Post-E3 Software outlook

[liolio]

title says it all

 

[DJ12]

Game of the show, Uncharted 2, nowhere to be seen.

Not much of an indicator then.

 

[deepbrown]

Link to source?

 

[liolio]

The source is gameplan
Some others datas:
http://www.gameblog.fr/jeu_3598_forza-motorsport-3FM3 (53th), Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (61th), MetroÏd Other M(70th), MAG (86th), http://www.gameblog.fr/jeu_2007_heavy-rainHeavy Rain (91th), et http://www.gameblog.fr/jeu_337_alan-wakeAlan Wake (115th).

Some titles are in need for a marketing push.
Between this data are for US obviously

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What exactly are they measuring to get the positions? Preorders, or 'internet chatter'?

 

[liolio]

The article where I find those data speak about another study pretty much in line with that one:

institut Nielsen. Auprès de son panel de sondés, interrogé entre le 7 et le 14 Juin, l'institut a en effet recueilli le top 5 d'intention d'achats suivant : Halo : ODST (53% vont "l'acheter à coup sûr, ou très probablement"), God of War III (49%), http://www.gameblog.fr/jeu_3732_wii-sports-resortWii Sport Resort (45%), Guitar Heroe 5 (42%), Final Fantasy XIII (37%).

No need to translate percentage are self explanatory as well as game titles. the source is Nielsen institute.
If you add GH5 buying intend value from gameplan for the wii the 360 and the ps3 you find the same "winners".

 

[liolio]

What exactly are they measuring to get the positions? Preorders, or 'internet chatter'?

Nope it's based on a survey/poll on a panel of 2000 supposedly (as for any marketing study they can only do their best in this regard) representative american gamers.
Between the article doesn't state how many people were "used" in the Nielsen poll/survey.

 

[onanie]

I second ShiftyGeezer's concerns. What were they measuring exactly? What population did they use for their study?

Lego universe had higher awareness and purchasing index than Uncharted 2?

The second study you quoted did not produce similar results, really. The difference between Halo (53%) and GOWIII (49%) was much less than what the first study (which you obviously preferred) showed.

 

[liolio]

I searched and found some non french sources for these reports:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=23846
http://www.otxresearch.com/documents/News/2009//06-01-09_GamasutraGamePlan.pdf
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24167
Older story about Gameplan / otx gaming insight (looks like they are related):
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=23400

 

[liolio]

I second ShiftyGeezer's concerns. What were they measuring exactly? What population did they use for their study?

Lego universe had higher awareness and purchasing index than Uncharted 2?

The second study you quoted did not produce similar results, really. The difference between Halo (53%) and GOWIII (49%) was much less than what the first study (which you obviously preferred) showed.

I actually showed the data the same way I read them on this french site here
the second datas are at the end of the article and with less details accessible and on top of it no lovely chart. Between I don't bother that much for Halo as I still have to buy one Halo game (it's likely that I will buy the third for my 360 but I've a lot of games on my shopping list...).
EDIT
I've been a bit too kind in my response as I'm such a biaised person that I forgot to remove really poor Forza3 and completely awful alan wake results in my quote... So from now ignore as I will do ...

 

[patsu]

Traditionally, cross platform titles sold better because of the larger base -- especially on the PS3, but this phenomenon doesn't come across strongly in this study. It could mean that the 1000 - 2000 gamers they surveyed are not representative. It's hard to get the right proportion for Wii gamers vs 360/PS3 gamers though (How do they divide the population ? by visits to the stores ? Which stores ?).

EDIT: Actually, if the analysts don't double check their result against known trend and at least explain the discrepancy, then we should probably give them more time to refine their techniques.

 

[liolio]

Traditionally, cross platform titles sold better because of the larger base -- especially on the PS3, but this phenomenon doesn't come across strongly in this study. It could mean that the 1000 - 2000 gamers they surveyed are not representative. It's hard to get the right proportion for Wii gamers vs 360/PS3 gamers though (How do they divide the population ? by visits to the stores ? Which stores ?).

