specwarGP2
Regular
Every week I get to visit different peoples homes and from what I've seen, imo DD only is at least a few generations away. People here take superfast broadband and the knowledge to network a home for granted.
Modular optical drives should be standard on today's consoles
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Every week I get to visit different peoples homes and from what I've seen, imo DD only is at least a few generations away. People here take superfast broadband and the knowledge to network a home for granted.
4G is coming and with it many people in the USA even in rural area's will have acess to broad band speed anywhere for only $40 a month.
This is just the sprint verison. The att and verizon verisons are said to be faster when they come out. The land scape of broad band will change drasticly over the next few years. Also last I heard the big 3 are trying to get grants from the goverment to help roll this out to those in more rural areas because its much cheaper for 4g than running wires out to them.
Sure because COD MW 2 is not DD and either are the main games. If they were to offer them as DD as well as on disc you would see numbers change.
Its funny though. Steam , D2D, Impulse , GamersGate is already up to 29% ?
THis is from one of your links. Its funny that the average age of dual format buyers are so young. Limited acess to credit cards or game cards in store ?
I think your ignoring whats been going on.
The question isn't what you pefer to anyone. The question is , if a console was DD only would you still buy it if your fav games were exclusive to it (fable , goew , halo and what not)
Ask that of current generation xbox owners and see what the numbers are. I think you'd be very surprised.
You also miss whats happened this generation.
The xbox live arcade games started with a hard limit of 50 megs and through developer pressure is now at 2gigs (or mabye higher at this point) and MS went from only allowng 50 megs of download per game to allowing full xbox 360 6.8 gig titles to be downloaded through their service.
They are obviously testing the waters just like sony.
Whole platforms have already gone DD only. Its started with more mobile devices. You have your e readers and then your smart phones , moving foward you will have portable gaming systems go dd only. The psp go was an obvious half step but sony messed up by having no clear path of getting your umds on the system or having the psp library avalible from day one. After the handhelds the consoles will move dd only.
Saga_Studios
Newcomer
Consoles will move too DDL only, just not the next gen, it will be after, this up coming gen, when the internet is more wide spread. Problem being, who ever makes a PM console will win the war. If MS, Sony decide that there consoles are ddl only, and nintendo makes theres with a pm, they will. People aren't gonna want a ddl only system. Take it like this, Too Human, was aspost to be such a great game, and when it came out was a piece of crap. If it were ddl only you just wasted $60 bucks on this piece of crap, were with pm, you can go back and get your money back, or trade it in on something else. Problem is used game sales, piracy. Thats why they want to go 2 ddl only. People don't want that the developers do. Mircosoft doesn't care, as long as there making money. If they go ddl only, they'll make less cause nintendo's fan base will expain even more. Tell me, if Nintendo has a 4-2-1 ratio, were do you think the developers will go, were the money is. DDL can be a good thing and a bad thing. PM will always win when it comes to games, movies. Why is that? because DVD, or blu-ray, or what ever, people want them, small business, stores want them, blockboster wants them. In any form, they want them. What would happen if everyting went ddl? they'd be out of alot of profits or screwed. If music went complete DDL only, which it will be the first thing to go ddl only, already doing it, whats going to happen to all the CD players in these cars? are we all gonna have to get new ones for them, maybe just a ipod, when they stop using cds? DDL has a major effect on alot of things. PM will still be king in 10-30 years but sonner or later were'll all be ddl everything, from music, games, movies, programs. There will still be PM , just the scale will be tipping the other way, towards ddl. Problem is the internet, it just isn't up to a high enough ratio yet. only 30 people around the world have fast internet. Most of those people don't have anything fast than 3mb internet. Until internet is up to at least 15mb min, with no caps, your not gonna see a ddl only console. Sure sony can make the psp go, but its just down loading games that are smaller than 1.4 gigs, and it takes 10-2 hours sometimes, depending on were you are. If your going down the road, you might get a signal here and there. Problem is internet, Not fast enough yet, in alot of the world. Caps are a problem too. Developers make this game oh its so great, greatest game ever made, i guarntee it, comes out and its a piece of crap, 4million downloads, 4 million po people, yet they won't get there money back., why? because its ddl only. PM will be king for the next 30 years, at least in the next gen consoles, after that, all bets are off. The only one I see going ddl only is sony, in the next gen. Going DDL will make consoles cheaper, maybe games, i dought it though. There just gonna try to max out there profits as long as they can. Alot of people say that the next gen will be ddl only