NPD February 2018 Results

R

Rangers

Legend
I looks like, surprisingly, strong hardware estimates already leaked for the month on Resetera

https://www.resetera.com/posts/5749547/

PS4: ~363K (-9% YoY)
XB1: ~310K (+44% YoY)
NSW: ~279K
OTH: ~137K
3DS: ~103K

I'm calling it early, Xbox has basically had 4 strong months since X release, and although only two months in, would, weirdly, be trending towards it's best sales year so far in 2018. It has to be a strong factor (even though we dont actually know how many of the sales are the X). And that's at an extremely high $500...

It's nice to want things, but X1X would have just killed at $399. Sometimes I wonder if something like 8GB RAM+6TF specs+big ugly box+399 would have been a better X1X play...

Honestly I'm not sure. I like my 12GB RAM.

Also Switch obviously looks weak here relatively.


The "media release" is in a day or two I think.

Edit: More data in

https://venturebeat.com/2018/03/20/february-npd-2018-monster-hunter-repeats-as-top-game-in-the-u-s/

  1. Monster Hunter: World
  2. Call of Duty: WWII
  3. NBA 2K18
  4. Dragon Ball: Fighterz
  5. Grand Theft Auto V
  6. Shadow of the Colossus (2018)
  7. UFC 3
  8. Kingdom Come: Deliverance
  9. Mario Kart 8*
  10. Super Mario Odyssey
  11. Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Siege
  12. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  13. PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds**
  14. Bayonetta 2*
  15. Madden NFL 18
  16. Assassin’s Creed: Origins
  17. FIFA 18**
  18. Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet
  19. The Sims 4**
  20. Star Wars: Battlefront II
*No digital sales included
**No PC digital sales included


Not much to note in software sales. PUBG seems mediocre this month. Kingdom Come Deliverance is interesting.
 
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Yes XBX has being a factor, no doubt, but also very aggressive deals and promotions for the base model those few last months.
 
X1X with Gamepass is fantastic for me. The X1X feels like a real jump from last gen. XB1 felt like a 1.5 upgrade.
 
XBX has been slowly dropping off the Amazon Top 100 hourly, it's at #90 now. I would not hold your breath for it to carry the entire brand all year...
 
DrJay24 said:
XBX has been slowly dropping off the Amazon Top 100 hourly, it's at #90 now. I would not hold your breath for it to carry the entire brand all year...
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is still only the ~4th month. I don't expect XB1X to continue this momentum the whole year.

XB1 sales took a sizable hit since the XB1X was announced. I don't think it was solely because of the XB1X, but also partly due to software. But I think XB1X will bring sales back up to where they were before, maybe a bit higher, and XB1 will be competitive with the PS4 in the US again.

XB1 is also riding the success of PUBG and they also had promotions as Glob mentioned. MH:W is also performing very well and is probably helping, too.

Not to take anything away from XB1, it has been performing great in the US. Really all 3 consoles are. Actually surprised the PS4 won, considering it had no promos and it's still selling for the same price as 2016.
 
PUBG did not sell that great this month according to the chart. And that includes digital sales on console....I guess it is revenue based so in units it might be doing significantly better, plus it's only one month of data, maybe it will go back up.

NPD keeps crowing about increased hardware sales and overall sales year over year but it seems obvious that's due to Switch, and so next month we should see drastic drops YoY from Switch's launch month.

Although I guess increased dollars spent are increased dollars spent, regardless how many consoles are in the market.
 
Those are really good hardware numbers for Feb., a traditionally slow month. PS4 had some great releases last Feb. so it being down slightly is no big deal.

Keep in mind that PUBG on NPD is basically a single SKU title as PC numbers aren't reported. It's now over 32 million copies sold on PC. Feb. moved ~1-2 million units on PC. 2 million units alone would likely have made it the #1 or #2 title on NPD. Of course, those aren't all in the US (most were probably from China) and NPD only wants US numbers. Regardless, it'd likely be a few spots higher if PC sales were included.

The only single SKU titles doing better than PUBG? Nintendo titles as expected. PUBG is still selling quite well and likely having an impact on XBO sales.

