NVIDIA: New 90nm GF7s by January, Next-Gen in H1 2006, plus RSX NREs until mid-Q1.

[Arun]

Title says it all, there are a bunch of other points in the conference call but nothing that should surprise most people here. So yes, NVIDIA is in a good posiition to actually release new parts before ATI.

Interestingly enough, NVIDIA said the low/mid-end GF7s will last about 1 to 1.5 years, thus well into Vista's lifecycle. Sounds like NVIDIA decided against an "all at the same time" SM4 launch, after all.

As for Sony, they expect NREs (Non-Recurring Expenses) to stop around mid/late-Q1, and then their licesing revenue will depend on how fast Sony decides to ramp up the PS3 production. Nothing in the presentation could IMO tell us whether the RSX has taped-out or not. Considering the timeframes he gave, it looks to me it will shortly, and will then be given one revision. But that's just my personal interpretaiton of the facts.

Anyhow, presentation link is: http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=17940&s=21&k=43BEFA329850246DF2B9565895E63043


Uttar

 

[nAo]

What's "next gen"? DX10 part?

 

[Mintmaster]

Does "90nm GF7s" mean across the board or just low/mid end parts?

 

[Dave Baumann]

Given the length of time NV43/44 have lasted I think its not much surprise that the G7x low end refreshes would be tasked to last a while. NVIDIA are ATI appear to be on fairly different release paths at the moment, with ATI still refreshing more or less at 6 month intervals (we've only just had the release of RV515, RV530 and we're talking about 80nm refreshes of then with RV560 in there as well, and R520 being replaced by R580), where NVIDIA are presently doing fewer refreshes, and refining them.

 

[Arun]

What's "next gen"? DX10 part?

Yep, he said it would be the future "technology foundation" of the company iirc, and I doubt they'll keep a DX9 tech in the high-end for the next 2 years

Uttar

 

[Geo]

Would I be justified in reading "H1" as "Q2"? I think I owe ninelven some rep then. . .

 

[Xenus]

That also could mean the RSX is closer to their next gen part than previously thought.

 

[Rys]

Nothing in the presentation could IMO tell us whether the RSX has taped-out or not. Considering the timeframes he gave, it looks to me it will shortly, and will then be given one revision. But that's just my personal interpretaiton of the facts.

That jives with a, "yeah, we're done with it now", I heard in fairly recent times. If it's not just about to come back as running silicon, it should do shortly as you say.

 

[Geo]

That also could mean the RSX is closer to their next gen part than previously thought.

You're suggesting that RSX and the 90nm G7x refresh are actually one part with two uses? The much-rumored 8-quader PC part as well as PS3 engine?

That would square the circle, so to speak. So neat it just gotta be wrong.

 

[Dave Baumann]

From Transcript:

Marv Burkett - Nvidia Corporation - CFO
Like I said the 7's are going to roll out from this point going forward well probably into January and the key there is just getting into production for the spring refresh which starts to build next February. Beyond that, the team is working very hard on our next brand new GPU. We have not disclosed any details on that but that one is really aligned for first half next year and that will be the beginning of the next new architecture for the company.

So the 7's will stick around. If you look at the 7's, they will be around in the midrange and low-end for probably another year, 1.5 years. And then the new GPU will come out at the high end in the first half and go from there. Expect a family of 7 in 90 nanometers to come out from now until probably January.

 

[Geo]

What does beginning of the next new architecture mean, I wonder? That answer seems quite a hash to me, honestly, unless there is further context we're missing. Doesn't even mention process, for instance. . .

Edit: And I can't tell for the life of me whether there is another high-end G7x in 90nm coming in January or not. The first part of the answer says 'no'. The second part of the answer ("family of 7 in 90 nm") suggests 'yes'.

 

[ben6]

Well, beginning of a new architecture would mean presumably: GeForce, GeForce3, GeForce 5800, GeForce 6800 then mid-range and mainstream derivatives of that architecture.

Perhaps that means we'll see 0.09 G70 family beginning of year for "Spring" refresh. Then "G8 whatever" in June. Then gradual replacement of "7600" and "7200" in the following year.

 

[Geo]

Having listened to it now, if he hadn't said "family of G70 in 90nm" at the very end, I would really have to believe there wasn't another high-end part this side of G80 with "a new architecture". Everything else sounded like not and that they were referring to the new GTX512 as being their leadership part between now and G80 (no, he didn't say "G80", but he did say "new architecture").

 

[Geo]

Well, beginning of a new architecture would mean presumably: GeForce, GeForce3, GeForce 5800, GeForce 6800 then mid-range and mainstream derivatives of that architecture.

Perhaps that means we'll see 0.09 G70 family beginning of year for "Spring" refresh. Then "G8 whatever" in June. Then gradual replacement of "7600" and "7200" in the following year.

So are we expecting NV's "G8 whatever" high-end part to be at the beginning of the family or the end? If it is at the beginning, are they abandoning their new found "go low first on a new process" religion, or are we expecting flagship G8/Vista/SM4 to be a 90nm part in 1H 2006? It's got to be one or the other, right? I'm having trouble believing that the flagship G8/Vista/SM4 could be aimed at 90nm, but maybe I'm wrong. . .they certainly got a hell of a lot out of 110nm.

 

[Razor1]

So are we expecting NV's "G8 whatever" high-end part to be at the beginning of the family or the end? If it is at the beginning, are they abandoning their new found "go low first on a new process" religion, or are we expecting flagship G8/Vista/SM4 to be a 90nm part in 1H 2006? It's got to be one or the other, right? I'm having trouble believing that the flagship G8/Vista/SM4 could be aimed at 90nm, but maybe I'm wrong. . .they certainly got a hell of a lot out of 110nm.

I think it will depend on what ATi does with its r580, if they refresh the r520 with it and depending on its performance.

 

[Fodder]

Like I said the 7's are going to roll out from this point going forward well probably into January and the key there is just getting into production for the spring refresh which starts to build next February.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but if the 90nm G7x low/mid-range parts are expected by January and will last 18 months, and the next-gen high-end is due midyear, what's the February spring refresh?

they certainly got a hell of a lot out of 110nm.

And 130nm with the 6800, while ATI did the unthinkable on 150nm. Best not to restrict oneself.

If they launch H1, they'll be up against R580 rather than R600, so performance needn't be ridiculous.

 

[JoshMST]

I think Geo is about to blow a gasket with the all the possibilities that are rattling around his head.

 

[Arun]

Well, I don't know how many quads the RSX has, but I'm quite positive its features will be more based on the G70's 90nm refresh than on the G70's (ex.: HDR AA, iirc).

As for the "spring refresh" references - they're talking that in the respect of OEM refreshing THEIR lineup, not them refreshing their own. So basically, they need to launch before April to have their new productline in the OEMs' designs.

As for the GF7 high-end, I would expect a new 90nm chip for that around mid/late January, with the GF8 appearing around June. That gives a 5-6 months "real high-end" positioning to it, and it could slide in the upper mid-end once the GF8 launches, with still quite reasonable margins.


Uttar

 

[_xxx_]

I'm really curious when we'll see the first leaks about that next-gen whatever-it-should-be-called part. I think it will be a unified design, but a bit different than ATI's approach. Just guessing, of course.

 

[Fodder]

As for the "spring refresh" references - they're talking that in the respect of OEM refreshing THEIR lineup, not them refreshing their own.

Hah, that makes alot more sense now, thanks!