because, dvds, and blu-ray are past there prime. DVDs in games yes, movies no, blu ray, not for another 10 years. Alot of people buy dvd movies, people are just starting to buy br movies. Sony invested all that money pushing br, you think there just gonna cut and run for ddl only, and leave behind all these ps3, br onwers? You say there past there prime? what anout all these compaines, developing new discs, of 200gig or bigger? Just because its not out now, doesn't mean it will be out with in 2 years. You think PM is dead, I just laugh at how wrong you are. Oh, PM will be dead in 4 years, yeah, thats what they said back in the 90s. You were wrong then as you are now. PM doesn't die, it just changes every 5-10 years, something better comes along. Are Discs dead? maybe, maybe not, are there better things out there, yeah, are they cheaper, no. Will they be cheaper in the future, yeah. We may of cape from records, tapes, cds, dvds, br, whats next? maybe another disc, maybe some ssd, flash, usb, who knows. PM is still king, its what people want. Developers don't want it because of p/ugs, well, fix it so it can't be ripped, and work something out with gamestop. DDL is coming, just not as soon as you think it is. Its here now, it just doen't even touch PM sales. DDL will not be in the next gen consoles, maybe the ones after them. PM rules, DDL, its ok, just slow, takes forever to download a game, compared to running to gs, buyin the game, going home, poppin it in and staring to play, were with ddl, you have another 3 hours to go, before you get to play. PM people want it, love it, even though it might break, ddl get ripped off, takes for ever to get the game, prices stay the same for the game for 6 months after it came out. DDL screws other 90 percent of video games. Heck I say lets go back to the sega dreamcast, everyone in the world could play than, no problems. Way I see it DDL will be here, just don't think its gonna take over PM for the next 2 decades. You need fast internet first, about 10mbs for at least 60% of the world.
Saga_Studios
Newcomer
You also got to know that, alot of the cities, counties, they sign deals with internet compaines, for years, you might have verizon dsl 3mb for the next 10 years only because of this deal. Which means its, there zone to do with, sorry comcast, time warner, your not allowed to go up there until are contract is done. Screws the people. Idiots, sign Verizon, should of went with cable. No Fios up here, wish there were.
KOTOR didn't work on my pc. Steam refunded my money. Why wouldn't other companys. As long as its a resonable amount of time there should not be any problem. Even Itunes has to refund your money in a timely manner.
Also there is such a thing as demos and reviews.
Nintendo already has two DD systems out there. They use discs/carts also , but they have a dd system in place for the future. Nintendo has already built themselves as the grandma system. I don't see that changing.
I have to disagree with you there. People are used to buying these things as a PM they never had any choice. From when vhs/beta max was created that was the only way. But many are embracing netflix streaming and man use itune movies and zune movies. The major problem is pricing. To keep retail happy they are pricing DD to high while giving less content. That has to change.
What happened to all the 8 track players in cars when tapes came out ? What happened to tapes when cd players came out for cars ? The new cars will ship with radios + an aux port for your DD system. Who knows some may ship with ipods or zunes built into the radio that will wirelessly sync to your pc in your house.
It wil lbe the same with books. At some point people will stop buying physical books and buy DD through kindles or nooks. In another 20 years I'm sure the only people with physical books will be children and perhaps the very old.
What are they downloading ? Books are at most 50 megs. Songs are 4 megs. Even video is't that bad thanks to newer codecs. 10-15 gig movies are pretty damn good quality
.I can't talk of other countrys but here in America there are alot of options. You have dsl , cable , fios then you have wireless like 3g and soon 4 g in many places. It will only expand during the next generation I posted numbers above. But 10MB/s is enough to download a 1 gig in 1m40 seconds.
Whats better. Selling 6m copies at retail where you pay for the physical medium , you pay for the art on it , you pay for the boxes , you pay for shipping , you pay the store and the platform holder or selling 4m were you just pay for bandwidth and to the platform holder ?
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Why download speeds wont improve at all in the next 30 years ? Or do you think we are going to need 100s of gigs for games ? My questions are 1) What physical medium are you putting that on that is cost effective and is fast enough 2) Who is going to make all that content and how are you going to afford it . 3) This gen we actual saw the average game decrease in size in comparing the 360 to the xbox and ps2.
If we assume next gen the average game is 15 gigs which is more than twice the avalible room for xbox 360 games. Your looking at with just a 10MB/s download speed a 25 minute download. Thats enough time to start the download , go to the bathroom and get a snack.
In fact there are games like wow that let you download a few gigs and then it will download the rest as your playing. NExt gen games can do the same after a short intial download of say 1-2 gigs.
