How's XB360 gonna sell in Japan?

[scooby_dooby]

How well did the few RPGs sell on Xbox?

This is just a perfect example of your compelte lack of understanding about the situtation. KOTOR and Fable both sold extremely well. Jade empire sold nearly 1million copies and was hampered by poor reviews, and short gamelength, and mainly lack of hardcore RPG elements, NOT lack of interest.

For examp;e:
"Fable has been shattering sales records in North America since its release. The Xbox RPG sold more copies in its first week at EB Games than any other Xbox title ever. It also broke Game Rush's first-day sales record, and was the number one-selling overall title on any platform at GameStop."

KOTOR is over 1.5million last I heard. Pretty damn good for a console with 1/4 of the userbase of the PS2. Doesn't exactly speak volumes to your theory that XBOX gamers don't like RPG's.

Oh and I thought this was very interesting to point out:

Projected Sales: 3 in japan, 3.3 world:
"Square is targeting sales of 3 to 3.5 million copies of FFX in Japan. In America and Europe, the company is expecting to sell, respectively, 1.4 to 1.8 million and 1.2 to 1.5 million copies when the game goes on sale "

Actual Sales: 2million Japan, 6.6 million world
"Combined with more than 2 million sales in Japan and around 6.6 million worldwide sales of Final Fantasy X"

So the world outsold japan by 3 to 1 on SE's last really good(traditional) FF title. Shattering SE's expectations.

SE's estimates last time were WAY off, they totally underestimated the world market, and ajapan did NOT step up to the plate as they had expectected. World bought over 6million copies, while Japan only mustered 2 million!

Why would they repeat that mistake 5 years later? It would be smart for them to support the worldwide leader based on past sales that's where 75% of their revenue comes from(on the last iteration of that specific franchise).

p.s. I hope you don't bother arguing about X-2 as we both know that game was an anomoly, it's pop-style was never going to be popular with western audiences and it was doomed from day 1. IT's is not your typical FF RPG however.

 

[<nu>faust]

holy sh** ffx-2 sold more than 3.4 million!!!! wow i gotta repect the power of square-enix's hype machine and the brand name that is final fantasy. A game like FFx2 whose target market clearly is 15 year old japanese high school girls (from the flamboyant art to the jpop trash music to the overall cheesiness) manages to appeal to such a wide demographic&sell that many units,color me impressed(I don't know if that's good for the industry though). Its so funny how a franchise can have a such huge impact on a company and entire structure of market(making ps a sucess,being a key factor in 360's future in japan),do square enix or final fantasy truly deserve it?

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

FFIX beta test is really not an incentive to buy an X360 for a Japanese gamer.

If they wanted to play the game, they've been playing for nearly three years now on PS2/PC.

 

[Mmmkay]

Scooby, I think you misread the Gamespot quote. That 2 million figure was for FFX-2 sales in Japan. This source makes it much easier to understand the numbers. Basically as it stands now it's about 3 million in Japan and just over 4 million for the rest of the world. Japan met S-E's expectations and the rest of the world exceeded it. Not bad for a forecast made in April 2001.

I also think bringing in KOTOR(1.2m by the way) and Fable is somewhat flawed since they are both primarily western RPG's. It is very much an apples and oranges situation. Is there even a jRPG market on the Xbox?

Oh and FFX-2 is still the second best selling turn based jRPG* in North America, regardless of its 'non-typical' FF status. It also sold more than FFIX.

<nu>faust, I take it you didn't actually play FFX-2 for more than 10 minutes, if at all? I think 1.4million Americans just rolled their eyes at you.

*Kingdom Hearts outsold both of them but that's an action jRPG.

 

[one]

1. DOA4
2. Ridge Racer 6
3. PDZ

judging from various outlets. PGR3 is not a launch title in Japan.
As for the Xbox 360 unit itself, well, preorder in various places is not closed as quickly as the recent NDS/PSP cases (Xbox 360 is at 26th in the Amazon.co.jp ranking as of now), which tells something I guess...

It seems my prediction was spot on.

http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/2005/11/18/103,1132287750,45765,0,0.html

Famitsu.com reports the software attach rate to the Xbox 360 console preorder in Japan. The attach rate is 1.18.

For each software/peripheral preorder among the console preorders,

DOA4: 50.6%
RR6: 33.1%
PDZ: 15.2%
Xbox 360 charger kit: 26.8%

The launch in Japan is Dec 10 with 7 titles.