EDIT: Actually, if the analysts don't double check their result against known trend and at least explain the discrepancy, then we should probably give them more time to refine their techniques.

Actually if you're speaking about the difference about Nielsen institute and gameplan it will be difficult to discuss as the news I read gives no references for the Nielsen study (outside that it's a really serious institute). And When I say no references it's no references, we don't even know if they consider Us. north america or the whole world. Gameplan is obviously US/North america by looking at madden figures. I may search to find out from where the Nielsen figures have been leaked, may be we will have better informations.
I don't agree in regard to discrepancy, if you look at gameplan figures moder warfare 2 is actually in second position (432 on 360 / 245 on ps3). I don't bother checking other titles but GH5 is hight in the chart if you add Wii, ps3 and 360 .

Out side of this basically having a representative is the basic of a marketing study/survey, it's not easy I think it's even the toughest part of the job. But I would not say that it's impossible or that video games are tougher than some others sectors. I don't get why they would focus their analysis on "gamer" the panel could be made as any panel which is a blend of various family (different ages for parents/kids/numbers of kids/revenues), young adults. Then there is how they ponder the results from the people from their panel. They coud even use a pretty standard panel representative of north america society and the mystic could be in how they ponder their results.
My guess is that 2000 is not enough for a country as US or North america thus they must use a custom panel and then ponder their results. Anyway if they think that their estimations have any value they won't public state how they do their in-house sauce.
But clearly while making the panel I can't see them focus on gamers, the point is to have something representative of the society thus is come down to calling a lot of people (more than 2000) and ask them if they want to be part of the "poll/survey" then ask random questions about family situation, revenues, interests, etc. not focus on gamers (which may not be representative their are a part of the market) if I were to do it I would not even focus on video game at first.
Then you sort the result, do your magic pondering and you come with a panel of 2000 persons.
Between 2000 persons can be missleading as a family of four can't be count as four as depending of the kiddies ages (it's mom or dad who have the buying power) or if teenagers have some buying power.
Basically then you call/e-mail back, you accepted a while ago, blablba, a survey, doing a study about video games I've a list blabla, please send me back the result.
Basically once kids/teen have answered with daddy, teens with money, young adults/adults have answered too you must ave something like what they call "awareness index" lol: can help it but I always think of Jean Claude Vandamne when I read aware... such a freak...), I understand it as the raw result of the survey.
It looks like they have info about preorders (may be not taken from the survey) I guess is that it's use to fine tune/ponder the raw result.
Then the final result comes form the result of the first contact with the people (where you learn about revenues, numbers of kids, how money in gifts, etc. etc.)
Then you ponder the awareness about the product with the various economical factors you managed to gathers about the people.
It's basically marketing 1o1, but it's a lot of work to make the panel properly (most of the work)

 

[patsu]

Although the gaming population has diversified, it's deeply divided population. I am not sure when they rank the numbers, who exactly they are talking to/about. I think many people would be skeptical of the result because the different pockets of people have different taste. Even if they go through the process of collecting the feedback, I feel it's the selection process and the interpretation that will likely to go wrong.

The end result may be the numbers don't apply to anyone at all. It's just a (fictitious) mathematical result by averaging apples and oranges.

I actually like this first step since it has some mathematical foundation compared to Internet's monthly sales threads, which are usually all over the place. The industry will need both personal experiences/hunches and mathematical tools to guide them. But I also think that they need to do a lot more work to clean up their methods. Otherwise, they sound like the usual guesswork we have already seen (by other analysts even).

 

[liolio]

I don't reall understand your comment it's a survey on buying intend it's like for elections, it's not perfectely accurate but you can have pretty clear pictures (thus it's a moving target situation can change as release date get closer).