People will not want discs in the coming decade. More and more people will have home media servers in their homes. IT wont be complicated like today. You go out buy a box just like a blura player but instead of taking discs its connected to the internet and has a massive hardrive and you can buy movies for it , music for it and stream content to it as well as record your tv shows to it.
You already see the first steps to it . My 360 offers games and movies. My fios dvr lets me record any show and stream it all over my house. My bluray player lets me not only use bluray discs but go on youtube and stream netflix.
Its the trend
And whats the cost of these 200 gig and bigger discs. Dvd's never went past dual layers and even dual layers are very costly compared to single layer and have a higher chance of failures. Bluray is already 50 gigs at 2 layers. for 200 gigs your looking at 8 layers thats 8 times the chances of something screwing up and thus much more costly for companys Mean while hardrives continue to drop in price and go up in capacity. 1TB drives are only $80 bucks no a days and capacity will only go up .
I don't know who claimed that PM would be dead in the 90s. Thats just crazy talk
People just want content. They don't care how they get it . DD keeps getting stronger while each generation PM gets weaker. DVD came out
DVD came out in 1995. At that time 4.7 and 8.4 gigs was huge it was about the size of the average hardrive. However by the time bluray launched at 50 gigs capcity we already have 500 gig hardrives. It was no longer a huge leap.
At the same point. Holographic discs sounds like the next big things. But we have 2TB hardrives. according to wiki sony/philips/tdk/panasonic/optware want to release a 1TB disc in 2019. WD already wants a 3TB hardrive this year. So once again DD will be stronger in the past. with a 3TB hardrive you can store 61 50 gig bluray discs. Thats 61 movies and I'd wager is more than the average person owns on dvd let alone bluray.
And thats without considering increases to codecs.
For games you'd be able to fit 61 full dual layer bluray games on it . But for next generation i'd doubt there would be many true 50 gig games. At 15GB a game you can fit over 500 games on that hardrive.
Now I'm not sure how europe is, but I know japan already has blazing fast itnernet , and hopefully Obama doesn't fall for the bullshit some of the cable companys are spewing and force them to upgrade the lines for proper speeds and helps push 4g for more rural area's.
As for the psp 2. You can most likely remove the umd drive and replace it with a 1.8 hardrive. I can buy a 120-250 gig one for under $80 bucks. IT uses less than 3w at max power. I wonder how much that umd drive uses. But for a psp2 flash is cheap and will only get cheaper
Gamestop says that used games account for about 1/3rd of thier total busniess. Thats 1/3rd of thier revenue that ms/sony/nintendo and the developers never see. You can bet they want that money and they are already starting the fight by putting in codes for extra content that if you didn't buy new you'd have to pay for to get used.
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The majority will always want a physical medium considering how companies dick around with DRM/used games sales.
Especially with how the size of games are getting bigger and bigger. PS3 has 3 dual layered bluray games now, that will only get bigger next gen.
And retailers aren't going to put up with abandoning used game sales, PSP Go proved that as some retailers boycotted it. Hell retailers are pissed over Mass Effect 2's project $10.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Please use paragraphs/chapter divisions. Text like that is pretty annoying to read.
I disagree.
Also games have not gotten much bigger. With the 360 we see the average title reducing its size and only a few games (the majority of those are japanese rpgs) use multiple discs .
The majority of retailers don't care . Game cards require less room and are cheaper inventry because if they aren't activated during the sale they are not valid. So the store no longer risks loosing a $60 item to theft or to damage. They will now loose a 10 cent item. Inventory mangement and shipping is also greatly reduced.
About the only retailer who will care is Gamestop. But then again having walmart , toys r us , k mart , pathmark , shop rite , stop and shop , target , whole food. Would all love to carry the actual systems because there will a profit built into it.
You keep saying retailers boycotted the psp go. Can you list those companys that did ?
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Actually, games are getting bigger.
PS3 games are all big, although they don't really have to try that hard to reduce storage requirements with BR
But look at the 360's games of this year: ME2 two discs, Reach probably has to be two discs just for the increased detail in the content, Fable 3 and Alan Wake hasn't been announced yet but I wouldn't be surprised; and Gears 3 (if there's gonna be one on the 360) is almost certainly two discs as well.
For multiplatform, there's Rage, and I bet Doom4 won't be small either; but beyond these obviously extreme cases and FFXIII, you have to wonder about GTA5, Assassin's Creed 3, Crysis, and so on. It's unlikely that they're gonna fit on a single disc, especially now that the ice has been broken and by exclusive titles.
The next gen consoles will all get a big RAM boost, that's certain. I wouldn't expect any less then 2 gigabytes and that means the amount of source data will increase again. You really can't expect AAA games that fill 2GB RAM to come on a single DVD...