 

[<nu>faust]

<nu>faust, I take it you didn't actually play FFX-2 for more than 10 minutes, if at all? I think 1.4million Americans just rolled their eyes at you.
.

well actually mmkay, i did play it more than 10 minutes,me and my roommate spent good 15+ hours together in the beginning on that game but then i got bored and decided to go back to my ninja gaiden(my roommate finished the game eventually, he also bought a prima guide so he could find all them hidden items like celestial stuff and see %100 complete screen for utter geekness pleasure) First of all i did not say ffx2 is a bad game(i think its one of the better jrpgs around,its just not amongs the best imo), i said it sold millions,appealed to an incredibly broad audience and performed much better than many better games of its day just because it was backed by the brand power of the final fantasy and square-enix's excellent marketing machine.If you think other wise just tell me why; just tell me why you think the game deserved its enormous success, tell me why its so much better other jrpgs (since it sold many times more than other great games),lets have a decent constructive conversation instead of assuming and rolling eyes

But also i wanna add,I do stand by my words(as of somebody who spent more than 10 minutes), i think the music is terrible(i mean if your idea of good music is avarage high schooler jpop,than i got nothin to say) the art design is aimed at pleasing avarage female japanese high schooler's taste and there are many ultra cheesy moments in that game that no other final fantasy game ever had(at least not at that degree

 

[Phil]

KOTOR is over 1.5million last I heard. Pretty damn good for a console with 1/4 of the userbase of the PS2. Doesn't exactly speak volumes to your theory that XBOX gamers don't like RPG's.

And again, I am clearly differenciating between Square RPGs and those like Fable, Kotor and Jade Empire. If you don't see the difference and why they would appeal to different audiences, I really can't help you. EDIT: READ Mmmkay's post

Accoarding to Wipkedia (the only indication I've found):

Halo 1 (5 million), Halo 2 (7 million) are the most successful titles on Xbox, followed by Fable (1.75 million), Splinter Cell (1.52 million), GTA:VC, GTA3, PGR, Madden, ESPN NFL, KOTOR (1.16 million).

Interestingly, accoarding to this list (sales until June 2005) with games that sold over a million, it seems action, sports and racers to be very popular with the Xbox audience. At least 2 western RPGs made it to that list.

And before you bring in userbase into the equation, re-read the Square prediction extract I posted again:

At a userbase of ~20 million worldwide, Final Fantasy X sales expectations was/is much higher. Given the sales of Final Fantasy in the year it launched, it seems they hit that target pretty spot on as they predicted. Doesn't this show you that there's obviously a very Final Fantasy friendly audience on the PlayStation?

Accoarding to the Wipkedia site, Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles on GameCube hasn't even made the 1 million mark as of June 2005. And this is a Final Fantasy - a series that used to be very successful on Nintendo's consoles before the PlayStation. This shows me that there was obviously some shift in user audience when Square decided to support the PlayStation back in 1996/1997. Since then, their Final Fantasy games have sold in the millions, one after the other. I expect every Square / Japanese RPG fan to be a owner of a PSone/PS2. That you seriously believe a Final Fantasy on the current Xbox would sell in droves puzzles me really. Crystal Chronicles should be a very clear indication. As pointed out by others in this thread; I question if there's even a JRPG market on Xbox? Given there isn't a single JRPG, I'd say no and thus its success would be very limited.

Oh and I thought this was very interesting to point out: bla bla bla

Thanks for proving my point. Why am I even bothering with you?

p.s. I hope you don't bother arguing about X-2 as we both know that game was an anomoly, it's pop-style was never going to be popular with western audiences and it was doomed from day 1. IT's is not your typical FF RPG however.

Oh you're quite mistaken: As sales indicate, FF-X2 did pretty alright considering the sequel it turned out to be. I thoroughly enjoyed it. But then again, I must be one of those "Final Fantasy" and Japanese RPG fans I'm going on about further up.

Anyway, I'm done with this discussion. Allow me to re-quote Mmmkay from two posts further up:

I also think bringing in KOTOR(1.2m by the way) and Fable is somewhat flawed since they are both primarily western RPG's. It is very much an apples and oranges situation. Is there even a jRPG market on the Xbox?

