It really depends on when the Xbox 3 is released and what the targer resolution is. At the rate silicon continues to advance we could see eDRAM 8x larger if the time the Xbox 3 launches in the 2010-2012 timeframe. A 1080p framebuffer with 4xMSAA and using a 32bit color depth format and 32bit Z/stencile buffer would need about 64MB to avoid tiling. For FP16 your would need about 128MB. If price and future process node drops become uncertain I would think 64MB would be likely. 1080p/FP10/4xMSAA and 1080p/FP16/2xMSAA, and with tiling still on the table you could go higher if you wanted in terms of MSAA, color format, or resolution. Maybe some better tiling logic could also be designed.
It seems plausible that Sony and MS could use eDRAM and utilize it as a framebuffer. But I would also wonder if they could possibly go with a more flexible design that allowed the eDRAM to be more versatile as well.