While I don't think this is necessarily too different than the dx8 -> dx9 leap in terms of time-frame, I do think the bar for adoption is pretty high. I just upgraded my rig in the fall, but to get a dx10 rig going I'd need at minimum:
Vista
DX10 card
new monster power supply (really, 700 watts, this is madness)
new case (card wouldn't fit)
new board (card would crash right into the SB heatsink)
Which is what, $1500? This compared to DX9 -- the month I thought HL2 was coming out I bought a 9800pro for 300 bucks and popped it in -- voila!
And then I waited a year for HL2, but that's neither here nor there.
Vista
DX10 card
new monster power supply (really, 700 watts, this is madness)
new case (card wouldn't fit)
new board (card would crash right into the SB heatsink)
Which is what, $1500? This compared to DX9 -- the month I thought HL2 was coming out I bought a 9800pro for 300 bucks and popped it in -- voila!
And then I waited a year for HL2, but that's neither here nor there.