Bayonetta 2 in the charts is really good for NSW. It continues to show that 3rd party IP can do well on the platform if the game is well made. But then no-one can touch Nintendo in single SKU sales. GTA V may sell more in total, but Legend of Zelda: BOW probably sells more on NSW than GTA V does on any single platform per month. It'd be interesting to see GTA V sales per platform per month launch aligned with Zelda: BOW. Unfortunately never going to happen. Further complicated by GTA V basically having 2 different launches.

Again, no Minecraft. Looks like Minecraft is finally starting to fade in the public consciousness (overtaken by Fortnite on YouTube even due to Fortnite's mobile launch).

Regards,
SB
 
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Silent_Buddha said:
Those are really good hardware numbers for Feb., a traditionally slow month. PS4 had some great releases last Feb. so it being down slightly is no big deal.

Keep in mind that PUBG on NPD is basically a single SKU title as PC numbers aren't reported. It's now over 32 million copies sold on PC. Feb. moved ~1-2 million units on PC. 2 million units alone would likely have made it the #1 or #2 title on NPD. Of course, those aren't all in the US (most were probably from China) and NPD only wants US numbers. Regardless, it'd likely be a few spots higher if PC sales were included.

The only single SKU titles doing better than PUBG? Nintendo titles as expected. PUBG is still selling quite well and likely having an impact on XBO sales.

Bayonetta 2 in the charts is really good for NSW. It continues to show that 3rd party IP can do well on the platform if the game is well made. But then no-one can touch Nintendo in single SKU sales. GTA V may sell more in total, but Legend of Zelda: BOW probably sells more on NSW than GTA V does on any single platform per month. It'd be interesting to see GTA V sales per platform per month launch aligned with Zelda: BOW. Unfortunately never going to happen. Further complicated by GTA V basically having 2 different launches.

Again, no Minecraft. Looks like Minecraft is finally starting to fade in the public consciousness (overtaken by Fortnite on YouTube even due to Fortnite's mobile launch).

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...
Bayonetta 2 is owned and funded by Nintendo. Not really "third party IP"
 
Globalisateur said:
Bayonetta 2 is owned and funded by Nintendo. Not really "third party IP"
Click to expand...

Wait Nintendo bought the Bayonetta franchise from Platinum games? I know they helped fund Bayonetta 2 for exclusivity similar to what MS tried to do with Tomb Raider or what Sony did with Bloodborne.

Checking, and nope, it appears that Platinum games still owns the IP. It's published by Nintendo on their platforms.

So different from Bloodborne (Sony owned IP). Bayonetta 2 is just Nintendo Exclusive due to funding, but IP still owned by Platinum.

Regards,
SB
 
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Silent_Buddha said:
Wait Nintendo bought the Bayonetta franchise from Platinum games? I know they helped fund Bayonetta 2 for exclusivity similar to what MS tried to do with Tomb Raider or what Sony did with Bloodborne.

Checking, and nope, it appears that Platinum games still owns the IP. It's published by Nintendo on their platforms.

So different from Bloodborne (Sony owned IP). Bayonetta 2 is just Nintendo Exclusive due to funding, but IP still owned by Platinum.

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...
Yes but Nintendo owns all publishing rights of B2 (and soon B3). Bayonneta can only be on another platform if Nintendo agrees. According to the devs explanation, asking Bayonneta 2 / 3 on another console would be the same as asking if Mario could be ported on another console.

Whether the IP is owned or not by Nintendo doesn't matter in this case cause Bayonneta 2 and 3 will never be published on anything other than Nintendo consoles as long as the japanese company is alive. And Nintendo is the oldest videogame company in the world...

It's a special case but de facto B2 and B3 are Nintendo first party.
 
DrJay24 said:
XBX has been slowly dropping off the Amazon Top 100 hourly, it's at #90 now. I would not hold your breath for it to carry the entire brand all year...
Click to expand...

79 now, vs PS4 Pro at 82 :p

Anyways I've lost a lot of faith on Amazon predicting, although I certainly still look at it and it's a data point. There was one recent holiday month at least it was wrong...whereas at one point it was almost infallible.

