Or it will be like OpenGL on top of Glide, as a comparison for 3dfx nutjobs : you had many OpenGL implementations, sitting either on glide2x (miniGL, early wickedGL) or glide3x (later wickedGL, 3dfx ICD, MesaFX)
A very emasculated version of OGL on top of Glide. Nvidia would hope to not follow that path if they want to succeed.
On top of that, if it follows in Glide's footsteps, as soon as OpenCL or the DX equivalent becomes as powerful or more powerful, then why in the world would any programmer use it?
Also isn't CUDA a higher language than CAL? In other words, CAL is a low level language and thus isn't very similar to OpenCL which is a high level language. Meanwhile CUDA and OpenCL are basically similar in that they make things easier for the programmer by not having to worry about the low level stuff for direct interaction with the hardware. So if CUDA is (at least at the moment) tied to one vendors hardware, while OpenCL is not tied to one vendors hardware, then...
Why would a programmer bother to program in both CUDA and OpenCL when you would presumably be able to do everything in OpenCL and thus not have to have two different code paths?
That's why Glide died. It was basically the same as OpenGL (although more limited) and later Direct3D. Except OpenGL and Direct3D weren't tied to any one vendor's hardware. And neither were they controlled by any one hardware vendor.
I just have a hard time seeing CUDA survive in the consumer space if it remains limited to one vendor.
I can, however, see it surviving quite well in the HPC market where you have high priced applications developed for a very limited number of customers. Customers who presumably have the hardware...and then have the software developed for it.
Regards,
SB