I think there’s a huge disconnect between what you think the average user should be able to spot and what they actually spot. Linus tech tips did a video on this a few years ago and the users struggled to notice the difference in games. Their experiment was flawed in the sense that the people they used were often around people who discuss graphic intricacies and even then the users struggled. You can sample other forums and discussion spaces where you might come across less informed users. The sentiment you find there is not in favour of RT.
Again, it's not a question of being "informed". That's the entire point of my argument. It's a question of whether your brain subconsciously notices the difference, and is able to present that to you, as something looking not quite realistic. You can know nothing about game technology or even games and still be highly sensitive to the artifacts produced current lighting techniques. There is even an example given in this thread of this.
I watched the Linus video and in Tomb Raider the participants were looking for differences that weren't there, since the title only has RT shadows. In Minecraft RTX the girl (Nicole?) was saying that one version looked more artificial but she wasn't sure if that was intended or not, which makes sense in for cartoon-like title. And I didn't see any footage of Wolfenstein: Youngblood to know what was shown or how the participants reacted to it.
I agree that depending on how a technique is used, its contribution to how realistic a scene looks might be small. The contribution of slightly more precise shadows in Tomb Raider is likely to be minor. If select surfaces are reflective in an urban environment, you might not perceive their contribution. (You could make the same argument about volumetric lighting or particle effects, or any technique that contributes towards the realism of a scene.) I don't think it follows from this however, that
no improvement in the quality of lighting is going to be perceptible. I would like to see the Linus experiment re-run with Spider-Man, Cyberpunk RT/PT and Indiana Jones PT.
In the console space, 75% of games use performance mode and for most games on consoles, that means no RT.
As an aside, I often wonder if people on here just pigeonhole themselves into highly technical forums like this one or if they wander out into less technical spaces. Sometimes I think you can get an hint based on the things that are prioritized.
The thing about graphics in general is that it’s inferior to gameplay, design, mechanics in every single way. It cannot hold your attention for long and often fades into the background. The most played games are not necessarily the ones that have the best graphics and you can see this by looking at Steam’s most played games.
That's why Spider-Man is the perfect example, because it has a performance RT mode. And as for graphics being "inferior", I think they should not be considered in competition with gameplay and design, but precisely as a tool for defining the gameplay and narrative space. When Valve invested so much time in getting character rendering to look right with Half-Life 2, they did it so you could feel like Alyx was a real person fighting alongside you, not because of some abstract love for "good graphics". Equally, I think the GTA 6 trailer is so compelling because of the consistency of world building that Rockstar can achieve through their crazy investment in environmental detail. The promise of that game is not "better graphics", but being able to explore a modern day rendition of Vice City.