One thing I've noticed is stock issues seem near constant and affect SKU positioning a lot. And it's not just on stock vs out of stock, anything being shipped from a 3rd party seller will cause it to drop like a rock. Xbox X as I wrote this is in stock from Amazon.com, thus I'd assume it will be moving up for a while. A lot of times when I check it it can have a shipping delay, be from 3rd party seller, etc etc, and all those cause items to drop. Same can go for any console SKU really. One example I just noticed, checking all the console SKU"s, is the $249 white 500GB Xbox One S, it's "in stock March 26". It's also "Sold by GAMEZLAND and Fulfilled by Amazon." That four day shipping delay+non Amazon seller probably caused it to drop a lot, and it's #80. It appears it's maybe being moved out as there's a disclaimer "there is a newer version of this item". Which is the 299 Sea of Thieves bundle. Which will probably move up the charts for a while (currently not in the top 100 charts). It's also not a direct substitute for the other, being $50 more expensive. Shrug.

The point is all this constant stock and SKU shuffling on Amazon really hurts chart accuracy IMO. You'd need to compare SKU's that are constantly or near constantly in stock,which may be impossible. And even then it's just one slice of the market.

One interesting note while I was looking at the charts is a Sea of Thieves digital code is #30, while the actual disc game is significantly lower, #58. There's no price difference. That's crazy, and suggests a extreme digital split on that title (kind of expected as that type of GAAS game). At least I noticed it's an instant digital code and not a card. I've never ever noticed that happen before. Other than people using up credits or gift cards, I see no reason to buy digitally from Amazon rather than just through your console or PC, so again, the digital split on that title must be extreme! I dunno, 70% digital? Digital is taking over the console market fast.

Anyways we got some info on PS4 pro splits, IIRC first we heard around 15%, then later Sony said it was around one in five PS4's, so 20%. I haven't heard a single thing, not one word, about the Xbox X/Regular Xbox split, to my knowledge. Wish we had anything. Well, we did get some estimates launch month IIRC, but I've already forgotten them.

All I'm looking at is there's been 4 months since XX (heh) got released and they've all shown a strong positive sales trend. November: 1380k, apparently up big YoY (I have 1.0m for Xbox Nov 16, but that number may be low, as it was a leaked number that was later questioned). Xbox at least beat switch to finish 2nd. Dec, 1365k (this was actually down YoY, 1.511 Dec 16, which remains Xbox One's best single sales month ever). But it still seemed good because Xbox beat PS4. January, best Xbox January ever, 235k, vs 158k Jan 17 (although it was a 5 week January in 18, it was still a weekly january Xbox record too), and now February, ~310k (215k Feb 17)

If you add all 4 months up, 3290k with XX vs 2884k previous year, Xbox sales up 14% YoY for the 4 months since XX release. Not as much as I thought actually. And you could complain about X(1)X launch month being in there, but, PS4 didn't tear it up on PS4 Pro launch month, doing 1.1m in November 2016.

Also so far for 2018 Xbox would be on a strong "best year ever" pace, granted through two low sales months, and we have a LONG way to go there.. That'd seem weird for a console in it's 5th year though, absent an outside influence...

Also I read a LOT of this narrative pre release on Gaf/Era/maybe here, "Xbox 1 X will be very niche, not sell, wont have any major effect, as we see for Ps4 Pro" etc etc. So now to read so many comments about "Xbox had a new system and still didn't win the month" or any other reference to "well of course, new system released" to explain YoY gains, is funny to me. You cant say a system wont have any effect pre-release then pull the "of course, brand new system, what do you expect" card later!

Plus it's still 499, with very very little in the way of discounting or bundling having happened yet. PS4 Pro, befitting it's year older status, at least has seen some occasional discounting to 349 lately, bundling etc. X1X should get that this holiday.

Yay I wrote an essay. 860 words...
 
Globalisateur said:
Yes but Nintendo owns all publishing rights of B2 (and soon B3). Bayonneta can only be on another platform if Nintendo agrees. According to the devs explanation, asking Bayonneta 2 / 3 on another console would be the same as asking if Mario could be ported on another console.

Whether the IP is owned or not by Nintendo doesn't matter in this case cause Bayonneta 2 and 3 will never be published on anything other than Nintendo consoles as long as the japanese company is alive. And Nintendo is the oldest videogame company in the world...