The other problem with DD only is that as fast as broadband might get, most users would still prefer to keep their game collection available at all times. Storing a dozen 15-30GB titles on the HDD would require a 0.5TB drive on their own at least (without any DLC, movies, themes and other content). Those aren't going to be that cheap in 2.5" form...
And it would also introduce PC-related issues like fragmentation and unreliable loading times. So it's not a clear win-win situation at all.
PS3 games are all big, although they don't really have to try that hard to reduce storage requirements with BR
But look at the 360's games of this year: ME2 two discs, Reach probably has to be two discs just for the increased detail in the content, Fable 3 and Alan Wake hasn't been announced yet but I wouldn't be surprised; and Gears 3 (if there's gonna be one on the 360) is almost certainly two discs as well.
For multiplatform, there's Rage, and I bet Doom4 won't be small either; but beyond these obviously extreme cases and FFXIII, you have to wonder about GTA5, Assassin's Creed 3, Crysis, and so on. It's unlikely that they're gonna fit on a single disc, especially now that the ice has been broken and by exclusive titles.
The next gen consoles will all get a big RAM boost, that's certain. I wouldn't expect any less then 2 gigabytes and that means the amount of source data will increase again. You really can't expect AAA games that fill 2GB RAM to come on a single DVD...
The other problem with DD only is that as fast as broadband might get, most users would still prefer to keep their game collection available at all times. Storing a dozen 15-30GB titles on the HDD would require a 0.5TB drive on their own at least (without any DLC, movies, themes and other content). Those aren't going to be that cheap in 2.5" form...
And it would also introduce PC-related issues like fragmentation and unreliable loading times. So it's not a clear win-win situation at all.
Even if both discs are fully used thats only 13.4 gigs however. I used 15 gigs above in my average size for a next gen title.
No bu I also don't see developers producing content that requires 50 gigs either. For the average game it will be much much lower
Why would you you use a 2.5 drive ? With no optical you can now use that 5.25 inch space for a 3.5inch drive and still save room. Standard hardrives are cheap. For a consumer your paying as low as $80 for a 1TB hardrive. For MS or Sony you'd be paying much closer to the cost of manufacture. We have 3 gig drives coming this year also which will reduce costs even more as 1TB drives will need fewer platters .
1TB hardrive would hold over 20 games at a 50gig size. More to the point as the generation moves foward hardrives will continue to decrease in price and increase in size , just like this generation. We started with 20 gig drives and have 250 gig drives. On the same course a 5TB hardrive wouldn't be out of the question at some point next gen. A 5TB drive would hold over 100 games 50gigs in size.
Not only that but unlike bluray you'd have great transfer rates. The only problem would be download time. However you can combat that two ways. 1) Preloading like steam. 2) Download a portion of the game and have backround downloading while playing it or the console is in sleep mode at the end of a session. I don't see why load times would be unreliable or defragmation a problem. MS makes OS's they can easily set up a defrager to run every so often. A modern hardrive has very fast transfer rates. a drive would be doing 85to 120MB/s vs bluray at 12x doing 54MB/s and th drive would have lower seek times also.
You can add a small pool of flash as a buffer also.
No bu I also don't see developers producing content that requires 50 gigs either. For the average game it will be much much lower
Why would you you use a 2.5 drive ? With no optical you can now use that 5.25 inch space for a 3.5inch drive and still save room. Standard hardrives are cheap. For a consumer your paying as low as $80 for a 1TB hardrive. For MS or Sony you'd be paying much closer to the cost of manufacture. We have 3 gig drives coming this year also which will reduce costs even more as 1TB drives will need fewer platters .
1TB hardrive would hold over 20 games at a 50gig size. More to the point as the generation moves foward hardrives will continue to decrease in price and increase in size , just like this generation. We started with 20 gig drives and have 250 gig drives. On the same course a 5TB hardrive wouldn't be out of the question at some point next gen. A 5TB drive would hold over 100 games 50gigs in size.
Not only that but unlike bluray you'd have great transfer rates. The only problem would be download time. However you can combat that two ways. 1) Preloading like steam. 2) Download a portion of the game and have backround downloading while playing it or the console is in sleep mode at the end of a session. I don't see why load times would be unreliable or defragmation a problem. MS makes OS's they can easily set up a defrager to run every so often. A modern hardrive has very fast transfer rates. a drive would be doing 85to 120MB/s vs bluray at 12x doing 54MB/s and th drive would have lower seek times also.
You can add a small pool of flash as a buffer also.
