Another psychological stock milestone for ATI

RussSchultz said:
Well then, you must be right.

Who said anything about being right? I said that 6 month cycles in this competitive environment certainly CAN have a negative impact on gross margins.

I'll be sure to tell my CEO that 35% gross margin is fantastic.

While you're at it, ask him if beating the most optimisitic expectations on the street is a good thing or not.
 
RussSchultz said:
35% GROSS margins isn't stellar, btw.

50-60% is what most fabless semiconductor companies shoot for.
It has nothing to do with being a "fabless semiconductor company" but everything to do with the business model. ATI's business model (listen to the conference calls for a better description) puts a good gross margin at about 35-36%. I believe nvidia aims for similar gross margins.
 
I'm not a business type, but can anyone explain to me why ATI's stock price dropped so much today (CDN$1 so far) in light of the positive results? Did analysts have higher internal expectations that they didn't believe?
 
Mintmaster said:
I'm not a business type, but can anyone explain to me why ATI's stock price dropped so much today (CDN$1 so far) in light of the positive results? Did analysts have higher internal expectations that they didn't believe?
I'm no analyst, but I believe what happened was that people had expected ATI to beat estimates so the stock price went up in advance of that. Now that ATI has posted earnings which were in line with investor's expectations, people are cashing out. If ATI had shown stronger earnings (i.e. better than what investor's were thinking) then the stock price would have gone up some more.

Anyway, this is what I think.
 
I believe the drop is due to ATI's cuatious margin outlook for the future. I haven't listened to the conference call yet, but I believe ATI is forecasting stagnant or slightly lower margins for next quarter. They are forecasting their normal 32-35%, which is below where they are at for Q4.

After some sell-off today, I expect the price to return to the 16's over the next week or two. I'm holding...
 
I agree with Joe on this. I have been watching both nvidia and ATi stock for years now. Ever since ATi stock was hammered years ago now ATi became typically conservative in their guidance. Nvidia however played differently and even at one point suggested that they would have nearly the entire market to themselves by this time. I think it is wise to keep things in perspective and consider ATi has a very high valuation. (price to earnings.) But it still looks like a very good long term investment for a lot of good reasons. This helps keep speculative investment and subsequently stock stays at a higher valuation as a result of the prospects a company in ATi's position has. I think the stock will trade in its current range for the most part with good news giving it some upward movement at times. The same however particularly in the short term could not be said about nvidia at present they are facing I believe significant market share loss.
 
Joe DeFuria said:
I believe the drop is due to ATI's cuatious margin outlook for the future.

You are correct. Can't post the link because it from my account but it says:


Adjusted earnings, which exclude goodwill amortization and other items, were $29 million, or 12 cents per share, compared with a loss of $100,000, or nil cents per share, the year before.

Revenue surged 71 percent to $380.7 million, topping ATI's own forecast, on strong demand from notebook computer and mobile phone makers.

Twenty-four analysts surveyed by Reuters Research, a unit of Reuters Group Plc, had expected, on average, adjusted earnings per share of 10 cents. Nineteen analysts had forecast, on average, revenue of $362.9 million.

But ATI shares fell, a move analysts attributed to concerns about the company's guidance. The stock reached its highest level since March 2002 on Thursday, and had tripled in value since the start of the year.


ATI shares closed down 99 cents, or more than 6 percent, at $15.29 on Nasdaq with more than 10.6 million shares traded. In Toronto, the stock fell C$1.43 to C$20.56 on volume of 3.7 million.

"There's a lot of concern around where gross margins will land in the next couple of quarters. The company alluded to seeing some pricing pressure in the marketplace and new products having margins that are lower than the corporate average," said Deepak Chopra, an analyst with National Bank Financial in Toronto.

"That's where you're seeing the stock take its hit today...the revenue guidance was good."

So ATI did extremely well this quarter exceeding expectations but it fell $1.43 CDN.
 
Yeah the 9100 IGP will take some of their notebook margins down even cutting into their own market share with it rather then the higher margin mobile parts. What they need to do with the 9100 IGP is to do volume shipments. Also they are using the low-k process for the 9600XT.(should be slightly more expensive.) But I think that they are also going to start moving into the lower end DX9 market with a withered 9600 part and so lower margins on low end DX9 parts of course. Overall though as far as PC graphics are concerned I believe the 9100 IGP will have low margins. I don't know much about their margins on Imageon or their set-top box parts ether. The question is if they can get their low end/low margin parts to ship in volume or not.
 
Fred da Roza said:
So ATI did extremely well this quarter exceeding expectations but it fell $1.43 CDN.

It's kinda funny...the only expectation they did not exceed...is the expection on their expectations for the future. ;)
 
Well, when you give an advance warning that your margins will be falling on new products...

I guess they're not expecting their step to .11u to be an easy one. (Or .13u aren't as good as they had said)
 
RussSchultz said:
Well, when you give an advance warning that your margins will be falling on new products...

I guess they're not expecting their step to .11u to be an easy one. (Or .13u aren't as good as they had said)

I haven't heard their conference call yet...but there is increased competition in the lower end, you know. XGI does have a few design wins, and that can be putting pressure on prices.

IGP 9100 will probably start shipping in high volume, as will be the imageon. (I think there's a major cell phone ramp up this quarter.) These are both likely to be fairly low margin / high volume parts. I don't think the decreased margins say anything about 0.11 or 0.13 transitions...
 
Their margin range they were shooting for was 32%-35% and this Q they exceeded that. 110nm isn't going to be any kind of issue for next Q, or for the next 3 I should imagine. The reason they cite slightly falling margins is because they are focussing on increasing market share - part of that they expect to happen via 9100 IGP, and in this market they are dealing with the very price competetive Intel. So, basically it amounts to trimming off a little margin (but still withing their expected range) through the IGP products and increasing market share.
 
I think one thing you all are forgetting is that company turnarounds can take years to accomplish as the organization effects change. ATI is still in the midst of a turnaround. We've seen 2 consecutive quarters with a net profit since the 8500 debacle in 2001... which representated what folks @ INTC would call a strategic inflection point. Fortunately the gang chose wisely.

You can quote margins until the cows come home... the important issue is that the numbers have been improrving for the past few quarters... in an increasing manner.

I didn't look but I would assume that overall sector performance would also be responsible for the decrease in stock price.
 
tazdevl said:
which representated what folks @ INTC would call a strategic inflection point.
Is a "strategic inflection point" kind of like a "jump the shark" moment but you recover before you tailspin?
 
tazdevl said:
I didn't look but I would assume that overall sector performance would also be responsible for the decrease in stock price.

The NASDAQ was up considerably on Friday. The category "computer peripherals" (which yahoo groups ATYT) was up 3.6% on friday. "semiconductors" was up 4.1%. Its direct competitor (NVDA) was up 2.63%.

Down was not the overall sector trend on Friday.
 
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