"Analysts: Nintendo facing its biggest challenge"
- Thread starter Wunderchu
- Start date
GHost said:
Does it really matter?
I mean whether it's second or third, it's gonna be by a difference of a very few units (around 1-2 millions)... So why get all worked up with silly secon-third-place discussions? jeeeez
no need for the 
hun...
It's a case of correlation without causation...
The fact that it is second (if it is ) doesn't mean that Nint have no one to catch up, it doesn't mean they are not in trouble, and it doesn't mean they do not need to improve their performance.
Being second doesn't give anyone all-areas-pass...
That's all...
EDIT: Of course the same is true for all competitors. Even Sony. The fact that they slaughtered the competition this time round doesn't mean they can just sit on their asses (which is something they they aren't doing BTW thank god) and wait till the next gen. It doesn't mean they have no room for improvement etc....
hun...It's a case of correlation without causation...
The fact that it is second (if it is
) doesn't mean that Nint have no one to catch up, it doesn't mean they are not in trouble, and it doesn't mean they do not need to improve their performance.Being second doesn't give anyone all-areas-pass...
That's all...
EDIT: Of course the same is true for all competitors. Even Sony. The fact that they slaughtered the competition this time round doesn't mean they can just sit on their asses (which is something they they aren't doing BTW thank god) and wait till the next gen. It doesn't mean they have no room for improvement etc....
Meh this is someone's opinion. Remember that's what these guys are paid for. It must be nice. He's right about a couple of things but the GCN is 2nd worldwide and will end up that way period. People really need to get over it. The GCN is'nt gettting 'owned' by XB in monthly sales anywhere anymore. Maybe in Australia where the big N is nonexistant afa marketing. But the numbers there are so small that it does'nt matter down there. Hell I'll bet the sales for consoles in Alabama alone match up to Australia's. It's close in the US now. Even before the price cut the GCN was still showing the only + in sales over 2002.
Europe is still close as a whole (excluding UK). MS has failed horrible in Japan. Don't hear the analysts discuss that much. GCN will have a great Christmas. I don't see GCN catching up to XB in the US but I do see them closing the gap a few hundred thousand units before this gen is over. I see the XB 2nd in US and 3rd worldwide after the dust settles this gen. I really like how the GCN is trending as is the GBA SP. On a side note the GBA WILL catch the PS2 after this Christmas i'm predicting. Not only in the US but worldwide. It may take till around the later part of the 1st quarter of 2004 but it's gonna happen. I hope Nintendo makes a big to do when it does. Here's a quote from another article that's interesting:
Europe is still close as a whole (excluding UK). MS has failed horrible in Japan. Don't hear the analysts discuss that much. GCN will have a great Christmas. I don't see GCN catching up to XB in the US but I do see them closing the gap a few hundred thousand units before this gen is over. I see the XB 2nd in US and 3rd worldwide after the dust settles this gen. I really like how the GCN is trending as is the GBA SP. On a side note the GBA WILL catch the PS2 after this Christmas i'm predicting. Not only in the US but worldwide. It may take till around the later part of the 1st quarter of 2004 but it's gonna happen. I hope Nintendo makes a big to do when it does. Here's a quote from another article that's interesting:
Nah, I don't think so. There's been a temporary surge because of the price drop, but this will not last. And although Gamecube will of course continue to lead in Japan, as Xbox continues its North American and to a lesser extent European superiority over Cube, by the end of the generation Xbox WILL be number two. Japan is the smallest market of the three, by far.
My 2 cents
GHost said:
could be: [pick one]
1- The data is wrong in your opinion, but maybe it's different data from the one available to them
2- It's an outdated report, therefore using outdated data
3- It's american, made by an unreliable analyst who just wants to put Japanese products in a bad light in favour of American products
4- Other...
IMO the reason most analysts see a sony-ms-nintendo ranking is because they see consoles as the (more or less subsidized) content delivery vehicles they are. I.E. Money is earend through software sales (and this is where MS probably pulled ahead (of Nintendo) this year) and thus, these are the numbers that count (to Analysts and Investors at least), so whether MS or Nintendo will, in the end, be ahead by a hundred thousand units won't matter. This also implied because price cuts on hardware show somewhat vanishing returns after a certain hw pricepoint is reached, as statisticaly a 99$ buyer (e.g. someone, who thought 150$ was too much for the device) will probably spend significantly less for software then say a 199$ first-year buyer (true for all consoles imho). This e.g. is also the reason why the PS1 market did never generate as much revenue for sony as the PS2 market does now (something said analyst also commented upon in the article).
GHost said:
To be honest, no, i do not have an opinion on this because i don't have time to form one.