Saga_Studios
Newcomer
I'm just gonna say it like this, people want to trade in a game they don't like and get there money back. People want to trade in a game down the road, that there bored with. People care, game stop cares alittle, renters care, some other stores care, developerers don't care, they just want there profits. They want to stop used game sales, pricacy, and get the most bang for there buck out of these games. Tell me, if all 3 next gen systems launched next year, even though thats not gonna happen, but say if it did. What do you think would happen, if 2 were ddl only and one had pm? Pm would stomp ddl only. Fact is internet is not up to speeds yet that is possible. Most of the north east we have 10mb internet, that if your lucky will run 7mbs most of the time. I'm just wondering, how you say you can download a gig in 1.4 mins, impossible up here. My friend downloads movies all the time, takes him 1-2 hours depending on the movie, and hes running 10mbs. Internet isn't up to speed, and it won't be for this upcoming generation of systems. Internet will impove, just not at the rate your thinking of. The forming gen after this up coming, maybe ddl only, but not this upcoming gen. You say developers, and the big 3 are pushing to raize caps, or get rid of them? Well, thats not helping to much. Really what have they done? Hey raise your caps now!, or what? You think the internet compaines are afarid of the big 3? There not, they'll raize them when they want to don't when they say. Bottom line DDL will over take PM, but not for at least a min of 20-30 years.Which ever next gen console has a PM will be king, it will have the biggest share of the market. Developers will than have to make a choice, make games for it or not. If they do it gets better, if they don't they lose more money on working on a ddl system only. People will buy PM, over DDL any day. The only really thing in this world that is ddl only are cell phones. Most of the programs on them are under 30mb, and even with full bars it can take 5-10 mins to download the damn program.
Bottome line, the next gen consoles will have a PM. DDL only systems after that. PM will still be around in 2030,40,50. It all depends on the internet, and when most of the world has fast enough internet, that most things will be DDL only. Were just not there yet and we may not be there with in 20 years. Oh and as far as you say aout discs getting scratched, they said it about records, cds, dvds, blurays, and they say it abou the next disc to, thats what happens to discs they get scrached and they break, big deal, get use to it, thats what they have always done. I'm just amazed, how can people think there so right yet be so wrong. PC&Mac users have been saying things about the videogame industry since the atari 2600 came out, and they always try to predict the future, some times there right but alot of times there wrong.
Bottome line, the next gen consoles will have a PM. DDL only systems after that. PM will still be around in 2030,40,50. It all depends on the internet, and when most of the world has fast enough internet, that most things will be DDL only. Were just not there yet and we may not be there with in 20 years. Oh and as far as you say aout discs getting scratched, they said it about records, cds, dvds, blurays, and they say it abou the next disc to, thats what happens to discs they get scrached and they break, big deal, get use to it, thats what they have always done. I'm just amazed, how can people think there so right yet be so wrong. PC&Mac users have been saying things about the videogame industry since the atari 2600 came out, and they always try to predict the future, some times there right but alot of times there wrong.
YOu don't get your money back . IF you bought a game launch day and opened it up and then brought it for trade ins. You'd at best get 50% of the retail cost of the game. Which is $30 bucks. But your more likely to get $20-25 bucks for it. Which can be as low as a third of the price of the game.
Mabye , but with DD they wont be able to. In fact DD can increase the time frame in which developers can support the title with new content.
Yup and thats a good thing because it allows devs to make more games for us to enjoy.
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I disagree. I think the DD system would do quite well esp if it had a solid stable of exclusives. IF the xbox next is DD only it would do just fine.
Where is he downloading from. Bit torrent rarely has enough seeders to max out a 10mb/s connection.
But you do know , you don't need to download the full game all at once. It can download as you play the game. You would only need the intial portion of the game. 1-5 gigs at most to start enjoying it.
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When people can get 4g with 10MB/s downloads with unlimited acess in a portable modem you can bet many will switch from slower internet connections that cost as much if not more.
Its the same as what happened in my area. Fios came out at 20/5 and cable went from 10/5 to 15 /5 .No fios is talking about offering 50/15 and the cable company here started talking 30/10.
Read my previous post. Hardrive sizes went form being on par with a single disc in the dvd era to being many times larger capacity wise in the bluray era. Flash foward to the end of the decade when holographic discs come about and it will be even more lopsided than it is now.
Move to sprint 4g. You'd love it .
PM is going away. Consoles are vastly diffrent then every other form of media out there. IT changes every 5-7 years and consumers start from scratch. ITs allways been that way. DD's take over of Consoles will be much swifter than any other field aside form smart phones.
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