Console sale predictions *spawn

[London Geezer]

PS4 And Xbox One Expected To Sell 69 And 39 Million Units By 2019

http://www.ubergizmo.com/2016/04/ps4-and-xbox-one-expected-to-sell-69-and-39-million-units-by-2019/

 

[Shortbread]

PS4 And Xbox One Expected To Sell 69 And 39 Million Units By 2019

http://www.ubergizmo.com/2016/04/ps4-and-xbox-one-expected-to-sell-69-and-39-million-units-by-2019/

That seems pretty low on the PS4 side. The PS4 is already at 39-40 million units sold. And more than likely will be at 50-52 million by years end. So yeah, those estimates suck...

 

[London Geezer]

I was thinking of calculating how many they'd sell if they manage 1 million a month until the end of 2019, but then I'd have to count how many months that is and right now I'm way too intoxicated to do that.

 

[BRiT]

I was thinking of calculating how many they'd sell if they manage 1 million a month until the end of 2019, but then I'd have to count how many months that is and right now I'm way too intoxicated to do that.

Clicky: http://www.timeanddate.com/counters...ar=2020&month=1&day=1&hour=0&min=0&sec=0&p0=0


Less smart-assy = 3 years 8 months 21 days ~= (3*12) + 9 ~= 45 months until Jan 1, 2020.

That would put em at around 85 million if they average 1 million a month until Jan 1, 2020.

 

[Shortbread]

PS4 yearly breakdown looks something like this...

2013: 4.2 million units sold during that year.
2014: 14.3 million units sold during that year. Or averaging about 1.2 million a month.
2015: ~17.3 million units sold during that year. Or averaging more than 1.4 million a month.

 

[BRiT]

Maybe they're taking into account the release of PS4K, so sales of PS4 slow ...

 

[Scott_Arm]

Maybe they expect some kind of market saturation and for sales to slow at some point? 2020 would be close to a new hardware cycle. Did PS360 taper off in the year before next-gen?

 

[Shortbread]

Maybe they're taking into account the release of PS4K, so sales of PS4 slow ...

With PSVR rounding the corner, I would think PS4 sales will actually increase, especially when the entry price system (PS4) will probably drop to about $299 when PS4K arrives. I don't see the average / casual consumer paying $500 dollars for a few extra bells and whistles.

Maybe they expect some kind of market saturation and for sales to slow at some point? 2020 would be close to a new hardware cycle. Did PS360 taper off in the year before next-gen?

PS3 sales tapered off quite a bit, XB360 sales were still pretty strong.

I'm thinking PS4 with the combination of PSVR will keep the PS4 numbers quite high for some time.

 

[Niebotskick]

Complete nonsense estimate for PS4. At the rate it's currently selling, it's highly likely it will be much higher than 69 million by 2019. It should be doable to sell upwards of 50 million by the end of this year alone, if you take into account how much it sold during the previous fiscal year, this year's line-up of games, and the fact that it still has to reach its peak in sales. On top of that, there hasn't been a slim model yet, and there are still price reductions between now and 2019, which will definitely affect sales.

 

[Egmon83]

If there is a PS4K (not PS4.5) Xbox fans will claim that it's not fair to add them up, and in....... 4 years? They will say: Look Xbox One has surpassed the PS4!! They will change the wikipedia to reflect that. Our grandchildren will never now how hard PS4 dominated
That's why the PS4K should not have a suffix. Just call it PS4 and put a 4K sticker on the box.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If there is a PS4K (not PS4.5) Xbox fans will claim that it's not fair to add them up, and in....... 4 years? They will say: Look Xbox One has surpassed the PS4!! They will change the wikipedia to reflect that. Our grandchildren will never now how hard PS4 dominated
That's why the PS4K should not have a suffix. Just call it PS4 and put a 4K sticker on the box.

I'm getting pretty pissed off with the childishness starting to pervade the console forum. There's too much talk about fanboys and attitudes, rather than sticking to the actual, intelligent conversation. A little here and there is expected and tolerated (sometimes its funny), but some people seem more interested in talking about the console wars than the consoles. I'm going to start getting hard-core if necesssary.

 

[Shortbread]

I'm going to start getting hard-core if necesssary.

*crickets* waiting for London-boy zinger *crickets*

 

[bunge]

I'm getting pretty pissed off with the childishness starting to pervade the console forum. There's too much talk about fanboys and attitudes, rather than sticking to the actual, intelligent conversation. A little here and there is expected and tolerated (sometimes its funny), but some people seem more interested in talking about the console wars than the consoles. I'm going to start getting hard-core if necesssary.

Colecovision > Atari 7800.

 

[Pixel]

Maybe they are expecting an upcoming economic slowdown. A ripple effect of China slowdown impacting America.

 

[Egmon83]

Or they are factoring in the PS4K accounting for a few million units itself

 

[Shifty Geezer]

PS4K would count as PS4 sales if it still runs PS4 software. But no-one should be factoring PS4K sales into predictions at this point because it's presently a myth. The report is a group called Wargaming (?) who compiled their data from sales sources, so it's just a standard speculation with no long-shot predictions.

 

[Egmon83]

Come to think of it; sales predictions have historically never been super accurate. But they are often very funny, see this example:

they probably didn't realise it themselves but this graph represents + 600.000.000 combined PS4/XB1 consoles sold in 2024

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Quote from article :

It's important to note that console sales patterns decidedly do not work in this way, and it's a bit ridiculous to expect annual sales to continue increasing in this kind of parabolic curve.

It was a graph for illustrative purposes only.

The morale here being "Google Image Search doesn't negate the need for reading."

 

[London Geezer]

PLEASE MAKE IT STOP. BRAIN HURTS.

 

[temesgen]

Quote from article :
It was a graph for illustrative purposes only.

The morale here being "Google Image Search doesn't negate the need for reading."

Protip - if Shifty invites you into an alley for a conversation blow your safety whistle