Date of availability of dev kits, an indication of final power?

[clem64]

I have a question I thought I'd run by you guys.

I was debating on another board that the fact that there are only 3 months seperating when the final kits for 360 and PS3 are being delivered, that it doesn't necessarily mean that the technology in the two systems will be 3 months apart. I was told that since the kits are FINAL, the PS3 will only be 3 months ahead in the technology curve.

To me the date that the final kits are shipping has nothing to do with the power of the hardware. For example Sony could have designed a machine that would be too powerful, and too expensive to market in nov 2005, but for which the manufacturing cost would be just right if marketed in nov 2006. And since they already know the specs the machine will have when released at the end of next year, it doesn't stop them from shipping final PS3 dev kits in december 2005, which means that the PS3 could still 'potentially' be one year ahead in the technology curve. I'm not saying it will be, just that it could be.

Am I right or am I wrong?

 

[Alpha_Spartan]

I believe my sig says it all...

 

[kyleb]

I don't see how any more than three angels could dance on the head of a pin.

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

Correlation is not causation. Yes, you're right. Just because it's coming out later doesn't mean it'll be more powerful, les, or about the same. It's just there tends to be a trend, for two main reasons. 1) If you're coming out after your competition you darn well better be more impressive somehow. 2) Later means cheaper prices for same power, so it should be feasible to see an up in power. Now, is this causation? NO. However, there's definately some logical correlations that can be made.

 

[Powderkeg]

I have a question I thought I'd run by you guys.

I was debating on another board that the fact that there are only 3 months seperating when the final kits for 360 and PS3 are being delivered, that it doesn't necessarily mean that the technology in the two systems will be 3 months apart. I was told that since the kits are FINAL, the PS3 will only be 3 months ahead in the technology curve.

To me the date that the final kits are shipping has nothing to do with the power of the hardware. For example Sony could have designed a machine that would be too powerful, and too expensive to market in nov 2005, but for which the manufacturing cost would be just right if marketed in nov 2006. And since they already know the specs the machine will have when released at the end of next year, it doesn't stop them from shipping final PS3 dev kits in december 2005, which means that the PS3 could still 'potentially' be one year ahead in the technology curve. I'm not saying it will be, just that it could be.

Am I right or am I wrong?

"Power" is such an ambiguous term when it comes to consoles that it's really impossible to make a direct comparison with a different architecture. Time of release is even less important since no console is using cutting edge, spare-no-expense hardware. The only thing you could conclude from the time frame of shipping dev kits is how long the developers have to get launch titles ready, and even that can't be compared based on final hardware dev kits.

 

[zidane1strife]

Correlation is not causation. Yes, you're right. Just because it's coming out later doesn't mean it'll be more powerful, les, or about the same. It's just there tends to be a trend, for two main reasons. 1) If you're coming out after your competition you darn well better be more impressive somehow. 2) Later means cheaper prices for same power, so it should be feasible to see an up in power. Now, is this causation? NO. However, there's definately some logical correlations that can be made.

I would imagine(note: I said imagine.) that as the fab.s get better with a particular process(more mature),more aggressive designs can be implemented at a later date given improved yields, despite being on the same process. Sony's been at 90nm for quite a long time so I'd imagine they're now where tsmc will be by the first half of next year.

 

[scooby_dooby]

If you use the premise that both companies have the same amount of money to spend, then sony should be able to get more for their money, true. However, X360 has a large cost advantage from the DVD drive.

So any money saved by launching 5 months later is probably more than offset by the estimated $100 pricetag on the BR drives.

Also, regardless of when PS3 is released, it's based on a GPU that was released in Q3 2005.

 

[clem64]

If you use the premise that both companies have the same amount of money to spend, then sony should be able to get more for their money, true. However, X360 has a large cost advantage from the DVD drive.

So any money saved by launching 5 months later is probably more than offset by the estimated $100 pricetag on the BR drives.

That's a good point. I hadn't thought of that. I've also heard that read times in this 1x BR drive won't be that great. The only real advantage seems to be space. It kinda makes you wonder if it was a good idea to go with a next gen format or if it would have been better to stick with a faster DVD drive. But that's a whole other debate entirely.

Also, regardless of when PS3 is released, it's based on a GPU that was released in Q3 2005.

Ok but how much of an impact does that have really on the final design? Maybe the design is based on an earlier model but I'm sure it was finalized later then the GPU you're reffering to (the 7800 was it?), I'm guessing slightly prior to the dev kits shipping. And even if it was the same design, it doesn't prevent them from beefing up the specs to make the GPU appropriate for either a May or nov 2006 release.

 

[EpicZero]

Also, regardless of when PS3 is released, it's based on a GPU that was released in Q3 2005.

Wasn't the X360 GPU taped out last November?

 

[threepac3]

If you use the premise that both companies have the same amount of money to spend, then sony should be able to get more for their money, true. However, X360 has a large cost advantage from the DVD drive.

So any money saved by launching 5 months later is probably more than offset by the estimated $100 pricetag on the BR drives.

Also, regardless of when PS3 is released, it's based on a GPU that was released in Q3 2005.

Why with every disadvantage, bad decision, or misrepresentation on behalf of MS; do you try to restate, clarefy, or equate to something reguarding PS3? Do you feel responsible for everything that goes wrong with the x360, so you must fix it?

 

[compres]

Why with every disadvantage, bad decision, or misrepresentation on behalf of MS; do you try to restate, clarefy, or equate to something reguarding PS3? Do you feel responsible for everything that goes wrong with the x360, so you must fix it?

What is it exactly that you are trying to say?

 

[LunchBox]

Wasn't the X360 GPU taped out last November?

yes i believe so...

 

[Powderkeg]

NV2A for the Xbox taped out 10 months before the xbox launched.

Xenos taped out 12 months before the 360 launch.

If RSX hasn't even taped out yet there will be no spring launch for the PS3.

 

[gmoran]

I have a question I thought I'd run by you guys.

To me the date that the final kits are shipping has nothing to do with the power of the hardware. For example Sony could have designed a machine that would be too powerful, and too expensive to market in nov 2005, but for which the manufacturing cost would be just right if marketed in nov 2006. And since they already know the specs the machine will have when released at the end of next year, it doesn't stop them from shipping final PS3 dev kits in december 2005, which means that the PS3 could still 'potentially' be one year ahead in the technology curve. I'm not saying it will be, just that it could be.

Am I right or am I wrong?

The increase in processor power over time is not a smooth progression, rather it is stepped to coincide with each generation. To really leverage a dramatic increase in power between the release of one product and another then you want to be on the right side of that processor generation, in the way the Xbox was in relation to PS2.

PS3 and XB360 look to me to be of the same generation.