Giving away $2 million worth of high-definition TVs is a good way to make an audience like you - but even handing out a thousand of Samsung's 23" sets didn't change the fact that many in the audience at J Allard's GDC keynote on Wednesday morning weren't sold on his vision of the future.
Casually clad, open and passionate in what he's saying, and with an infectious grin, Allard is unquestionably a great speaker. However, his annunciation of the dawn of the so-called "HD Era" just didn't seem to wash with many of the game creators and publishers who had gathered in San Francisco for the conference, and even the internal logic of much of what he said seemed lacking.
It's not, as game developers after the speech were keen to emphasise, that they don't believe in high-definition. It's a great leap forward for graphics. But the reaction to being asked to see it as a defining factor of next-generation games was rather more wary, and with good reason.
American developers, unsurprisingly, were most enthusiastic about the HD Era - some even unreservedly so. After all, not only has the Xbox performed best in the USA - compared to a miserable performance in Japan and a tough slog in Europe - but HDTV has also taken off here much earlier than in Europe, where sets will only start to appear on the market this year, and TV broadcasts aren't expected to begin until 2006.
However, even some American game creators joined their European counterparts in expressing doubt about the HD Era. In a market where 5.1 surround sound is still possessed only by a small minority of consumers, despite equipment being available for many years, the replacement of televisions with HD sets is going to be a very slow, gradual process. Of course, Xbox Next - like all other next-gen consoles - will look great on a standard television, but that's not really the point. If you make HD into a key selling point for your console, you've potentially alienated a huge majority of consumers. Is Microsoft really willing to do that?
The answer seems to be a yes. Indeed, the company's message at yesterday's keynote seemed similar in this regard in more than one area. Allard opened his talk with a description of an old Atari advertisement which depicted an entire extended family and friends sitting in front of a console enjoying games - from young children to grandparents. This, he implied, was the vision of the HD Era - but from that inclusive message, within minutes he was talking about the three defining points of next-gen being high definition graphics, enhanced communication and customisable games.
All of those things are laudable, certainly, but are they mass market? Aside from the low installed base of HDTV, what about online? This generation, Microsoft focused on Xbox Live heavily, and provided an excellent service - which only 10 per cent of Xbox owners chose to use. Online, like HDTV, is still hardcore, and the shift to mainstream is more gradual than anyone at Microsoft seems willing to admit.
And what about customisation? Here, again, Microsoft seems to have chosen a niche interest area as a key selling point for its system. Certainly, there's a market out there - a certain percentage of teenage boys and young men - who might be considered a "remix generation", as Allard labelled them. They want to "trick out" their cars, modify their experience, and "self-express" through media. The success of Need for Speed Underground proves that - but while it's a good market for a videogame, is that a social trend worth basing an entire console strategy on? If you want to include everyone in that Atari advertisement, from kids to grandparents, in your target market, should you really be making something that only appeals to a small segment of a certain age group into your selling point?
Ironically, it's Microsoft's rival - the market leader whose share of the industry the Seattle-based giant is gunning for in the next generation - that actually seems to be getting this right. Sony has shown a willingness to experiment with broadening its demographic, introducing titles such as Eye Toy and SingStar which your average member of the "Remix Generation" probably wouldn't play in a million years - but your grandparents just might - and encouraging a range of software that covers all bases and appeals to all ages, genders and persuasions. That, it seems, is the difference between selling 20 million consoles in a generation, and selling 100 million.
Allard knows that Microsoft's next-generation console must appeal to everyone if it is to be successful, but as one developer commented last night, "Xbox is so busy trying to look cool to American teenage boys that it looks like they might forget about everyone else - again."
Casually clad, open and passionate in what he's saying, and with an infectious grin, Allard is unquestionably a great speaker. However, his annunciation of the dawn of the so-called "HD Era" just didn't seem to wash with many of the game creators and publishers who had gathered in San Francisco for the conference, and even the internal logic of much of what he said seemed lacking.
It's not, as game developers after the speech were keen to emphasise, that they don't believe in high-definition. It's a great leap forward for graphics. But the reaction to being asked to see it as a defining factor of next-generation games was rather more wary, and with good reason.
American developers, unsurprisingly, were most enthusiastic about the HD Era - some even unreservedly so. After all, not only has the Xbox performed best in the USA - compared to a miserable performance in Japan and a tough slog in Europe - but HDTV has also taken off here much earlier than in Europe, where sets will only start to appear on the market this year, and TV broadcasts aren't expected to begin until 2006.
However, even some American game creators joined their European counterparts in expressing doubt about the HD Era. In a market where 5.1 surround sound is still possessed only by a small minority of consumers, despite equipment being available for many years, the replacement of televisions with HD sets is going to be a very slow, gradual process. Of course, Xbox Next - like all other next-gen consoles - will look great on a standard television, but that's not really the point. If you make HD into a key selling point for your console, you've potentially alienated a huge majority of consumers. Is Microsoft really willing to do that?
The answer seems to be a yes. Indeed, the company's message at yesterday's keynote seemed similar in this regard in more than one area. Allard opened his talk with a description of an old Atari advertisement which depicted an entire extended family and friends sitting in front of a console enjoying games - from young children to grandparents. This, he implied, was the vision of the HD Era - but from that inclusive message, within minutes he was talking about the three defining points of next-gen being high definition graphics, enhanced communication and customisable games.
All of those things are laudable, certainly, but are they mass market? Aside from the low installed base of HDTV, what about online? This generation, Microsoft focused on Xbox Live heavily, and provided an excellent service - which only 10 per cent of Xbox owners chose to use. Online, like HDTV, is still hardcore, and the shift to mainstream is more gradual than anyone at Microsoft seems willing to admit.
And what about customisation? Here, again, Microsoft seems to have chosen a niche interest area as a key selling point for its system. Certainly, there's a market out there - a certain percentage of teenage boys and young men - who might be considered a "remix generation", as Allard labelled them. They want to "trick out" their cars, modify their experience, and "self-express" through media. The success of Need for Speed Underground proves that - but while it's a good market for a videogame, is that a social trend worth basing an entire console strategy on? If you want to include everyone in that Atari advertisement, from kids to grandparents, in your target market, should you really be making something that only appeals to a small segment of a certain age group into your selling point?
Ironically, it's Microsoft's rival - the market leader whose share of the industry the Seattle-based giant is gunning for in the next generation - that actually seems to be getting this right. Sony has shown a willingness to experiment with broadening its demographic, introducing titles such as Eye Toy and SingStar which your average member of the "Remix Generation" probably wouldn't play in a million years - but your grandparents just might - and encouraging a range of software that covers all bases and appeals to all ages, genders and persuasions. That, it seems, is the difference between selling 20 million consoles in a generation, and selling 100 million.
Allard knows that Microsoft's next-generation console must appeal to everyone if it is to be successful, but as one developer commented last night, "Xbox is so busy trying to look cool to American teenage boys that it looks like they might forget about everyone else - again."
Real even news reporting.
aka bluray/hddvd