If i find the time to read economics reports on Nint and MS and then think about it and form an opinion of my own, considering the report could be wrong, i might then realize it was all a waste of time, and feel very frustrated...
so there....
As i said before, economics threads and discussions do not belong to this forum. And i have spent a lot of my time trying to explain economics theory to some people around here jsut to see it all deleted/locked. U see where i'm getting to...
okay, this is something I just don't get:
You have an analyst speak what is obviously his take of Nintendo at the moment, and immediately, we have guys questioning if Nintendo is 2nd or last - does it matter? His point wasn't which consoler maker sold more units up to date - it's about Nintendo's situation facing two very big competitors, hence their 'biggest challenge'.
And I agree, though I see their biggest challenge being an internal one in which Nintendo has to finally make that step in which they are willing to reach massmarket appeal again. Get those 3rd party developers and definately those exclusives. Change the image and make it more attractive for casual gamers. And most importantly, with PS3 and Xbox2 likely to support all those connectivity features and 'home entertainment' features, Nintendo better get something as attractive in their system. As I see things, they have the money - it's really up to them.
You have an analyst speak what is obviously his take of Nintendo at the moment, and immediately, we have guys questioning if Nintendo is 2nd or last - does it matter? His point wasn't which consoler maker sold more units up to date - it's about Nintendo's situation facing two very big competitors, hence their 'biggest challenge'.
And I agree, though I see their biggest challenge being an internal one in which Nintendo has to finally make that step in which they are willing to reach massmarket appeal again. Get those 3rd party developers and definately those exclusives. Change the image and make it more attractive for casual gamers. And most importantly, with PS3 and Xbox2 likely to support all those connectivity features and 'home entertainment' features, Nintendo better get something as attractive in their system. As I see things, they have the money - it's really up to them.
Phil said:
HARDLY
Surely the reason why its important is obvious? The last numbers we saw for all territories (before the GC price cut) showed GC ahead by around 500,000 worldwide. If this analyst somehow thinks XBox is ahead despite those numbers then he either doesn't know what he's talking about or he's biased towards XBox. You don't think that matters?
To be clear I haven't even read the interview and so I have no opinion on wether he is right or wrong.
Erm what?, Nintendo have over 7 billion to spread around if they want too! You think that's not enough money to attract third parties, get third party exclusives and make a console with all the home entertainment features that may find there way into PS3 and XBox2? Even XBox (with its off the shelf parts) won't lose MS more then a couple of billion.
So I suppose if you think Nintendo doesn't have the money to do that then you also think Sony don't either right?
Teasy said:
JESUS what is it today? Anniversary of National Defensiveness??
SORRY PLEASE accept my apologies Teasy, all i meant is that in the end, as much as they have, they will never have as much money to throw around as Sony and especially MS have. That's all...
And to stay on-topic. I find the whole "arguing for 500,000 units" thing complete and utter puke. In a market as big as this, 500,000 units is NOTHING, that is why i initially stated that arguing who is 2nd and who is 3rd is pretty useless.
But if doing that makes you feel better, go for it, i'm out of here
Ozymandis said:
"By far"? They also have 3+ times less population, with sales numbers that don't reflect that. They have a higher consumption rate on both games and hardware, and their companies carry an inordinate amount of influence on the global market in this sector. It's rather amusing how some attempt to gloss over the market because it can't keep up on a strict sales comparison with, oh, say the REST OF THE WORLD.
As per the Microsoft/Nintendo sub-race, the GameCube has increased a lot of ground in all the markets thus far, and has held on better than people were predicting. We'll see how holiday numbers stack up--as everyone will be getting a boost--and the fallout from that, but considering most sources believe us to have hit the apex of console sales for the time being, with saturation and preparation for the next generation taking down overall numbers for the next few years, I don't think Nintendo nor Microsoft has the ability to "blow out" the other short of the Illuminati retasking their orbital mind control satellites.
Strict sales numbers will likely be under contention all the way to "the end" (whatever people define that to be--as it has the capacity to continue through much of next generation as well, depending on how each chooses to handle it. The original PS is STILL a strong seller in North America.) Of course from a profitability perspective, there's no QUESTION who wins that race.
Certainly there are no forgone conclusions, and no numbers "easy to read." Anyone can still throw their sales numbers up into a tizzy with a large enough price drop, so basically it just depends what anyone does. He have years yet.
gamecube price cut is seen as a problematic thing, but xbox growing losses don't seem negative at all to him ?
anyway i wouldn't bother too much with what analysts can say.. when you have a marketing budget it is so easy to buy some "analyst" "study".. if you pay enough you just have to give them the conclusions they'll write the remaining..
