thousands of years.

 

[CosmoKramer]

Gulf Stream is the air current.

Not if you are from Sweden (or Germany I presume).

 

[Cartoon Corpse]

that's the jet stream (air current). in USA we call the current that runs up off the east coast, the Gulf Stream. since well, since it sounds cool i guess.

 

[blakjedi]

Jet Stream is a continental air flow originating in Alaska thats dips into the northern part of the USA. The Gulf stream derives from the heated waters of the Gulf of mexico that travels north and east over the eastern part of the US and eventually mingles with the Jet stream over the North Atlantic states of the US ...

Two separate and powerful weather conveyors

 

[Crisidelm]

Eventually leading to something like this?

I don't think the Gulf Stream was "working" back then...

 

[Guden Oden]

Jet Stream is a continental air flow originating in Alaska <...>

And in the movie "Outbreak", the spread of the superbug virus ends at the borders of mainland U.S... There is something called "the rest of the world" also, and this place amazingly enough houses roughly 97% of humanity...

The jet streams actually goes around the circumference of the globe (at some more or less fixed latitudes), they don't exist solely within the borders of the united states of fucking america. Strange as that may seem I admit.

 

[Deepak]

Which is completely irrelevant since the gulf stream does not go into the indian ocean magically

I didn't mean it at first place....:smile:

Anyway New Delhi recorded min temp of 4C yesterday, at this rate we could cross 0C in Jan. Chilly winds outside, though it is sunny, still it feels.

 

[K.I.L.E.R]

Woohoo!
Global warming finally solved.

Now we can go back to dumping ozone into the ocean.