THANK YOU! *thumbs up*

 

[Phil]

First of all i did not say ffx2 is a bad game(i think its one of the better jrpgs around,its just not amongs the best imo), i said it sold millions,appealed to an incredibly broad audience and performed much better than many better games of its day just because it was backed by the brand power of the final fantasy and square-enix's excellent marketing machine.If you think other wise just tell me why; just tell me why you think the game deserved its enormous success, tell me why its so much better other jrpgs (since it sold many times more than other great games),lets have a decent constructive conversation instead of assuming and rolling eyes

I can't say I disagree that the Final Fantasy name is very strong among its fans which definately played some factor in the success of X-2. IMO its success is also attributed to the success of Final Fantasy X and its characters. I did and I was very happy to play a sequel and continue the story of Spira. FF-X2 gave me hundreds of hours of enjoyment and I'm very happy they made it.

But also i wanna add,I do stand by my words(as of somebody who spent more than 10 minutes), i think the music is terrible(i mean if your idea of good music is avarage high schooler jpop,than i got nothin to say) the art design is aimed at pleasing avarage female japanese high schooler's taste and there are many ultra cheesy moments in that game that no other final fantasy game ever had(at least not at that degree

Tastes are different. I liked it.

 

[<nu>faust]

IMO its success is also attributed to the success of Final Fantasy X and its characters. I did and I was very happy to play a sequel and continue the story of Spira. FF-X2 gave me hundreds of hours of enjoyment and I'm very happy they made it.

the thing is i beleive(just my personal opinion) that since snes days, many square and/or final fantasy games perfrom incredibly well while equally impressive games being overlooked. I feel like (just like many games that ea publish),there are some s-e games out there sell as much as they do just because they enjoy the support of well established brand names and they are well supported by excellent marketing .

 

[scooby_dooby]

Let me get this right Phil, you've now changed your argument to "There are no XBOX RPG fans on the console" to "Western RPG fans don't like JRPG's"? Do you have any proof of this anomoly?

Since when are RPG fans exclusive to western or eastern? Most RPG guys I know, including myself, enjoy both. How many RPG fans will hate FF but love KOTOR? They're both great RPG's and would be enjoyed most fans of the Genre.

Like I said western audiences have always enjoyed FF games, and if any JRPG could be considered western it would be FF. I don't put much water in the western/eastern rpg thing.

Phil you're obviously to stubborn to even admit the possibility of SE doing this, so I see no point in arguing.

- XBOX Fans have proven they enjoy RPG's
- X360 will possibly be the worldwide market leader when the new FF launches
- The X360 userbase will be different than the XBOX userbase (talk about comparing apples and oranges)
- Titles like Blue Dragon, Enchant Arm and Lost Odyssey, as well as Oblivion, Fable 2, and Mass Effect will ensure there is a healthy audience of RPG fans for the console

This is a definately a possibility, there's no way you can rule it out, and to do so IMO is just being stubborn,

This should end this once and for all:

Tokyo, Japan (November 16, 2005) Sony Computer Entertainment Inc., Microsoft Corporation, and Nintendo Co., Ltd. all have expressed plans to release next-generation game consoles between the years 2005 and 2006.

In this regard, speculation about the availability of FINAL FANTASY series and DRAGON QUEST series games on these systems has been reported on various media. However, we have made no concrete decision on our strategic direction of this issue.

We will continue to disclose any important information regarding business operations immediately after we make any relevant decision.

^ That's the official statement from SE. They have still not made up their mind. Seems like Wada is not as sure as you are, Phil. If you can't accept that as proof that this is at least a POSSIBILITY then you're truly a lost cause...

 

[scooby_dooby]

And some impressions from Zero Hour:

Final Fantasy XI

Final Fantasy XI made a curious presence in Zero Hour too. It was placed next to Ninety Nine Nights with no huge sign over the area, but since it was making its U.S. debut many gamers gave FFXI a chance. In fact, more gamers seemed enthralled by FFXI compared to other games. Final Fantasy XI had a constant audience, with many people coming back to the booth to check out different character classes.

Ya..XBOX gamers have no interest in japanese RPG's, only western, riiiiiiight....