But it's nothing new there are poll/survey for years in various domain, it's not that tough.
The real tough part is make a survey about what people would want, the survey may give you pretty accurate description of what people want, you do your product accordingly and the product can bomb/ not work even if it somehow answers people wiches. This is tough going from a study and actually hit your goal. This is only about tracking people opinion about existing product (even if it's more in this case perception of a product).

And I see the chart as pretty relevant my self, I just see 5 bad news which are the agme I listed earlier (out of chart):
FM3 (53th), Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (61th), MetroÏd Other M(70th), MAG (86th), Heavy Rain (91th), et Alan Wake (115th).
I would focus on the tow first as others are more distant releases but the look of it they will have to climb a tough mountain...

 

[Zassk]

The fact that Uncharted and Forza are both past 50th place makes the whole list suspect, IMO.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Although the gaming population has diversified, it's deeply divided population. I am not sure when they rank the numbers, who exactly they are talking to/about. I think many people would be skeptical of the result because the different pockets of people have different taste. Even if they go through the process of collecting the feedback, I feel it's the selection process and the interpretation that will likely to go wrong.

If they do their job properly, it should be a representative cross-section of the incredibly broad gaming populace. That'll include people who play Wii Sports to exclusion and WOW nuts and hardcore gamers with Gamerscores larger than many western national debts. I wouldn't expect the results to tally particularly well with the 'gaming community' as we know it, although the top titles are certainly well known brands.

That said, the results look kinda screwy XB360 has a far higher prominence than Wii despite being a smaller market. I'd need to know what exactly the various Index's represent to have confidence the figures are a worthwhile reference point for future purchases.

 

[liolio]

Actually it would be interestng tohave more titles in the chart to see how the "intend purchse index" goes down (quick or not). It would be interesting because if a lot of product are close it can come to "impulsive buying" . Say one was wandering about getting a game considering various titles, remember an ads while doing shopping and hop one pretty random sale. This kind of behaviours can be more relevant if the product is not "hot" the buyer is not enthousiastic and makes a last minute decision on something not that important to him.

In regard to the Wii it may work as I states above (for most not "hot" games say not a big N game or succesfull party game). Wii has quiet some millions sellers which include known IP ut they never really show in the top 20 NPD chart. It could that a bunch of Wii owners once they have their most wanted product (say wii fit/play/sport/mario/whatever) are let with a lot a games more tedious to them and no real intensive to buy game, they may pick up randomly some games they were considering tiedously. Say Halo OSD MW2 are around 800 which mean that people will jump on the product lot of wii game could be around 100 say people not that concerned by video games but will randomly pick one of the wish list. It could comes down to buying behaviours, Wii games may have legs by the very nature of a lot of the owners.

 

[assen]

The fact that Uncharted and Forza are both past 50th place makes the whole list suspect, IMO.

No, it should make the marketing teams responsible for Uncharted and Forza twitchy, nervous, and reach for the bottle of amphetamine pills.

 

[Rangers]

Game of the show, Uncharted 2, nowhere to be seen.

Not much of an indicator then.

Game of the show to some of the hardcore, maybe.

I dont think Uncharted 2 is just going to sell gangbusters. No question in my mind it wont. It'll sell nicely enough, but it's not a hardware mover. It's in the wrong genre for one.

I think the list, minus some puzzling exceptions, serves to reinforce a good point..the best selling PS360 game this fall will be ODST, even though it's getting not as much attention from the media.

Of course if you carry that logic further, New Super Mario should probably be #1, and God of War 3 should be lower (def below FF13). Again God of War 3 is hyped online and in the media, but I dont think it's going to sell huge (the past GoW titles weren't particularly exceptional sellers, I'm pretty sure). It will probably sell well, but not huge.

 

[Akumajou]

Excellent once halo 3 odst sells 18 million copies this will give MS the green light to make their rumored next gen leap to their Dx11 console.

As much as I love heavy rain as a first day buy or Last Guardian, I can't help but think that the general hype machine is just going to ignore them and ridicule them in ways beyond Uncharted 1, Heavenly Sword, Valrkyria Chronicles, etc...