I suppose within the next 3-5 years, somebody will come out with a GPU that can do proper raytracing, so it can be used on a practical level, in games.
I am completely impressed with the saarcor chip. it slaughters the NV40-GeForce 6800 in what it can do well, raytracing. I'm sure the GeForce 6800 can be made to do raytracing of some sort. but it will never compare well to the effiecency of the 90 Mhz, 1-pipeline saarcor chip. because NV40 was not
designed with raytracing in mind.
once the saarcor chip is perfected, I hope it can be scaled up massively, and used either as a stand alone co-processor, or as part of a new GPU by some major graphics vendor. (ImgTech PowerVR maybe
)
I'd also like to see more competition in this field. rivals to the saarcor technology.
It will also be interesting to see how Cell processors can be programmed to run raytracing. if Cell is any better than conventional CPUs, GPUs and this saarcor chip.
in the mid to late 1990s, the big thing for consumer PC graphics chips to have was geometry processing (T&L). we had 3D acceleration, but not full polygon processors. the CPU had to do the front end stuff. workstation processors had on-chip (on the chip level) or on board (on the card level) geometry processing. it wasn't until late 1999 that PC graphics chips got on-chip geometry processing. The NV10-GeForce256 and to a much lesser extent of importance, the Savage 2000 (i think that's the Savage that got T&L)... T&L wasnt really used until 2000 or 2001. workstations and arcade boards had it since the early to mid 1990s (SGI, E&S, 3DLabs, Sega Model 2, Model 3, Namco System 22, etc etc).
so now, as we're at the start of the middle part of this decade, (about the same time as we started to get 3D acceleration in the last decade), we are seeing the first attempts at raytracing in hardware. chips designed with raytracing in mind. I predict that by 2008-2009, we will have consumer 3D hardware built around raytracing, of some sort. be it a raytracing co-processor, a raytracing unit within a conventional or semi-conventional rasterizing GPU/VPU, or even a full blown raytracing GPU.