 

[Mmmkay]

well actually mmkay, i did play it more than 10 minutes,me and my roommate spent good 15+ hours together in the beginning on that game but then i got bored and decided to go back to my ninja gaiden(my roommate finished the game eventually, he also bought a prima guide so he could find all them hidden items like celestial stuff and see %100 complete screen for utter geekness pleasure) First of all i did not say ffx2 is a bad game(i think its one of the better jrpgs around,its just not amongs the best imo), i said it sold millions,appealed to an incredibly broad audience and performed much better than many better games of its day just because it was backed by the brand power of the final fantasy and square-enix's excellent marketing machine.If you think other wise just tell me why; just tell me why you think the game deserved its enormous success, tell me why its so much better other jrpgs (since it sold many times more than other great games),lets have a decent constructive conversation instead of assuming and rolling eyes

But also i wanna add,I do stand by my words(as of somebody who spent more than 10 minutes), i think the music is terrible(i mean if your idea of good music is avarage high schooler jpop,than i got nothin to say) the art design is aimed at pleasing avarage female japanese high schooler's taste and there are many ultra cheesy moments in that game that no other final fantasy game ever had(at least not at that degree

Oh god, sorry about that. I have a habit of being abrupt with people, and not explaining what I mean when I'm tired. I am trying to work on it, seriously!

You are of course entitled to your opinion on the game, my complaint was with the interpretation that your opinion reflected the intended market for the game. You described a very specific minority demographic in the Japanese gaming market "A game like FFx2 whose target market clearly is 15 year old japanese high school girls" as what you believed the game was supposed to sell to, and it was just the power of the brand that meant other people bought it.

Those 1.4 million Americans emphasise that it is the high production values, traditional story telling, and challenging gameplay which sells FF games. FFX-2 sales were down, not because of some J-Pop intro or female empowerment, but because its gameplay structure deviated from the traditional FF mold. If anything, the T&A count encouraged sales to adolescent males.

 

[seismologist]

I predict that FFXI will fail on 360 it'll do nowhere near the numbers of PS2 and PC versions because between those platforms 90% of gamers have already had a chance to play it.
and that will be the end of multiplatform SE games.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I predict that FFXI will fail on 360 it'll do nowhere near the numbers of PS2 and PC versions because between those platforms 90% of gamers have already had a chance to play it.
and that will be the end of multiplatform SE games.

I would tend to agree with you, except for the huge signs of interest at every trade show for this game, from X05, to TGS, to Zero Hour this game has consistently drawn crowds, it's strange.

I think sales will be respectable but nothing great. But I don't think it will have a large impact on SE's decisions RE: FF and DQ, I predict they will watch japanese console sales for X360, as well as worldwide console sales and then make the call.

 

[Phil]

Scooby:

I am simply baffled by the fact that you're still insisting on arguing. At least have the decency to argue things I actually said, rather than repeatedly putting words into my mouth. It's not making you stance look any better.

Let me get this right Phil, you've now changed your argument to "There are no XBOX RPG fans on the console" to "Western RPG fans don't like JRPG's"?

Care to point me to the post in which I stated there are no Xbox RPG fans?

I have since my very first post differenciated between western targeted RPGs (Fable, Kotor, Jade's Empire) to JRPG ones. Even Mmmkay agrees that it's a apples <-> oranges comparison what you're attempting here. To disprove your false accusations, here's a sniplet of almost every single reply from this thread:

Now as for reasons why they wouldn't double their worldwide audience: If we take the current Xbox userbase, I'd highly doubt most of its buyers would be even remotely interested in traditional RPGs from Japan - in fact, this is one of the genres that has been more or less exclusive to the PlayStation platform since 2 generations and one of the reasons why it's the dominent player in the Japanese markets by a large margin. The current Xbox userbase consists of many ex PC centric gamers as few multiplatform owners and some casuals. I doubt that exactly that audience would care much about Japanese RPG support. They do however care a lot about action games and western targeted franchises as Halo's success and the influx of fps's shows.

Regardless if you agree or not, the far greater point which you have ignored thus far is that the Xbox obviously isn't grabing the Japanese markets attention by any stretch - Xbox sales in Japan point to this quite clearly. The Japanese market is very RPG orientated (and not just any western targeted RPG as I have pointed out) - something the Xbox has lacked until now. Will this change? Maybe. Maybe not. The list you have supplied does sound nice, but it's no different than the "potential" that was there before Xbox launched. Also, how many of those in your list are confirmed and target the Japanese demographic? Final Fantasy is probably the "biggest" one from that POV - and to suggest that a port of a what... 3 year old game will make any impact on that market is surreal. In fact, I'd say the people a Final Fantasy port would be very dependant of have already all played FFXI in Japan on PS2.

already have: No doubt the Xbox has western targeted RPGs. Seems to me you don't really know what Japanese turn-based RPGs are like - you being a Xbox owner, I'm really not surprised and this illustrates my point even further. Question: Have you ever played a Final Fantasy game, let alone any of the other Japanese flagship RPGs like i.e. Xenosaga?