It's a special case but de facto B2 and B3 are Nintendo first party.
Click to expand...

That still isn't first party. That's second party, a category that isn't as prevalent as it was back in the PS2, PS1, NES, etc. days. Where an IP was owned by a 3rd party but due to publishing rights or other contract negotiations with a platform holder would never appear on other platforms.

So, let me rephrase that, it's good to see a non-Nintendo first party developer doing well on the platform. There were other similar deals as Bayonetta 2 on both Wii and Wii-U that where exclusivity on a non-Nintendo first party developed title was locked to Nintendo's platform that failed to chart on NPD.

Especially if they deviated from a child oriented game. Virtually all somewhat successful 3rd party developed and Nintendo exclusive games that charted on Wii/Wii-U were child oriented (just dance, Udraw, for example).

So, Mario vs. Rabbids was interesting as a 3rd party developed title that charted, but it wasn't entirely out of left park as it was child oriented and featured Nintendo characters. Bayonetta 2 is interesting charting as it's not an original Nintendo property, doesn't feature original Nintendo character designs, and features a very mature theme (even more sexually suggestive and violent than the first one) that makes it inappropriate in most parents eyes for children.

Heck I don't believe Bayonetta charted on NPD on either PS3 or X360 (hence why Platinum needed significant funding help to even think about a sequel as Sega weren't interested in a sequel due to sales performance). And Bayonetta 2 didn't chart on Wii-U, IIRC.

Regards,
SB
 
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Rangers said:
That'd seem weird for a console in it's 5th year though, absent an outside influence...
Click to expand...
howso, the xbox 360 had its best NPD year in either 6th or 7th year, the ps3 in either the 5th or 6th year
'either' depends on whether you count the nov/dec of its first year as a year
It seems to be the new norm
 
zed said:
howso, the xbox 360 had its best NPD year in either 6th or 7th year, the ps3 in either the 5th or 6th year
'either' depends on whether you count the nov/dec of its first year as a year
It seems to be the new norm
Click to expand...

360 could have been Kinect causing the late surge. PS3 I didn't remember (if that's true).

Since we are on this topic here's where Xbox One vs 360 gen over gen stands now after February 2018/2010 (using admittedly imperfect NPD estimates for Xbox One as our data has varying accuracy nowdays)

Xbox One 20,677k
360 19,385k

So Xbox One lead stands at 1,292k.

However unless Xbox X gives Xbox One an increasing boost, 360 should take the lead in the next 12 months or so, as it sales were really gangbusters in 2010/11.

360 sales the rest of 2010/11 for example

March 338k
April 185k
May 195k
June 452k
July 443k
August 357k
September 484k
October 325k
November 1374k
December 1856k
2011
January 381k
February 535k (!)
March 433k
April 297k

It just continues on, 360 had a blistering 2011 all the way through Nov/Dec too. Also topped half a million in June 2011.

February 2011 seems like a good candidate for when Xbox One falls behind gen over gen. Although much remains to be seen.

BTW a little OT but, I saw article "Microsoft racing towards one trillion dollar company". Yep, market cap over 700 billion now, 4th place. Geez, I had no idea.

They could throw countless billions at Xbox or buying things for Xbox and it would mean nothing to them.
 
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Rangers said:
They could throw countless billions at Xbox or buying things for Xbox and it would mean nothing to them.
Click to expand...

Publicly traded company. If they do that they risk losing shareholder/investor confidence. That's bad unless they can justify it. Minecraft could be justified because that's all everyone talked about when it came to games among people that didn't play games. There aren't many things you can drop a billion USD on, much less countless billions, that wouldn't result in shareholder/investor alarm and likely lead to the CEO and any involved department heads being removed.

Regards,
SB
 
Rangers said:
360 could have been Kinect causing the late surge. PS3 I didn't remember (if that's true).
Click to expand...
ps3-annual-sales-2012.png

Note: they're missing 2006: (due to it being only out 2 months I assume)
So if ps4 behaves like the ps3 2018 will be its best selling year NPD
So if xb1 behaves like the xb360 2019 will be its best selling year NPD
 
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