Small business hiring plans rise
- Thread starter Joe DeFuria
- Start date
pax said:With the measly 1000 new jobs last month after that 8% rise in gdp they BETTER start to hire ;P... Cripes Canada added 53 000 all by itself in dec... Dont make me come down there!!!
The main problems are that in many industries there is still a lot of capacity overhang, as well as the fact that since productivity is rising rapidly, the pressure to add workers is lessened because you can continue to get more profits out of the same workers by maximizing your use of technology, depending on the sector.
GDP rose at 8%, but productivity rose at 7%-9%. I don't remember the figure exactly, but it was between 7% and 9%. A lot has to happen before workers are hired. We've been chomping at the bit to hire more workers at my company, but there are a few pressures to not do that. One, the work in our industry is still not coming in at a steady rate. Two, we're taking on more work and getting it done in the same amount of time, or less, because we've built or are building a good many tools that minimize the time we have to spend on a project, thus improving how much work we can do in an 8 hour day. That improves our profits tremendously.
For example, I did a productivity measurement from our 2002 fiscal year to our 2003 fiscal year. My productivity increased 13% year over year, while the company as a whole saw an average annual increase of 9%.
With those numbers, it's hard to hire more workers because we're unsure whether the work levels we've got will continue, and it's hard because we're all reaping the benefits from it directly. It is certainly a bind we and the rest of the nation are in.
A big economy like the US, takes a while to get back on course. A good analogy would be that the US economy is like the a big aircraft carrier, while canada a smaller ship. It takes a bit longer for job creation to catchup to all the other positive factors/news weve gotten.pax said:With the measly 1000 new jobs last month after that 8% rise in gdp they BETTER start to hire ;P... Cripes Canada added 53 000 all by itself in dec... Dont make me come down there!!!
Thats why im apprehansive to lay blame/praise to presidents when it comes to the economy. The sour economy Bush inherited or the fantastic one Clinton got, was just timing and not anything either really did.
later,
epic
Its exactly the kind of thing Im worried about. An economy where you see a combination of situations that sheds workers even as productivity and profits rise. If this kind of thing happens too quickly and society doesnt follow suit to take care of those left behind as we march ever faster towards a workless society and\or towards a lower wage society then disparities can also increase rapidly making stable outcomes for society less and less likely.
Sustainability I guess is my key worry.
Sustainability I guess is my key worry.
I think we still need to give this economy another 6 months before we start worrying about a jobless recovery. Give it a bit of time, we just started getting the good news, what, 3 months ago. Lets see what happens in 2 or 3 months.
later,
epic
later,
epic
Technically epicstruggle, the economy has been out of the recession since 2001. We've been in a jobless recovery for a little over 2 years. That's why so many economists are concerned over what has happened. Frankly this recovery is something the US has never experienced before. We're in uncharted waters.
Ive seen that explained on neil cavuto and moneyline. Technically the recession ended in 2001. But only technically most economists on those shows say it ended much later.Natoma said:
Whatever the truth maybe, the recovery/growth is happening now. If in the next few months we dont have many hundreds of jobs added, then ill agree and say we might be in some trouble. Until then, lets chill out, buy some beers (pepsi for me) and go shopping.
later,
epic
Silent_One
Newcomer
One of the issues to keep in mind is the fact that were now in winter. In the heavy construction industry, here in the Northeast, and probably the northern half of the rest of the country as well, saesonal lay-off of construction workers happens every year. By the end of November, early December, the asphalt plants close, concrete plants produce little, and the construction projects are shut down. It's just too cold. Tens of thousands go on unemployment. In the spring the cycle starts again, as the projects start up and hiring begins again.
Now in some States, like Connecticut, the heavy construction industry is in jjeopardy because the US Congress has yet to pass TEA-21, the Transportation Funding Bill, which alocates the Federal funds the States need to plan and let work out to bid. The last time the Act was up for vote it was defeated and a 5 month extention of the Bill was passed, at it's previous funding level (which expires at the end of Feb). Problem is some States yearly budgets can't work on 5 month schedules. As a result, ALL future work is shelved untill resolution of the issue. This effectivly means no new work shall start in Connecticut untill late summer, at best.
So we will see some inprovements in unemployment in the spring, but it could be a LOT betterif this one issue is resolved.
Hopefully nobody uses that bill as a political means of keeping folks unemployed until the election.
Maybe some Pork Barrel provision was attached to that bill Silent_One? That's usually the fastest way to keep something from passing. Because in and of itself, I don't see how morally or politically anyone could stop that bill from going through in order to get people back to work.
Silent_One
Newcomer
What seems to have happened at the time the original bill came up for reauthorization was that the Bush Administration wanted to hold spending and costs to $29 billion. The previous bill was $31+ billion. Understand this is a 6 year funding bill. The compromise was funding for 1 year at the previous level. At the end of 1 year (Sept. 2003) the Bill was further extended another 5 months. Connecticut got by with the first extention since, by State law, 1 year of funding form the Fed's is needed to authorise the State's portion of funding, but the last 5 month extention only allows the State to fund existing projects on a month-to-month basis. So no new projects (jobs) in sight.
Is there "Pork Barrel provisions"? Sure. The amount of money were talking about is huge, and there are lots of waste, as usual. What sees to have happened this time around, however, is that the States are arguing amongst themselves as to the allocation of the money. Some sates want a better return for the tax dollar they send to Washington (Northeast typicaly gets over a dollar for every dollar sent to Washington, Midwest gets less). The States are fighting. And Bush tried to hold the line and actually wanted to cut spending
Result? gridlock, delays, postponement. A shame too because this will delay economic recovery. For every billion dollars spend on roads about 48,000 job are createdWhere did you get those numbers? Seems quite likely just wanted to see source. BTW i agree that construction is by far one of the fastest way to create jobs. Im suprised we have spent more on road works, and other public structures.Silent_One said:
later,
epic
Silent_One
Newcomer
http://www.artba.org/pdf/TMAW_Economy.pdf
Actually the sorce says about 47,500 jobs created for each $1 billion
Additionally, the cost I mentioned of $29-32 billion had to do with the local region, and for roadbulilding only, not mass transit or other transportation projects. The overall cost amounts to a $375 billion dollar Bill!!
http://www.artba.org/tmaw/index.htm
Incidently, this morning I'm off to a "Transportation Lunchon" on the status of the transportation bill, TEA-21, sponsored by the Connecticut Road Builders Association and local unions (carpenters, operating engineers, & laborers). At the meeting, held in Meriden, Ct., we will meet with Connecticut's Congressmen & Congresswomen (Larson, Simmons, DeLauro, Shays, Johnson) to discuss the outlook for congressional action of the Bill, and implications of any extentions of the Bill.