If you have, I have no doubt you can think of reasons for yourself what makes those games different from the western aimed ones like Fable and that we are speaking of two different types of RPGs aimed at a very different audience - an audience that yet isn't that apparent on Xbox given that there are none on the system.

Yeah, you're right - I did change my argument [Not].

As to you asking for proof of that "anomoly" - do YOU have proof pointing to the contrary? Of course you don't - how could you. Silly me for even asking. I did however post reasons as to what points to that conclusion. If you look very hard and concentrate, I'm sure you'll find the answers already posted somewhere in this very thread!

Phil you're obviously to stubborn to even admit the possibility of SE doing this, so I see no point in arguing.

Your blind ******ism probably prohibited you of reading this quote:

The thing is, I see no reason Square to fully support Xbox360 unless they do make an impact - which means Microsoft will have to make an impact first before they hope for any big support. It's not the otherway around unfortunately, unless you can explain why Square-Enix would happily support a successor of a console that failed miserably. And don't name it's getting "more support" - there's no factual evidence on what "more support" will amount to. It's anyone's guess at the moment. It's up to Microsoft and its Xbox360 to prove that they can become a success [in Japan] and then I could see ports of the next Final Fantasy being considered.

And guess what, it really is anyone's guess at the moment! No imaginary success of Xbox360 in the year x with a userbase of y is going to make it factual. Only time will show. I already made it clear what I think will happen: That is, Final Fantasy XIII on PS3 sometime in 2007 if not 2008 and a port for Xbox360 perhaps considered if they manage to make a larger impact in Japan. Before I'd see that happening though, I'd see them putting out another Final Fantasy game on Revolution if any. But we'll see. I have bookmarked your posts though - just to be ready to bring them up one day and see who was right? Deal?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well it's nice to see you admitting it's within the realm of possibility at least. I don't think it depends solely on the X360's success in Japan though, even if it isn't a huge success in japan I think a strong worldwide presence could be enough for SE to develop a FF for 360, that's mainly where we disagree.

Lost Odyssey is being released next year, and that will probably be the measuring stick SE uses to gauge interest in JRPGS. If lost odyssey sells multi-millions then I wouldn't be surprised to see SE do a FF for 360.

 

[one]

The most recent ANALyst views on 360 in Japan

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2005/12/06/afx2374088.html

OUTLOOK - Japan a tough market for Microsoft's Xbox 360 to penetrate

TOKYO (AFX) - Despite the strong debut of its Xbox 360 in the US, Microsoft Corp is likely to struggle to displace well-entrenched incumbents in the Japanese video-game console market when it launches the Xbox 360 here at the weekend, analysts said.

Microsoft will start selling the Xbox 360 here on Saturday at 37,900 yen.

...

But analysts are doubtful about Microsoft's chances.

'No one -- consumers or software makers -- has been talking about the Xbox 360 lately, although we only have a couple of days before the release,' Tokai Tokyo Research Center analyst Nobuyuki Kawamata said.

'Given also the fact that basic functions of Xbox 360 are inferior to Sony's next-generation machine, and that there are not many newly-developed titles ready for the Japanese launch, Xbox 360 is not likely to become a must-buy console here in Japan,' Kawamata said.

Hirotoshi Murakami, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, also believes the Xbox 360's prospects here are gloomy.

'We had previously thought that Xbox 360 could gain a major share of the Japanese market by taking some market share from front-runner Sony Computer,' Murakami said. 'But we now think that such a prospect may not be realized, given the limited attractiveness of its titles and its lukewarm functions.'

'Given declining enthusiasm for the Xbox 360 by Japanese players and software makers, it would be almost impossible for Microsoft to overtake Sony or even Nintendo,' said Shinko Securities analyst Yuichi Kobayashi.

'Even from the global viewpoint, unless Sony fails to bring the next-generation PlayStation 3 consoles to the market on time, Microsoft appears to have almost no chance to be the industry leader,' he added.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Not surprising seeing as the launch line-up is very weak for Japan.

I expect their tune will change when Ninety Nine Nights, DOA 4, Ninja Gaiden 2, Enchant Arm, Chromehounds, Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey are all released next year.